Bali Flights Cancelled due to Lewotobi Volcano Nov. 2024

Joined
Mar 15, 2009
Posts
9
Hi All,

Just departing from Bali tonight and noted that the board states all virgin flights cancelled due to volcano. Does anyone have any insight into this?

Noting all other flights to Melbourne still operating so assuming it’s effecting one of Virgins diversion airports rather than Bali itself
 
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I don't know anything specific but the Volcano in question is Lewotobi:

Looking at the latest BOM forecasts it appears the forecasted ash cloud are moving south west which is within the regular flight path between the Australia east coast and Bali.
Screenshot 2024-11-10 at 10.47.51 pm.png

Other carriers are still operating by diverting around this airspace for example JQ90 tonight:
Screenshot 2024-11-10 at 10.54.20 pm.png
Or JQ 90 last week:
Screenshot 2024-11-10 at 10.54.34 pm.png
 
As a side point that BOM aviation forecast mentioned the Himawari satellite image and you can clearly see the ash in it. I've marked it up with a red X about where the volcano is and within the red circle the ash.
Screenshot 2024-11-10 at 11.03.04 pm.png
 
Looks like they are not MAX flights so probably explains it, I recall Virgin had diversion challenges when operated with the -800s. Today appears mostly operated by the MAX
 
Both VA65/66 and VA95/94 rotations have cancelled tonight citing 'adverse weather conditions.'

VA95 pushed back from the gate in MEL before returning.

Edit: Jetstar's DPS departures from ADL, MEL and SYD this evening have also been cancelled.
 
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Looks like creeping a bit too close to DPS. Extends nearly into lunchtime tomorrow.

IMG_5685.png
 
The departure times of VA92 to MEL and VA48 to BNE, both currently on the ground in DPS, keep getting pushed back too.
 
The area is expanding, the 18hr forecast could require an extra ~1000km to be tracked on a flight from Melbourne to avoid it. Red is current, orange 6hrs, yellow 12hrs and green 18 hours forecast.
Screenshot 2024-11-12 at 6.52.25 pm.png
 
Any updates about flights from Perth
Virgin doesn't fly between Perth and Denpasar. Other operators on the route seem un impacted and I guess they can divert around thanks to a shorter distance (the narrow bodies still have the range).

On a different note, welcome to AFF.
 
VA48 to BNE departed DPS around 2 hours late and appears to be taking a circuitous route around the ash cloud.

VA92 to MEL has been cancelled after a 3 hour delay.
Any updates about flights from Perth
Jetstar from Perth was cancelled tonight. The Indonesian carriers seem to still be operating.
 
Interesting to see the Indonesian carriers blasting right through the volcanic ash area.

Flights from Perth look to be less impacted but I can’t see any flights from the east coast departing tomorrow (and I’m meant to be on one of them!).
 
Interesting to see the Indonesian carriers blasting right through the volcanic ash area.

Flights from Perth look to be less impacted but I can’t see any flights from the east coast departing tomorrow (and I’m meant to be on one of them!).
Jetstar have cancelled their flight from Perth tonight
Were meant to be on a flight tomorrow 🤞
 
Do you think it will

Do you think it will be cleared by Friday?
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Do you think flights will be cancelled on Friday?
I don’t think these things are predictable. If you can find an english version of a local Denpasar newspaper they might have some insights.

The ash cloud looks like it’s going to get bigger per the posts above.

The airlines will hopefully advise pax with plenty of time if the flight is going to be cancelled.
 
The latest forecast (updated from 2 hours ago) now has the 12 and 18 hour forecasts covering DPS airport. Given that the more recent BOM forecasts show it getting worse it looks like we could see a lot more cancelled tomorrow.

Screenshot 2024-11-12 at 8.36.27 pm.png
 

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