Resorces to help judge whether an airline is safe to fly

[RooFlyer]

There have been a few threads on 'worlds safest' airlines and ones with a poor safety records; there have been a couple of questions to the Pilots recently on how they might judge whether to fly a particular airline. I thought a thread might be useful on resources to help one can satisfy themselves whether a particular airline was safe enough for them - as opposed to being about individual airline's record.

Personally I don't think fatality or crash statistics are a great guide (but is informative) - I worry more about how strict an airline's maintenance and training regime is; how tight is the country's oversight of its airline industry; the age of an airline's fleet and the likelihood of corruption in the airline / the regulators. Now these are impossible for ordinary punters to assess, so other than just crossing fingers (and as JB747 says, the odds are in our favour), I look to organisations who do this professionally.

This is what I have and I hope others might add to this list (but hopefully not with "10 most" or "20 worst" type lists). I don't regard any of the below as 'the answer' but can help inform a decision on whether to fly on a particular airline or not.

EU SAFETY LIST (Airlines banned from operating in EU airspace) List of airlines banned within the EU - Transport

The EU Safety List (i.e. "Community list of air carriers which are subject to an operating ban within the Community") is a list of airlines which the European Commission, pursuant to Regulation (EC) No 2111/2005 of the European Parliament and the Council of 14 December 2005 on the establishment of a Community list of air carriers subject to an operating ban within the Community and on informing air transport passengers of the identity of the operating air carrier and on the basis of the advice of the EU Air Safety Committee, decided to subject to either a complete or a partial operating ban within the European Union, for failure to adhere to the applicable international safety standards.

List of carriers banned and allowed, with restrictions, here (422kb PDF).


IATA OPERATIONAL SAFETY AUDIT REGISTERED IATA - IOSA Registry

The IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) is the benchmark for global safety management in airlines. All IATA members are registered and must remain registered in order to maintain IATA membership. See the applicability of IOSA standards and recommended practices (ISARPs).

AVIATION SAFETY NETWORK Aviation Safety Network >

Mission statement
"Providing everyone with a (professional) interest in aviation with up-to-date, complete and reliable authoritative information on airliner accidents and safety issues".
Content / scope
The Aviation Safety Network is a private, independent initiative founded in 1996. On line since January 1996, the Aviation Safety Network covers accidents and safety issues with regards to airliners, military transport planes and corporate jets.
The ASN Safety Database contains detailed descriptions of over 10,700 incidents, hijackings and accidents.

AVIATION HERALD The Aviation Herald
Search function is an indicator of an airlines propensity to have 'incidents'.


JADEC VETTING JACDEC
A pay-per-query-period service. Never used it, their methodology is a bit opaque, but that could be said for the EU list as well.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Airline Ratings is also probably worth a read - I think they claim to take a holistic approach to safety rankings - including regulation and oversight issues: Airline Ratings

What I don't think anyone does... and I don't really know how you capture it... is the management and operation side:

• does the airline you are about to fly carry bulk shipments of lithium-ion batteries? (or other dangerous cargo)
• do they fly over war zones or avoid them?
• do they have annual psychological tests for pilots, or rely on self reporting?
• what procedures do they have in place to make sure both pilots aren't asleep on the flight deck during ultra long-hauls?
• etc

 

[juddles]

I just think that most major airlines are so bloody safe that it is splitting hairs to distinguish between them. It seems of late that the more notorious incidents are driven by things such as suicidal pilots and surface-to-air missiles - I think this is a telling sign of just how safe the airlines are, despite rumours of poor maintenance, etc.

P.S. An extra comment, Rooflyer, you mentioned age of fleets - IMHO a low fleet average age can be due to brand-new aircraft entering service - and I for one don't like brand new aircraft

P.P.S. Anyone notice a spelling error somewhere?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I just think that most major airlines are so bloody safe that it is splitting hairs to distinguish between them. It seems of late that the more notorious incidents are driven by things such as suicidal pilots and surface-to-air missiles - I think this is a telling sign of just how safe the airlines are, despite rumours of poor maintenance, etc.

I think you exactly sum up the points under the 'other considerations' box of airline operations and procedures. Air France 447, Asiana at SFO, (and possibly - we don't know yet) Air Asia... were pilots suitably experienced to be in those jets? Did they get the right training? Were company and aircraft procedures as comprehensive as they could have been?

I think there are different components to safety... did an airline cause/contribute to an accident, did the manufacturer or the aircraft (or its components), or was it something outside the control of both of those?

 

[RooFlyer]

I just think that most major airlines are so bloody safe that it is splitting hairs to distinguish between them. It seems of late that the more notorious incidents are driven by things such as suicidal pilots and surface-to-air missiles - I think this is a telling sign of just how safe the airlines are, despite rumours of poor maintenance, etc.

P.S. An extra comment, Rooflyer, you mentioned age of fleets - IMHO a low fleet average age can be due to brand-new aircraft entering service - and I for one don't like brand new aircraft

P.P.S. Anyone notice a spelling error somewhere?

Sorry, Juddles, I think you have missed the point. The issue is specifically not about "major airlines" (although JB747 has noted in the 'Ask the Pilot' thread that even some mainstream airlines may be less safe than one might think for reasons other than a poor crash/fatality record). Personally, I care whether the risks of flying Aero Benin, Busy Bee Congo or Air Bishkek are greater than 'average' because they fly in areas I might wish to travel in. As tourism opens up in places like Central Asia (which is where my focus currently is), or places like Myanmar etc there will be more and more airlines opening up in poorly regulated places. Do you put your family on board, or do you look for an alternative? How would you decide?

You express YHO and I have mine, but the issue about looking for serious resources is to find out what those who know what they are talking about say about fleet age and things other than 'rumours of poor maintenance' etc . Why do you think the EU bans some airlines from their airspace ... because they might have suicidal pilots? If you are blasé to those risks, YMMV compared to mine.

 

[juddles]

Not mocking it at all.

My own way to decide these things (and it may be majorly flawed!) is that unless they are in One World or Star Alliance, I wont fly them. Except for necessary little flights in the countryside when one doesn't have options

(Edit: and within those alliances, I also avoid certain carriers due to cultural issues as per Straitman's post in the ask the pilot thread)

 

[Mogul]

When your numbers up its up.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Personally, I care whether the risks of flying Aero Benin, Busy Bee Congo or Air Bishkek are greater than 'average' because they fly in areas I might wish to travel in.

I think you are right to approach the choice of carrier in developing nations with some sense of caution... but it's also going to be relative. While Busy Bee Congo might not look so good on paper compared to a major international airline... what are the alternatives? Obviously if major airlines fly the same route that might be a compelling reason to choose those carriers... in central Africa you might be safer to stick with the likes of South African, Ethiopian, Kenya Airways, Namib Air (etc). But if there are no choices... bus or train could be equally as dangerous. Even driving might have its own hazards.

In Asia... Lion Air might no be my first choice, but I'd probably take Lion Air before an overnight ferry!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

When your numbers up its up.

And that's partly the issue... in most aviation accidents your number shouldn't have been up. It's only 'up' because of a failing - whether the passenger's or the airline's. Proper analysis and knowledge can help reduce that risk.

One passenger pays attention to the safety briefing and survives an accident, but another decides to retrieve their hand luggage and dies.

 

[pauly7]

When your numbers up its up.

Might just be up a little faster with some airlines cough Garuda