Airfares to US to drop?

[BCons]

The speed of change in US immigration posture (ICE hv detained/deported tourists/legal residents, universities advising oseas students to consider staying in US/not going home on hols) and the general anti-Trump vibe make me wonder if current Aus/USA airfares are about to face a revision. Doesnt bother me, I'm not going over there (and I'm not making a comment on the US, they can do what they want) but there are lots of media and SM stories to say tourism to the US is on the nose. Views ?

 

[Forg]

I dunno … very crystal-ball stuff, IMHO.
You may be right, there may be reduced holiday travel there, I couldn’t convince my wife to go at the moment.
But on the other hand, most people on hols travelling now would surely have bought tickets before The Almighty Orange One rose to seize his rightful throne, and I also think that sentiment will ease a bit in a few months and (as long as their borders remain open & they don’t descend into ructions) people will be happier to travel there again.

Put that all together, and I suspect that by the time holiday-travel to the US backs right off in a couple of months, people will then be buying tickets for travel by the 4th quarter again, so I don’t think there’s that much chance of deep discounting. But hey, I’ve been wrong before, April 2003 it was, slightly rainy day …

 

[BCons]

I dunno … very crystal-ball stuff, IMHO.
You may be right, there may be reduced holiday travel there, I couldn’t convince my wife to go at the moment.
But on the other hand, most people on hols travelling now would surely have bought tickets before The Almighty Orange One rose to seize his rightful throne, and I also think that sentiment will ease a bit in a few months and (as long as their borders remain open & they don’t descend into ructions) people will be happier to travel there again.

Put that all together, and I suspect that by the time holiday-travel to the US backs right off in a couple of months, people will then be buying tickets for travel by the 4th quarter again, so I don’t think there’s that much chance of deep discounting. But hey, I’ve been wrong before, April 2003 it was, slightly rainy day …

Sure, If you're booked then your're going, but I suspect (based on media reports that daily dont get better) that US will see a downturn in tourism. Airlines are usually pretty clever with their dynamic pricing, so that prompted me to hv a quick look and wonder if current fares will be revised because they looks expensive.

Nerds among us could probly set up a graph plotting the Dow/ASX200 index vs. a J round trip fare Syd/NY ?

 

[Aussie_flyer]

Here we go

 

[I love to travel]

I was only thinking last night it will be interesting to see the US tourism numbers this time next year. If they or we go into recession, then that will impact too.

 

[levelnine]

The US3 recently reported drops in forward bookings on domestic flights, due to cuts in government travel (around 50%) & consumer anxiety about air safety.

Weak AUD & concern about the political environment in the US certainly aren't bullish for travel from Australia to the US.

 

[mbell1510]

The weak Australian dollar is enough to put me off going back anytime soon. Went in November and had a great time but certainly felt the pinch for how poor our dollar is.

i feel the US is now for wealthy travellers.
Those budget hotels are what you'd expect to pay for a really nice one at home and the same for the shopping I found.

Certainly miss for the golden days of the early 2010s.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Such a great Q and such an interesting topic right now. I spent a few hours discussing affects of current US Admin on tourism with some Yankee friends and acquaintances in Shanghai past few days.

Surprise surprise views amongst group polar opposites - sounds like USA huh.

I expressed view ZERO chance I would visit USA with current Admin in power - a couple agreed and understood - 2 asked why and just could not understand.

As with most things in life all will be revealed in the fullness - but my $s will not be heading that way.

 

[Saab34]

Is still a bit of capacity coming in, we have Delta to launch Melbourne also.

I feel like the pacific could be more seasonal across the US carriers and routes, I think Brisbane-US is a bit over done at the moment thanks to subsidies.

Canada will likely pickup some of the slack, be good if AC started Melbourne again.

 

[jrfsp]

Certainly the Canadians and Europeans might be reassessing their US travel plans according to media reports, AU-US is a tiny market by comparison, but id imagine most people are put off by the exchange rates before even thinking about politics.

Interesting timing for project sunrise New York routes, might make the economics of those routes challenging if US fares drop.

 

[RSD]

Nerds among us could probly set up a graph plotting the Dow/ASX200 index vs. a J round trip fare Syd/NY ?

Might be an interesting idea - but probably to LAX instead of JFK

Also graph DT's polling numbers vs J round trips,

and AUD/USD vs J round trips

 

[Saab34]

Interesting timing for project sunrise New York routes, might make the economics of those routes challenging if US fares drop.

That project is more a long term game. Will always be ups and downs along the way, the downs might be at the start of that project by the looks. Once they get the full fleet delivered plus some stability after a few years the current US administration will be long gone.

 

[elanshin]

Whilst US inbound tourism will likely be affected, US outbound tourism is yet to be seen. As for any flight schedule decisions, those were made months ago (possibly even a year ago) so adjustment will probably take a bit to kick in.

We'll see how Q3-Q4 looks. After my trip last year as a holiday location, as others have suggested, its a big hit to the wallet. Just the hotel prices for 5 nights in NYC was the amount we paid for hotels, food and activities in an Asia (non Tokyo) trip.

Post automatically merged: Yesterday at 8:31 PM

Interesting timing for project sunrise New York routes, might make the economics of those routes challenging if US fares drop.

Sunrise will almost certainly be deployed as QF1 first and who knows maybe they'll deploy MEL - LHR if SYD - JFK looks flaky.

 

[MelbFlyer]

I last went to the U.S. in 2019 during the 1st Trump administration.

Yes, it's a different climate now politically, I wouldn't put off any plans / veto going, just because he's in power again and people don't agree with his policies etc.

With regards to aviation, if airfares go down / more premium cabin reward seats are available due to people avoiding the U.S. due to Trump, the better for the others who would want to go (me included).

Of course, the recent aviation incidents in the U.S. are scary, but that's a risk every flight that you take.

Each to their own I guess.

 

[CaptJCool]

Following

My impression is forward bookings are “soft”
What with the schmozzle unfolding and at 63.8 (long term average ought be around 75) that’s tough for Aussies


I have travelled there when it was 49 c and when it was $1.08!
My favourite story is I dragged 3 weeks of accommodation cash out the ATM in 2008 and the next day it crashed !
Perfectly timed

 

[HS-TQE]

Whilst fares going down might a good thing for a "cheap" USA getaway, the low AUD against the USD may play a role in negating the cheap fares.

Saying that getting redemption seats for cheap and/or selling cheap low yield Y fares where over half the plane is low yielding probably can't be good in the long run for the TransPacific carriers.

Also keeping in mind the seasonal DL flights to MEL and BNE, and the seasonal AA DFW-BNE are partially subsidised by the Victorian and Queensland Governments respectively through their aviation funds.
Edit: Of course the subsidies is in the name of USA "inbound Tourism" that is good for their states.

 

[SYD]

A low AUD tips the inbound flows into overdrive.

 

[Quickstatus]

Not directly related to USA but I was looking at SCL flights over Christmas new year :



In comparison for this thread:

 

[jrfsp]

A low AUD tips the inbound flows into overdrive.

This is true, but US tourists don’t travel to Australia in huge numbers compared to Europe or even Asia, also with talk of recession about to hit the US, outbound traffic will take a hit, how big remains to be seen…..

 

[SYD]

This is true, but US tourists don’t travel to Australia in huge numbers compared to Europe or even Asia, also with talk of recession about to hit the US, outbound traffic will take a hit, how big remains to be seen…..

Yeah, they do. During the heady “Banana Republic” days (aka ~2000-2002 and thereabouts), we were tripping over them left right and center (sic).

Not directly related to USA but I was looking at SCL flights over Christmas new year :

View attachment 436412

In comparison for this thread:

View attachment 436413

Yep. Ridiculous. There’ll be a Sale between now and then for a fraction.

Precovid, I scored SYD-AKL-SCL-EZE/MDZ-SCL/SCL-SYD J for $4.4K over Christmas/New Year.

SYD-YVR in J for $5,999 in recent years has been common. Scored one of those also.