Tokyo Haneda slot - 2025

[jrfsp]

As per post 30

ah didnt see that - deleted.

 

[Himeno]

The Qantas submission for this slot is very short. Much shorter then other applications they've made in the past. It's closer to their renewal requests instead of when asking for something new.

When I first saw the timing of the proposed flights, I thought they were going back to keeping the SYD aircraft parked in Tokyo all day, then noticed the link up with the BNE times. QF25 will return as QF62 with either QF61 or QF79 returning as QF26.

Executive Traveller thinks that QF59/60, the current SYD-HND day flights will move to NRT, but Qantas hasn't said anything about it yet. QF currently uses 4 A330s for Tokyo flights. The suggested times for the 3 slots at HND would require 3 aircraft. Which means they either fly the 4th as SYD-NRT or move the aircraft to some other route (maybe SYD-KIX?).

 

[elanshin]

Executive Traveller thinks that QF59/60, the current SYD-HND day flights will move to NRT, but Qantas hasn't said anything about it yet. QF currently uses 4 A330s for Tokyo flights. The suggested times for the 3 slots at HND would require 3 aircraft. Which means they either fly the 4th as SYD-NRT or move the aircraft to some other route (maybe SYD-KIX?).

As I said upthread I don't expect QF to run a lone flight to NRT as it presents challenges operationally as well. They can also funnel people through the other flight connections for those SYD pax.

Given the launch timing leeways I can see QF not changing the schedule until mid April to late April which would coincide with peak season ending.

QF should also be regularly down a 330 in 2025 as some of them are getting refurbished. Perhaps for the 2025/2026 snow sesson we might see SYD - CTS restarted.

 

[encryptededdy]

I think it would make sense for QF to operate SYD-KIX (or CTS seasonal?) and JQ to move to SYD-NRT. I saw someone mention SYD-NRT A380 which seems unlikely (but I would love it - sounds like fun).

 

[henrus]

I really like that the Brisbane flights will be daytime services!

 

[Saab34]

I don’t think Jetstar have the fleet to introduce a SYD-NRT. It’s other NRT flights are tied to deals with certain parties so I can’t see them moving other flights around.

I think pulling that frequency and consolidating at HND will somewhat be more profitable vs the current arrangement. Margins are slipping on the International front and this is certainly a lever they can pull to somewhat slow that down, or reverse it on the Japan market.

 

[Himeno]

5 of the current 6 AU-HND flights are SYD-HND. Aren't loads down across those 5 flights? Maybe there doesn't need to be 5 daily SYD-TYO flights.

If JQ was to pick up SYD-NRT, it would likely be a domestic tag flight to one of their existing AU-NRT flights. SYD-BNE-NRT or SYD-CNS-NRT.

 

[SYD]

I really like that the Brisbane flights will be daytime services!

SYD<->HND back to red eyes each way is a bit of a bummer but I assume those aircraft aren’t “return to sender” ie a/c from SYD does the BNE run? So excellent utilisation and none of that sitting around all day.

 

[jrfsp]

5 of the current 6 AU-HND flights are SYD-HND. Aren't loads down across those 5 flights? Maybe there doesn't need to be 5 daily SYD-TYO flights.

If JQ was to pick up SYD-NRT, it would likely be a domestic tag flight to one of their existing AU-NRT flights. SYD-BNE-NRT or SYD-CNS-NRT.

JQ already sells SYD-NRT, via CNS or BNE, adding a tag just adds extra cost to the operation.

 

[elanshin]

JQ already sells SYD-NRT, via CNS or BNE, adding a tag just adds extra cost to the operation.

I'll take the extra tag though visit to QF F

 

[SomeRando]

5 of the current 6 AU-HND flights are SYD-HND. Aren't loads down across those 5 flights? Maybe there doesn't need to be 5 daily SYD-TYO flights.

Anecdotal I know, but I flew SYD-HND (NH890, 11:50 departure) last Monday and when I checked in they got me to confirm my seat selection as the flight was full. I didn't realise there were so many flights a day.

 

[Himeno]

Anecdotal I know, but I flew SYD-HND (NH890, 11:50 departure) last Monday and when I checked in they got me to confirm my seat selection as the flight was full. I didn't realise there were so many flights a day.

QF and ANA moved their SYD-NRT flights to HND when they got the AU/HND night slots.
ANA quickly started a 2nd HND flight when the day slots became usable (such as it was during covid with closed borders on both ends) and JAL soon followed when they moved their SYD-NRT flight to HND.
QF started the 5th SYD-HND flight around a year ago when they doubled JP flights as the international operation increased following post covid demand and moved the BNE and MEL flights back to daily and back to NRT.

 

[justinbrett]

Maybe QF will go for a second attempt at a JL JV.

This is similar to the QF/AA playbook. Cut back services, wait, then put in a submission arguing how it's in the public's interest.

 

[elanshin]

Maybe QF will go for a second attempt at a JL JV.

This is similar to the QF/AA playbook. Cut back services, wait, then put in a submission arguing how it's in the public's interest.

I just think they're just pruning back JP after the peak April season when their 330s start hitting the shop for refit. They're supposed to start by June 2025.

 

[sevenfourtyseven]

Confirmed - https://www.iasc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2024-iasc-122-qf-japan.pdf

Looking forward to MEL-HND returning.

 

[N860CR]

5 of the current 6 AU-HND flights are SYD-HND. Aren't loads down across those 5 flights? Maybe there doesn't need to be 5 daily SYD-TYO flights.

If JQ was to pick up SYD-NRT, it would likely be a domestic tag flight to one of their existing AU-NRT flights. SYD-BNE-NRT or SYD-CNS-NRT.

Coming through SYD intl a few times I’ve noticed the JAL flight load is listed in the low 100s. This was a 777 as well. I suspect JL has the weakest brand of the operators to/from Australia, but they’re still pretty poor numbers.

 

[Saab34]

JL does much better from MEL don’t they?

I know a few that prefer the earlier departure time JL has from both Mel and Syd.

 

[yachty]

Coming through SYD intl a few times I’ve noticed the JAL flight load is listed in the low 100s. This was a 777 as well. I suspect JL has the weakest brand of the operators to/from Australia, but they’re still pretty poor numbers.

I think the whole market is a bit over capacity... JAL has a better load factor than ANA for example, who are regularly around 50-60% so they are probably more likely to drop or rejig something.

I always thought JAL are playing at a slightly different game since their Y is so low density, so they're probably chasing a higher fare over volume like ANA, QF etc have to... Every time I fly QF in/out of HND it seems like Y is mostly school groups.

 

[Himeno]

Coming through SYD intl a few times I’ve noticed the JAL flight load is listed in the low 100s. This was a 777 as well. I suspect JL has the weakest brand of the operators to/from Australia, but they’re still pretty poor numbers.

JAL has the better brand in Australia. They've been flying to Australia for much longer then ANA has.
ANA pulled out of Australia entirely for years, only returning when they got the HND night slot. JAL kept flying to SYD, even after they cut BNE following their bankruptcy.

ANA got a higher ratio of the international HND slots then JAL because of the government assistance JAL got during the bankruptcy process.

Post automatically merged: Sep 30, 2024

I always thought JAL are playing at a slightly different game since their Y is so low density, so they're probably chasing a higher fare over volume like ANA, QF etc have to... Every time I fly QF in/out of HND it seems like Y is mostly school groups.

Back in the 747 SYD-TYO days, almost every time I flew on QF21/22 (NRT) or QF25/26 and wasn't already in J, I got an opup because Y was oversold with school groups.

 

[pauly7]

Confirmed - https://www.iasc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2024-iasc-122-qf-japan.pdf

Looking forward to MEL-HND returning.

Great news for MEL