Qantas billion dollar loss

[HappyFlyerFamily]

In what has been a horror year for the global aviation industry, Qantas has revealed a staggering $1 billion loss amid the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic which has decimated the global aviation industry.

In a half-yearly trading update posted on Thursday, the nation’s largest airline revealed a $1.08 billion six-month loss.
The airline said the results were a result of ongoing international border closures, as well as strict domestic travel restrictions and state lockdowns.

‘Worse than expected’: Qantas’ huge loss

In what has been a horror year for the global aviation industry, Qantas has revealed a staggering $1 billion loss amid the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic which has decimated the global aviation industry.

www.news.com.au

 

[kpc]

Surprised it is not even more tbh! Expecting international travel to restart in October 2021 is very optimistic and perhaps the statement is to calm shareholders' nerves!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Haven’t seen the detail, but if it was going to be 1 billion they should have revalued their fleet as well but I guess that might have posed problems in terms of their loan collateral

 

[oz_mark]

Surprised it is not even more tbh! Expecting international travel to restart in October 2021 is very optimistic and perhaps the statement is to calm shareholders' nerves!

Their working assumption had been July, which wasn't even realistic when they announced that. October is probably a better bet, even if optimistic.

 

[Melburnian1]

Their working assumption had been July, which wasn't even realistic when they announced that. October is probably a better bet, even if optimistic.

For us to travel overseas may require the OK from multiple governments.

I share your view October is optimistic, but I doubt anyone knows "when". I certainly do not, and Mr Joyce's crystal ball probably won't tell him either.

Wonder how many bookings were made for dates up to 31 October 2021 on QFi flights when it 'opened up' overseas flights from 1 July? Some will have to be refunded.

I've never seen anything public: in such circumstances, what percentage of travellers go for a refund, and what percentage merely ask for a travel credit?

 

[mviy]

I wonder how long it will be till QF does another capital raise?

 

[Seat0B]

I heard ABC News interview with the president of the Australian International Pilots Association (or similar name) talking about how long it will take to return the aircraft from storage and the pilots from layoff to enable flights to start again. He said 6-9 months would be needed, given the need for extensive skills refresher in simulators for pilots. Which means for an October start date, they should be starting the maintenance and training very soon - and he also said that that was not happening as yet. So, as others have suggested, maybe 31 October is just another marker date. I do feel very sad for all involved. The effects will be very long lasting, I'm sure.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qantas ‘will survive’ amid forecasts 40 per cent of airlines will go bankrupt

Qantas boss Alan Joyce insists the national carrier will survive while other airlines are driven bankrupt by the COVID-19 pandemic despite the company booking an eye-watering net loss.

www.news.com.au

 

[Mattg]

I heard ABC News interview with the president of the Australian International Pilots Association (or similar name) talking about how long it will take to return the aircraft from storage and the pilots from layoff to enable flights to start again. He said 6-9 months would be needed, given the need for extensive skills refresher in simulators for pilots. Which means for an October start date, they should be starting the maintenance and training very soon - and he also said that that was not happening as yet. So, as others have suggested, maybe 31 October is just another marker date. I do feel very sad for all involved. The effects will be very long lasting, I'm sure.

31 October 2021 is the beginning of the IATA northern winter scheduling period. Which is just as arbitrary a date as any other.

 

[jb747]

I don’t know how many sims are being discussed as being necessary, but lets assume 5 training, plus a check, so 6 per pilot. I would be surprised if it’s less, but it wouldn’t expect it to be much more. Assuming 100% utilisation of the sim, then you’d basically be able to produce 1 two man crew per day. Of course the sims are never up 100%, they aren’t themselves manned that way (i.e. sim instructors and senior checks), and I’m not accounting for SOs. I expect the real rate would be more like one crew every two days. With 10 aircraft, you’d have about 70 crews. So, 140 days just to cover the sim work.

But, once you start churning crews out, they’ll need recurrent sims, so, that will start to eat into the available sim time.

Restarting will be difficult, in so many ways.

 

[Seat0B]

I don’t know how many sims are being discussed as being necessary, but lets assume 5 training, plus a check, so 6 per pilot. I would be surprised if it’s less, but it wouldn’t expect it to be much more. Assuming 100% utilisation of the sim, then you’d basically be able to produce 1 two man crew per day. Of course the sims are never up 100%, they aren’t themselves manned that way (i.e. sim instructors and senior checks), and I’m not accounting for SOs. I expect the real rate would be more like one crew every two days. With 10 aircraft, you’d have about 70 crews. So, 140 days just to cover the sim work.

But, once you start churning crews out, they’ll need recurrent sims, so, that will start to eat into the available sim time.

Restarting will be difficult, in so many ways.

And with each month containing about 20 working days, sounds like the estimate of 6-9 months to get pilots up to speed again was reasonably consistent with your estimate of 140 days. Even if they work every day of the month, it would still be around the minimum of 6 months. So yes it will be difficult for sure. Also, there has been a big experience drain for airlines, with many of my former RAAF buddies now in the age group of 55-60ish), who have a lot of flying hours, "deciding" to just retire. Sighs and looks downcast.

 

[Danger]

I don’t know how many sims are being discussed as being necessary, but lets assume 5 training, plus a check, so 6 per pilot. I would be surprised if it’s less, but it wouldn’t expect it to be much more. Assuming 100% utilisation of the sim, then you’d basically be able to produce 1 two man crew per day. Of course the sims are never up 100%, they aren’t themselves manned that way (i.e. sim instructors and senior checks), and I’m not accounting for SOs. I expect the real rate would be more like one crew every two days. With 10 aircraft, you’d have about 70 crews. So, 140 days just to cover the sim work.

But, once you start churning crews out, they’ll need recurrent sims, so, that will start to eat into the available sim time.

Restarting will be difficult, in so many ways.

Does that mean you've changed your view that Qantas is destined for bankruptcy?

 

[jb747]

Those numbers apply to any airline.

And no.

 

[mviy]

I think it's clear that QF will need to stick it's hand out for another capital raise or go through a VA, selling the company and wiping out shareholder equity like Virgin did. It's only a matter of time.

 

[nancypants]

Was told a while back that for the a380 to come back, it’ll take 3 years with every sector a training flight to get everyone back up to speed and rechecked

 

[Melburnian1]

Was told a while back that for the a380 to come back, it’ll take 3 years with every sector a training flight to get everyone back up to speed and rechecked

I'm wary of going OT but it's hard to envisage that the A388s will ever return.

 

[jb747]

Was told a while back that for the a380 to come back, it’ll take 3 years with every sector a training flight to get everyone back up to speed and rechecked

Not that long, but it certainly would not be quick. As a start, they’ve lost about 65% of the Captains. So, if you called it three months to get crews up for which you have Captains, you now have to train up around another 60 or so. That would take about 4 months per person, but the pipeline could only hold about 20 at a time. So perhaps somewhere between 8 months and a year to get them out. But, you probably also don’t have enough Senior Check/Training Captains either, so you’ll need to generate them from somewhere. My guess would be that you could get the entire 380 operation back in around 18 months, starting with about 4 aircraft, and building up to the full 12.

But, compounding this is the fact that all of these people have to come from somewhere. Most of the 747 people are gone, so you can‘t train them as your replacements. You’ll have to get your Captains from the other fleets. And in turn they’ll have to be replaced. For normality to return, across all of the fleets, your 3 year number may not be far out. If the plan is to end up with a much smaller airline, without the 380s at all, then it’s much easier.

 

[mviy]

Glad I flew on the QF A380 when I did and experienced the F cabin on my most recent international trip.

4 planes wouldn't be enough to do both LHR and LAX. SYD-LHR alone needs 3 planes due to the curfews. I hope they bring at least 6 of the A380 back, but it all depends on demand.

 

[dajop]

But, compounding this is the fact that all of these people have to come from somewhere.

How difficult would it be to bring people in from outside vs training up crew from the existing pool of employees ? (Would the fact that lots of carriers are eliminating the A380 make a difference to as to sources of potential crew or now that most A380 crew globally have been furloughed for 12 months now, it wouldn’t make much difference?).

 

[mviy]

You'd need people to have the required training to get back up to speed or trained on the aircraft for the first time. Whether that's done in Australia or offshore it would still have to be up to the standard that QANTAS sets. If done offshore QF could be competing for use of training facilities with other airlines.

The flight simulators wouldn't be cheap to setup and maintain, I suspect. They're not going to let someone get back at the controls in the coughpit of a real plane worth millions before getting required training on a simulator.

It would be easier for QANTAS to control the training when they are supervising the process. With existing employees they're going to have a better idea of the quality of the worker than with outside workers too.

If the airline will be a lot smaller than pre-pandemic that gives the airline the opportunity to choose to keep the workers they consider the best, potentially increasing the quality compared to pre-pandemic.

There's also the matter of the airline's public image. With so many Australian workers laid off and so many local pilots available it wouldn't be a great look to bring in overseas pilots. If QF wants to revise what they offer to employees they should be able to find plenty willing to accept some changes to conditions in order to keep a job.

As a passenger it's nice and reassuring to hear an Australian accent when the captain speaks.

For some of the cabin crew skills at speaking e.g. European languages for some of the crew flying between London and Singapore may be beneficial, but then QF probably still has employees from pre-pandemic with those skills.