35% discount on AA miles

[Mattg]

Until 1 June, AA is again offering a discount on miles purchased. 35% discount (effectively the same as a 70% bonus) on purchases over 15,000 miles.

 

[JohnK]

I tried doing the numbers on this promotion last night. The best I could get was still >USD0.02 per mile? It seems no matter which way they promote the selling of miles the end result is the same.

Has someone done a much more detailed analysis?

 

[sergeyvzn]

I tried doing the numbers on this promotion last night. The best I could get was still >USD0.02 per mile? It seems no matter which way they promote the selling of miles the end result is the same.

Has someone done a much more detailed analysis?

no more detailed analysis but it;s still worth buying them at the maximum discount to redeem on JAL F flights from Sydney to Tokyo - 120K x $0.02USD is roughly $3.3 AUD + taxes...so it's about $3.5K return which is an excellent value. East Coast -Perth still makes sense at 40k return in J

the rest isn't that great any more after the devaluation

 

[RooFlyer]

I tried doing the numbers on this promotion last night. The best I could get was still >USD0.02 per mile? It seems no matter which way they promote the selling of miles the end result is the same.

Has someone done a much more detailed analysis?

Yes, One Mile at a Time regularly reports on this and values the offers and miles themselves. Current offer discussion here.

Including:

As far as the relative value of this promotion goes, this is significantly less than American used to sell miles for pre-devaluation. However, in April American sold miles for as little as ~1.81 cents each, which is less than they’re selling them for now. So while this is more expensive than what they charged last time, it’s otherwise the lowest cost at which they’ve sold miles in a long time

 

[Mattg]

Still worthwhile for SYD-PER in J, or Australia to Asia in J/F (for example). Off the top of my head, SYD-PER return in J would be just over $1000 using miles bought during this promotion.

 

[JohnK]

Still worthwhile for SYD-PER in J, or Australia to Asia in J/F (for example). Off the top of my head, SYD-PER return in J would be just over $1000 using miles bought during this promotion.

Assuming you don't care about accumulating status?

I could be wrong but looks like one-way business class SYD-SE Asia now costs ~AUD1200 buying miles and redeeming which some would see as a good deal but then you don't earn any SCs on an award.

I don't see ~AUS1200 as having any value if one forfeits say Platinum status. The value was there when it cost ~AUD750 for the one-way business class redemption.

 

[Mattg]

Assuming you don't care about accumulating status?

I could be wrong but looks like one-way business class SYD-SE Asia now costs ~AUD1200 buying miles and redeeming which some would see as a good deal but then you don't earn any SCs on an award.

I don't see ~AUS1200 as having any value if one forfeits say Platinum status. The value was there when it cost ~AUD750 for the one-way business class redemption.

I make it to be under AU$1050 for a one-way business redemption SYD-HND (or PER-SYD-HND, AKL-SYD-HND, etc.) - I don't think that's too shabby...

I do care about status, but it's not the be all and end all. There's no real need for status when you're flying J/F anyway. (Although I will admit that it would be nice to access the SYD F lounge when flying J from there.)

 

[sergeyvzn]

As above - no need to SC if you only travel J/F

 

[JohnK]

I make it to be under AU$1050 for a one-way business redemption SYD-HND (or PER-SYD-HND, AKL-SYD-HND, etc.) - I don't think that's too shabby...

I do care about status, but it's not the be all and end all. There's no real need for status when you're flying J/F anyway. (Although I will admit that it would be nice to access the SYD F lounge when flying J from there.)

I made it out to be a little more for SYD-BKK. Doesn't 40,000 AA miles cost ~USD855 which converts to ~AUD1140 + AUD100 taxes and surcharges?

Status is not the end all and be all but I do a lot of domestic travel where status is essential. No point me looking at these promotions unless the AUD strengthens and the miles are sold cheaper.

Sorry that's all I was trying to work out.

 

[Mattg]

I made it out to be a little more for SYD-BKK. Doesn't 40,000 AA miles cost ~USD855 which converts to ~AUD1140 + AUD100 taxes and surcharges?

Status is not the end all and be all but I do a lot of domestic travel where status is essential. No point me looking at these promotions unless the AUD strengthens and the miles are sold cheaper.

Sorry that's all I was trying to work out.

You're quite right - I forgot to take the U.S. excise tax and processing fee into account.

Still a pretty good deal though if you're able to max out the miles when redeeming them.

 

[sergeyvzn]

I made it out to be a little more for SYD-BKK. Doesn't 40,000 AA miles cost ~USD855 which converts to ~AUD1140 + AUD100 taxes and surcharges?

Status is not the end all and be all but I do a lot of domestic travel where status is essential. No point me looking at these promotions unless the AUD strengthens and the miles are sold cheaper.

Sorry that's all I was trying to work out.

SYD-BKK will be 40K *0.0189USD (that's the lowest cost if you buy the whole lot of 150K at 35% discount + 15K bonus, it costs you $3,122.02 USD including fees and taxes) = $756USD at 0.74USD per AUD it's $1021 AUD + $100 AUD of taxes = about $1150 AUD all in all

but I wouldn't use it for J, F is much better value on JAL say to Tokyo, in fact it's an outstanding value at roughly 1/3 of the price of a cash fare

 

[JohnK]

but I wouldn't use it for J, F is much better value on JAL say to Tokyo, in fact it's an outstanding value at roughly 1/3 of the price of a cash fare

Point taken. Tokyo is no use to me when the wife is in Chiang Mai and the golf is in Pattaya.

AUD1500 is my limit per trip which will reduce considerably when the wife gets residency here. My convoluted routings are in jeopardy.

 

[sergeyvzn]

Point taken. Tokyo is no use to me when the wife is in Chiang Mai and the golf is in Pattaya.

AUD1500 is my limit per trip which will reduce considerably when the wife gets residency here. My convoluted routings are in jeopardy.

John, you should then be using Lifemiles!!

Now at the 125% bonus (the sale is on) the mile cost is 0.0147 USD per mile

SYD to BKK is 40K, it works out 40K x 0.0147 / 0.74 = $795 AUD + tax of $100 AUD = about $900 AUD

or pay a bit more and fly Thai F for 60K - seats are available all the time

 

[trippin_the_rift]

Assuming you don't care about accumulating status?

I could be wrong but looks like one-way business class SYD-SE Asia now costs ~AUD1200 buying miles and redeeming which some would see as a good deal but then you don't earn any SCs on an award.

I don't see ~AUS1200 as having any value if one forfeits say Platinum status. The value was there when it cost ~AUD750 for the one-way business class redemption.

I wouldn't use AA miles for AU<->Asia. CX and AS programs both offer much more value.
AS is under $1000 one way still.

As for status - it's largely meaningless if you're in biz class.

 

[MikeG]

I'm a complete and utter newby to this. Have an AA membership, AA return flights SYD-LAX and DFW-SYD in economy.

do you think purchasing AA points for the upgrade would be cost effective?

 

[sergeyvzn]

I'm a complete and utter newby to this. Have an AA membership, AA return flights SYD-LAX and DFW-SYD in economy.

do you think purchasing AA points for the upgrade would be cost effective?

no

Almost no chance unless your flights are 11 months out or in the next couple of days

 

[MikeG]

Can you explain why?

 

[JohnK]

I wouldn't use AA miles for AU<->Asia. CX and AS programs both offer much more value.
AS is under $1000 one way still.

As for status - it's largely meaningless if you're in biz class.

Status is handy for 60+ domestic flights but Lifetime Gold helps there.

 

[sergeyvzn]

Can you explain why?

No availability

 

[RooFlyer]

Can you explain why?

As sergeyvzn indicated, there is poor availability of the business seats able to be upgraded to from a lower class. Upgrades to business (and business 'award' seats) on Australia-USA routes are in very high demand and get snapped up very early and/or are given to high status holders first.

I buy AA miles only when there is good value (ie a high Australian dollar and/or a substantial bonus element. The current one isn't bad, but it was terrific when the $ was above parity! I also use the miles only for niche applications, such as Etihad First cabin, but there's nothing wrong with buying them for 'everyday' flights, as long as the probability of success in using them is OK.