Busy or Empty flight most likely for upgrade?

[orangehenry]

Hi,

Looking for a bit of advice about upgrades here. I'm WP and trying to secure an upgrade (with points) on QF11/12 (SYD-LAX) for an immediate family member (Bronze). I'm wondering am I better of booking a flight that is busy or one that is slightly emptier (i.e. no "Hurry! 5 seats remaining" in Y/J)??

What's my best strategy here?

Thanks.

 

[serfty]

Start by reading the first post in this thread: http://www.australianfrequentflyer....ility-loadings-upgrade-probability-25311.html

 

[TheInsider]

Generally you would look for Economy to be very full and even oversold, with plenty of seats remaining in J/W etc.

 

[simongr]

Generally you would look for Economy to be very full and even oversold, with plenty of seats remaining in J/W etc.

Is that for points or free upgrades or both?

 

[TheInsider]

Is that for points or free upgrades or both?

For both.. They will first do the points upgrades, and if there arn't any people left with those requests then the free upgrades. (-48hrs to -24hrs).
Generally if a flight gets oversold inside -24hrs then all the upgrades will be free (from experience, although other things could happen that i'm not aware of).

 

[orangehenry]

So, I'm better off booking SYD-LAX which flightstats show as 4/9/4 instead of MEL-LAX which is 9/9/9? I'm on the MEL-LAX flight atm with upgrade requests in (early jan flight). Am I better off sticking with this or changing my flight and having to resubmit upgrade requests?

 

[Alanslegal]

Alot of things could still happen between now and early Jan.

However, if looking for a points upgrade I would look for high numbers A/F and J/D/I buckets .... irrespective of Y et al fare buckets.

If hoping for a rare op-up, then I would look for high A/F and J/D/I buckets ... and very low Y et al fare buckets.

 

[orangehenry]

Alot of things could still happen between now and early Jan.

However, if looking for a points upgrade I would look for high numbers A/F and J/D/I buckets .... irrespective of Y et al fare buckets.

If hoping for a rare op-up, then I would look for high A/F and J/D/I buckets ... and very low Y et al fare buckets.

Thanks mate - a great help!