Any tips for picking lowest prices on online bookings?

[Jleno]

Try as hard as I might, the system always beats me.

I've been watching an EK flight BNE-SIN for ages. Return AUD 770. On flexible dates, the cheapest surrounding flights are AUD 723, on less popular travel dates (ie weekdays).

I go to KAYAK - Cheap Flights, Hotels, Airline Tickets, Cheap Tickets, Cheap Travel Deals - Compare Hundreds of Travel Sites At Once, do the same search and it showed that there was only one seat left at the price of AUD 770, thinking that given it's the easter period, if I don't lock it in, prices will go up. I called EK and found out that it is the last seat left (but didn't book over the phone because the phone price was way more expensive). So, comfortable that I was indeed taking the last seat, I booked the flight online.

Next day, the price is AUD 723, and kayak shows >9 seats available. Same class and booking code.

What can you do.

Would love to hear if anyone has any first hand knowledge on how these booking systems work so we can all learn what their tricks are. I'm not a gambler, but it sure does feel like everytime I need to book a flight and I get online it's no different from sitting in front of a roulette table.

 

[Moopere]

I use Matrix - ITA Software myself, to gain an idea of different airlines doing the route I'm after and indicative pricing. Then track on the airlines own sites. So, not dissimilar to what you are doing. I also have Expertflyer and KVS tool access, got these mainly to try and learn how to 'crack' the system that I believed was there but didn't understand.

However, I think my mistake was to assume that airline stock (their seats) and the pricing of this product is static. I now no longer believe this to be true. It may well be that when you rang there was only one fare bucket left of the price/type you were after, but the stock levels are tracked and pricing and bucket availability can be dynamically adjusted in order for the airline to reap the highest possible return from the flight.

Assuming you were told the truth, 1 bucket of interest to you was left on the day you booked, and you got it. Then, the next day the airlines systems, for whatever magical mystical reason, opened up more buckets, perhaps these were the same class as you booked but cheaper, or, more likely, different fares at a different rate. Previously sold out (or otherwise unavailable) they suddenly appear when the airlines systems decide that a full plane is better than a less than full one and discounts the remaining seats, or any one of a number of different reasons.

One will often see essentially the same algorithms at work when booking hotels. Computer systems running statistical numbers to try and extract maximum value based upon the perception of demand and the want to keep the hotel as full as possible for as long as possible at the highest per night per room rate that the market will accept on any given day.

Depending on what you are doing, booking refundable class fares may help alleviate the stress as you could, conceivably (with the right fare rules), book a ticket to reserve your place on the plane and cancel later to rebook if a cheaper bucket appears. Hotel bookings can be made in a similar way. However, if one needs to be buying non-changeable or non-refundable bookings then I've resigned myself to doing research and getting a 'good' deal even if its not the theoretical 'best' deal thats possible.