Domestic airline punctuality 2015

[Melburnian1]

The official results are out showing that overall, VA was more punctual than QF in calendar 2015 although the results vary markedly by route:

http://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/BITRE_OTP_Report_2015.pdf

On what is by far the most well patronised route, MEL - SYD - MEL, VA was ahead of QF in punctuality although QF led with a lower percentage of cancellations. What matters is punctuality upon arrival, not so much punctual departures. There is a quite generous for shorter routes 15 minute allowance before a flight is regarded as 'late' and there can also be padding in the airlines' schedules.

JQ was at the bottom of the four major airlines for punctuality. This may come as little surprise to those of us who have observed its at times shambolic operations at the former and now the 'new' T4 in Melbourne.

JQ's cancellation rate of 12.2 per cent from PER to MEL (eastbound) and 11.7 per cent in the opposite direction is a disgrace and reflects the two return daily 'ghost' flights that strangely now sometimes are again operating despite February 2016 being one of the quieter months for leisure passenger carriage on the airlines. Why take bookings for flights if an airline knows that it lacks sufficient crew to operate the flights as some AFFers have asserted?

TT has a far smaller fleet but it is not so many years ago that it was at the bottom of the punctuality pile and by a large (adverse) margin so hats off to its management team that has obviously improved timekeeping dramatically.

Qantaslink's extremely poor performance on the MEL - HBA route with fewer than 72 per cent of flights arriving within 15 minutes of the schedule shows just how much it has experienced problems with its B717s, as highlighted in numerous prior pages on the QF delays/ cancellations thread.

 

[Melburnian1]

It can't be long before the VA advertising agency is 'tasked' with creating billboards or Internet advertising highlighting VA's superior punctuality compared with 'the competitor.'

 

[chickentalon]

Qantaslink's extremely poor performance on the MEL - HBA route with fewer than 72 per cent of flights arriving within 15 minutes of the schedule shows just how much it has experienced problems with its B717s, as highlighted in numerous prior pages on the QF delays/ cancellations thread.

thanks for that. interesting read. (before the smh repackages that report and posts it every day for the next week under a series of random headings. Typically using the words "shocking", "stunning", "appaling" or "unexpected")

My most common route is SYD<->CBR and I've regularly had flights cancelled or delayed on that. QF seems to schedule them and just cancel them if they aren't full enough, where as Virgin doesn't seem to do it as much. This proves my estimation of the situation. You can't tell me over 6% cancellation rate is related to weather. Drives me crazy but I'm stuck with Qantas as they have the best connecting flight schedules to most places and I've already got status with them.

Otherwise the route that stands out is Jetstar on the PER<->MEL route. over 11% cancelled!! That's terrible. You'd have limited options available to you for alternatives too.

 

[Melburnian1]

For whatever mode of public transport, a six per cent cancellation rate is extremely high.

The just released January 2016 www.bitre.gov.au punctuality figures - not a major month for business travel domestically - have QF a little ahead of VA in on time arrivals but the concerning fact for travellers is that across Australia in total, cancellations of flights at 2.1 per cent are 50 per cent above the long term average of 1.4 per cent for all airlines on a combined basis.

One other AFF member, chickenalon, some months ago asserted that on the MOV - BNE route (a mining route) it looked like QF were cancelling flights at the last minute. The contributor's assertion was that QF did not ever intend to operate these flights but put them in the timetable to entice passengers to book with QF and therefore to avoid booking with the VA 'regional' division, which while our man did not state this would adversely affect the latter's cashflow.

Conspiracy theory? Perhaps, but at times businesses can be far from 'friends' to each other, not of course that they are altruists.

The SYD - CBR route must be mainly used by government employees, politicians, lobbyists and those connecting to and from international flights or much further afield in Oz as it is hard to imagine that many local residents at either end could justify shelling out from their own pockets a substantial fare for a local trip when the alternative of driving or even using the NSWTrainLink train, Murrays or Greyhound coaches is generally so much cheaper and at times just as fast (or faster) depending on one's suburban or CBD origin and destination at either end.

The high frequency advertised by QF on CBR - SYD - CBR may make it 'easy' to cancel a return flight that has low bookings as the rationale from the airline might be that 'oh, 15 passengers will only have to wait another half an hour at each end yet we can save a few thousand dollars by combining the flight with another.' This relies on bookings both ways being low which may not always be the case.

 

[chickentalon]

One other AFF member, chickenalon, some months ago asserted that on the MOV - BNE route (a mining route) it looked like QF were cancelling flights at the last minute. The contributor's assertion was that QF did not ever intend to operate these flights but put them in the timetable to entice passengers to book with QF and therefore to avoid booking with the VA 'regional' division, thus affecting the latter's cashflow.

This is precisely what I was thinking. Cancellation and delays... A few times: flight was always leaving in 30min, then ops please wait another 30min, then same please wait 30min. Missed my meeting. Or cancelled first thing in the morning (no doubt once they've worked out they don't have enough passengers for their profit margins), easier to change a booking, than cancel and re-book with VA....

If I'd known that I wouldn't be flying for 2 hours after schedule or the flight was going to be cancelled. Then I could have sorted something with VA or indeed made the original booking with them.

 

[chickentalon]

The SYD - CBR route must be mainly used by government employees, politicians, lobbyists and those connecting to and from international flights or much further afield in Oz as it is hard to imagine that many local residents at either end could justify shelling out from their own pockets a substantial fare for a local trip when the alternative of driving or even using the NSWTrainLink train, Murrays or Greyhound coaches is generally so much cheaper and at times just as fast (or faster) depending on one's suburban or CBD origin and destination at either end.

The high frequency advertised by QF on CBR - SYD - CBR may make it 'easy' to cancel a return flight that has low bookings as the rationale from the airline might be that 'oh, 15 passengers will only have to wait another half an hour at each end yet we can save a few thousand dollars by combining the flight with another.' This relies on bookings both ways being low which may not always be the case.

Yes, I'm often surrounded by various APS members, often discussing their pensions (no joke! and with completely straight faces). You're right about the impact of these cancellations, invariably results in reshuffle, impact to me is a missed meeting on occasion, never a missed int connection so far. It's not nearly so bad as cancelling the last flight of the day or when they cancel international. I've also always found that the last flight of the day either CBR<->SYD always leaves, so I've never been stuck overnight. If I was, I'd grab a 1-way rental and be presenting QF with the bill (+ coffee expenses).

Cost: I've worked out that I can fly using points quite cost effectively on this route. Often the red-e deal is expensive or sold out, with fares $300+. Yet I can still book for 8,000pts+$50. I've also had great experience with these reward bookings being pretty much fully flexible, there have never been issues or charges to change them (time or date) even 2 hours before scheduled departure. Not sure if this is a WP thing though, i suspect that it is.

 

[TiredOldFlyer]

	Sectors	Arrivals On Time	Departures On Time	Cancellations
Scheduled	Flown	No.	%	No.	%	No.	%
Jetstar	86730	84863	66374	78.2	63693	75.1	1867	2.2
Qantas	112797	111544	99065	88.8	100021	89.7	1253	1.1
QantasLink	123070	119827	103474	86.4	104382	87.1	3243	2.6
Regional Express	71517	71156	60866	85.5	62986	88.5	361	0.5
Tigerair	25751	25505	21530	84.4	21811	85.5	246	1.0
Virgin Australia	140999	138925	124306	89.5	125930	90.6	2074	1.5
Virgin Australia Regional Airlines	19020	18629	15607	83.8	15881	85.2	391	2.1
All Airlines	579884	570449	491222	86.1	494704	86.7	9435	1.6
Qantas - all QF designated services	235867	231371	202539	87.5	204403	88.3	4496	1.9
Virgin Australia - all VA designated services	160019	157554	139913	88.8	141811	90.0	2465	1.5

Not bad in my opinion - a 90% chance of arrival on time.
I would like to have the same chance of winning lotto !

Stats from Australian Govt Dept of Infrastructure.

 

[Melburnian1]

Not bad in my opinion - a 90% chance of arrival on time.
I would like to have the same chance of winning lotto!

Many schedules have padding built into them, and 'on time' means 'within 15 minutes of scheduled arrival.'

So it's not nearly as impressive as it appears at first glance; on top of that, some routes (MEL - HBA is one) at times (depending on the airline) are diabolical.

 

[TiredOldFlyer]

I understand the -15 mins.
I was just trying to promote a more positive "spin" after
looking at the threads about late/cacelled flights.
When you think about the variables and the logistics I still think most of the airlines are doing a good job.
They have to contend with weather, passengers who turn up to the gate when it suits them, late delivery of food, fuel,
etc and many other variables outside of their control.

 

[Melburnian1]

TiredOldFlyer, the statistics also do not reveal the appalling cancellation percentages on routes such as SYD - MEL that sometimes for individual airlines can be as high as six per cent.

If we had a well run, reliable high speed train between MEL, CBR, SYD and then SYD, CFS, OOL and BNE both the punctuality and reliability - in accordance with what's occurred overseas - would be way higher than our domestic airlines can manage.