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When I was *Platinum* I'd estimate my upgrade success rate was about 20-30%, and that's including routes that aren't as premium-heavy, such as PVG-SYD or BNE-NRT  (pre-Covid).   And I only was on upgradeable fares because that's what was available through the work travel portal.    I would never buy a more expensive fare simply because there was a chance of upgrade - that's a fool's errand.    Save the points for Classic Rewards.