AA's future

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Nick85

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I’m pretty worried about AA’s future. I’ve read a lot of negative news about AA in the last week which seems to suggest the airline in crumbling and won’t make it out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Each year, 24/7 Wall St. identifies 10 important American brands they predict will disappear within a year. AA tops their list – see below. Apparently, in previous years, the lists have been relatively accurate.

“American Airlines will disappear in 2013 because of its inefficiency. It was the premier carrier in the United States for almost 30 years — even surviving through periods when most other carriers went bankrupt. However, it lost its critical advantage of scale when Northwest merged with Delta (NYSE: DAL) and Continental merged with United (NYSE: UAL). Within two years, American became a medium-sized carrier.”

1. American Airlines

“American’s parent AMR filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Nov. 2011. The airline itself still operates largely as it did prior to the filing, but with some of the advantages the bankruptcy of a parent brings. Labor costs will be cut, along with debt service and lease obligations for airplanes. AMR says it plans to emerge from Chapter 11 as a viable airline. But that will not happen. US Airways (NYSE: LCC) already has made it clear that it wants to buy American’s assets. As soon as the rumors of a potential buyout started in April, some of American’s largest unions said they backed such a plan as a way to protect jobs. Earlier this month, US Airways CEO Doug Parker announced his desire to merge the two airlines. With US Airways probably willing to give AMR’s creditors a good deal to get American’s assets, the potential deal received tremendous support from bondholders and analysts. US Airways has much to gain from this transaction, as its position in the carrier market has been eroded by the mergers of Northwest and Delta and the later combination of United and Continental”

What are peoples thoughts? I really like AA and fly them at least 2-3 times a year. It would be a major blow to oneworld of they disappeared.
 
What are peoples thoughts? I really like AA and fly them at least 2-3 times a year. It would be a major blow to oneworld of they disappeared.

Without knowing much about anything really, just other mergers and such, it's unlikely if they were bought by US that they'd leave OneWorld. I'd imagine they'd need regulatory approval for a start, and I'm sure 3 major carriers in the states, one in each alliance, would make more sense than 2 in Star Alliance, 1 in Sky Team and none in OneWorld...

That's not even looking at the figures which show that Delta lost $1.9 billion last year, while AA made $308 million. United also made $1.8 billion, so just because they're not a giant airline doesn't mean they're screwed.
 
Anyone else find it ironic that US airways stock exchange is LCC?:p
 
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What are peoples thoughts? I really like AA and fly them at least 2-3 times a year. It would be a major blow to oneworld of they disappeared.
24/7 has been wrong in their predictions before, in this case, even the statement implies elements which are incorrect.

US CEO Parker has stated he would like to merge US and AA, but has also stated the merged entity would be called "American Airlines", have it's HQ in Texas and would continue to be a part of "oneworld".

US and AA may indeed merge, but not on Parker's terms. I see if it happens that it would be occurring:

1) After AA emerges from CH11 "bankruptcy", and
2) it will be AA taking over US, not the other way.
 
Also worth noting it would be stupid for US to take them while they're in protection, because the unions are on their side, as that'll only add to their future costs... and I can't imagine anyone thinks that's a good idea, from a business standpoint.
 
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As an interesting side note, a number of USAirways stock holders have also been buying AMR debt recently, presumably positioning themselves for a debt-to-equity swap when AMR emerges. (In fact US's number 1 shareholder seems to be leading the pack in buying AMR debt.)

IAG is holding its cards close to its chest at the moment, but may also want to take some sort of equity position in the emerged carrier, to help secure its North American position.
 
Anyone else find it ironic that US airways stock exchange is LCC?:p

If I'm not mistaken, after US merged with America West in the mid-2000's, the CEO Doug Parker wanted to make the whole thing a low cost carrier and changed the ticker symbol to reflect this. They even started charging for water and putting ads on the tray tables. Customer backlash made them return to free water, but the ticker symbol remains.
 
If I'm not mistaken, after US merged with America West in the mid-2000's, the CEO Doug Parker wanted to make the whole thing a low cost carrier and changed the ticker symbol to reflect this. They even started charging for water and putting ads on the tray tables. Customer backlash made them return to free water, but the ticker symbol remains.

You'd think there'd be a fee attached to changing a ticker symbol/buying whoever owns it already out, and thus, choosing LCC could be an expensive option, though that's just speculation :p
 
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