AFF Member Stock Discussion

[Mr_Orange]

Anyone looking at Monash ivf MVF ?

Down 36% yesterday = -$150m . Not logical wrt liability cost, so clearly market concern...what will the impact on revenue/profit be (medium term)? 1H25 earnings results up 10% EBITDA $35m ("underlying", so excludes eg litigation )

I.e. what's their reputation like in the industry, and how much will this incident affect that? Will doctors start saying...safer elsewhere?

And in regards to the zygote mixup, I hope that they payup big time.

Irrespective of recent news, MVF hasn't been a buy since May last year.

 

[Quickstatus]

I.e. what's their reputation like in the industry, and how much will this incident affect that? Will doctors start saying...safer elsewhere?

Reputation I don't know, but bad news travel fast. It appears to be an isolated incident and extremely rare. The problem is also latent in every IVF clinic - it is impossible for human error to be zero as they all handle human tissue and embryos in very similar ways. Possibly they will see a drop in business as patients will go somewhere. There are other IVF clinics: IVf Australia, Melbourne IVF, and some others.

And in regards to the zygote mixup, I hope that they payup big time.

Australian legislation says presumptively birth parents are the actual parents. What is not tested in the courts is the extent "genetic" parents have any claim on the baby when there is a mistake. Secondly, the mistake will almost certainly be covered by mandatory indemnity insurance for any tort claim brought by the genetic parents against MVF.

 

[prozac]

Reputation I don't know, but bad news travel fast. It appears to be an isolated incident and extremely rare. The problem is also latent in every IVF clinic - it is impossible for human error to be zero as they all handle human tissue and embryos in very similar ways. Possibly they will see a drop in business as patients will go somewhere. There are other IVF clinics: IVf Australia, Melbourne IVF, and some others.




Australian legislation says presumptively birth parents are the actual parents. What is not tested in the courts is the extent "genetic" parents have any claim on the baby when there is a mistake. Secondly, the mistake will almost certainly be covered by mandatory indemnity insurance for any tort claim brought by the genetic parents against MVF.

What I heard on radio today, with regards to recent IVF mix-up case was the birth parents may have to apply to adopt the baby. In doing so they might need to obtain permission of the couple that owned the embryo.

 

[moa999]

what's their reputation like in the industry, a

Think it's more that reputation is very important in the industry, particularly at the more high margin clinics.

Not from personal experience, but I understand it's a pretty opaque industry with a lot of money spent on marketing and sales tactics with lots of jargon.

 

[cove]

Well both silver and gold prices have moved up so that would make jewellery a bit more expensive. Then we have diamonds being produced in laboratories.
Now we have oil prices moving down so that should reduce inflation.
Seeing all the travel groups share prices falling in Australia may mean more of us are going to travel less.

 

[tgh]

more of us are going to travel less

Indeed.. I am not easy to spook but I am considering some financial doomsday what ifs.. need to put my head in a hole to shut out the noise

 

[prozac]

Well both silver and gold prices have moved up so that would make jewellery a bit more expensive. Then we have diamonds being produced in laboratories.
Now we have oil prices moving down so that should reduce inflation.
Seeing all the travel groups share prices falling in Australia may mean more of us are going to travel less.

Morgan Stanley has lowered its Brent forecast to between $62.5 and $65 per barrel for the remainder of the year.

Reduced airfares?

 

[cove]

Well @tgh we have 2 trips to the US and 1 trip to the Uk booked. Then we have trips to Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Gold Coast in the works.
This year will be my 58th year in the stock market so I have seen a lot since I was 17.
Be brave and ignore much of the noise.

 

[andye]

@Dr.Ralph .. only tells us about his wins, as a professional gambler there must be losses .
Gambling is a skill and many folks , with applied intelligence and discipline, do win more than lose.
I suspect that I could also win more than lose when gambling with something I knew a bit about….but lack the discipline (inclination)…...
..after the cats beat the crows last night ( against the odds) I might start practising on the footy…. just for fun

People often liken the stock market to gambling but, unlike the TAB, over time the average investor usually wins.

Passive investing which requires almost zero knowledge wins quite comfortably over almost any 10 year time frame.

It also means even a pretty ordinary trader (as long as they diversify a bit) will make money, confirming their own belief in their prowess.

A very informed investor may beat the passive one as long as they don't spend too much on trading fees, but there is a time-investment in acquiring their knowledge

 

[clifford]

Indeed, but then I have almost zero exposure to the share market. Over 40 years ago I struck me that gold might be a worthwhie investment, and so it appears to have been.

We shall see. No one can anticipate what the enlightened people allegedly running the USA might do, Thankfully I have no plans to ever go there again (despite being UA*G for life), so I'll be watching it and smiling from a distance.

 

[clifford]

People often liken the stock market to gambling but, unlike the TAB, over time the average investor usually wins.

Passive investing which requires almost zero knowledge wins quite comfortably over almost any 10 year time frame.

It also means even a pretty ordinary trader (as long as they diversify a bit) will make money, confirming their own belief in their prowess.

A very informed investor may beat the passive one as long as they don't spend too much on trading fees, but there is a time-investment in acquiring their knowledge

Gambling. This is what life has taught me.

35 years ago (or so) I was working in an area where they had a footy (NRL) tipping competition. As you might imagine, I'm not well versed in such things, but I did pay my money on a weekly basis, and then did absolutely nothing, just let it go with the flow.

As it happened, the rule was that if you didn't submit your tips for the week, you were presumed to have backed the away teams for all matches (fair enough). Well this went on until almost the end of the season, when one of my colleagues mentioned that I was winning the comp (to their chagrin). So from then on in I just backed the favourites and won the comp (and about $700).

So I thought, there may be a lesson there... gambing is a mug's game.

 

[tgh]

Life is a gamble and we make calls on the odds every day, we mostly don't think of it that way.
When the lights turn green, you don't know if some dunderhead is going to clean you up..you just hope not.. and you have therefore made a call
There is more to it than just guessing the odds, and we actually have some instinctive built in help if we pay attention….

Being brave, ignoring the noise, and putting head in the sand.. seems a recipe for financial disaster.
Just like my notes above..survivors calculate the odds and make calls ; ignoring the noise reduces the information available for making calls.
Placing value on available input without emotion, and making calls, is basic survival… I opine….