Yes, even as a WP I have this happen occasionally - classic upgrade request doesn't come through, but the kiosk at the airport then says yes. The points cost is the same but ODUs do not have catering assured.
I had wandered about the points cost so presumably
means Syd - Melb or Adl - Melb is in 0-600 miles
while Adl - Perth or CBR - Perth is in 1,201 - 2,400 miles
I would note during the AFL finals & school holiday period some Red-E deals are either More expensive or within a couple of hundred dollars of the Flexi Fare, and of course ZERO CLASSIC REWARDS ON OFFER....
so there are times where the cash just has to be stumped up.....
so as example in the coming week
if I got it correct
Qantas & Velocity Points Are Worth Less Now Than 4 Years Ago
the ordinary redemption value is 5 cents per point
however, in these specific circumstances
6th October
spend $946 & 10,900 points plus 2x status credits
v Red-E deal
spend $758 (with non-refundable tic) & 27,200 points & 1/2 the status credits of the Flexi fare
overall Cost
Flexi fare $946
10,900 points buys $2,163 - each point saves 19.8 cents
J class fare $3,109 less actual fare paid less points used = savings
Red-E fare $758
27,200 points buys $2,351 - each point saves 11.56 cents
by spending under $200 extra $ up-front, you save 60% on points and you score 2x status credits.....
im sure something in the logic is awry but I can’t put my finger on it at 11.56pm....
so the part I’m likely missing is the value of the points. Which I vaguely recall is rather less than the redemption value. I had used 5 cents a point and got a significant savings on that calculation for the $3,109 fare - of course potentially the lower J fare on 7th October wipes out the most part of it...
it seems a mathematical formula challenge which I can’t quite nut out right now.... but some Prediction Model where you could plug variables to provide a yes/no upgrade purchase ahead of time but especially ODU
VARIABLES
J class fare price
Flexi Y & Red-E class fare prices (OR what price was actually paid for the fare)
required upgrade points spend & (cash equivalent costing)
expected Savings on the J class fare
what you paid via tic cost & points as % of The cash J fare
If anyone can suggest a per points costing that would be awesome (2 cents, 5 cents etc)
PS counter-intuitively I would put the hypothesis that the higher the J class cash fare rises, the more likely an upgrade - some of the cross country domestic J fares could get you to Europe & back!
PPS Didn‘t consider Bid Now upgrades as they are by invitation only whereas ODU is available to a fair range of members while Classic Upgrades open to all FFers -
However, Any Prediction model could be utilised to recommend optimal Bid Now upgrade (cash & points combination bidding) because there must be a point where the total tic spend (original price plus cash & points bid) as a % of just buying the actual tic becomes not worthwhile. Whether that’s 40, 50, 60 or 70% of published fare (yeah yeah small J fares might give a 50% savings but be a relative small $ save), it ought be feasible to ‘work out a system and formula’ to play them at their own game.
PPS Loopholes with inspiration from this page
Qantas Award Flights Were Incredible Value in the 1990s
