Hi,
I'm late to this discussion but had a similar issue with 250k pts. I had planned to pay for economy and use points for upgrade on a return European trip. I booked and paid for the economy flights the first day they were available (nearly a year in advance) but could not get any upgrades on either leg of outward or return trip. I was very flexible with the actual cities and also with the travel dates (3-week window in July 2014).
Since my points were expiring, I was forced to "buy" business class seats with points on the shorter legs of the journey, then got whacked obscene amounts for taxes and "airline charges".
Can't win: QF won't tell me until an hour before the flight if my upgrade request was successful (a bit late to change your plans then; how contemptuous). EK tells you before making the booking (good) but counters by not having any availability a year in advance. And you have to waste a lot of time with phone calls to discover this information.
Time for a change ...