Tokyo Haneda slot - How will Virgin Operate it? [CNS-HND flights ceased Feb '25]

Interesting. I would've thought due to the demand from Australia to visit Japan that ANA would at least put on some Melb-Tokyo flights. The last few times I've been to Japan I've had to either fly via Cairns or Singapore as I couldn't find any economy (or business) direct from Melbourne or any other eastern capital. I guess the seats were available if I just paid in cash...
Depending on the time of year, the Tokyo flights out of SYD and MEL often have large blocks of seats booked by Japanese school groups. With 30-40 students per class and a couple of teachers, it can get busy quickly.
When QF had the 747 flights to Tokyo, I almost always got an opup when I wasn't already booked in J.
 
Depending on the time of year, the Tokyo flights out of SYD and MEL often have large blocks of seats booked by Japanese school groups. With 30-40 students per class and a couple of teachers, it can get busy quickly.
When QF had the 747 flights to Tokyo, I almost always got an opup when I wasn't already booked in J.
Changed days eh!😁
 
Depending on the time of year, the Tokyo flights out of SYD and MEL often have large blocks of seats booked by Japanese school groups. With 30-40 students per class and a couple of teachers, it can get busy quickly.
When QF had the 747 flights to Tokyo, I almost always got an opup when I wasn't already booked in J.
I've both been part of the school bus 20 years ago as well as receiving OpUp (first ever non Y) and also being next to the teacher who's minding the school bus kids.
 
and the last flight is a month before the original end date of the slot assignment.
Well after the announcement of ceasing the service they very quickly reduced from daily(I think) to about 3 or 4 a week. Mine was cancelled shortly after the announcement and they popped me on ANA instead out of Sydney.
 
Well after the announcement of ceasing the service they very quickly reduced from daily(I think) to about 3 or 4 a week. Mine was cancelled shortly after the announcement and they popped me on ANA instead out of Sydney.
It operated at a reduced frequency (4 or 5 weekly) at various times throughout 2024 but returned to daily from the beginning of November until the route ended.

I think the frequency is part (of many) problems with the route. They had to utilise the Haneda slot 80% of the time or risk losing it, which made it difficult to match frequency with demand. Looking at the BITRE data, October through to March typically had higher load factors and could justify the daily service. In the middle of the year, the frequency could have been reduced even further – or even be turned into a seasonal service – but that would have been impossible with the Haneda slot rules. Perhaps Narita might have been a different story.
 
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It operated at a reduced frequency (4 or 5 weekly) at various times throughout 2024 but returned to daily from the beginning of November until the route ended.

I think the frequency is part (of many) problems with the route. They had to utilise the Haneda slot 80% of the time or risk losing it, which made it difficult to match frequency with demand. Looking at the BITRE data, October through to March typically had higher load factors and could justify the daily service. In the middle of the year, the frequency could have been reduced even further – or even be turned into a seasonal service – but that would have been impossible with the Haneda slot rules. Perhaps Narita might have been a different story.
You can see this now with readjustments to JL down gauging from the 777 to the 788 (which is smaller than what we had before in the 789). I suspect NH isn't doing it because they don't want to lose any slots to JL and thus run 2 789s regardless of how full.

JL even scaled back MEL - NRT to 3x weekly instead of daily. We're yet to see what happens when QF takes over the HND route but suffice to say, the demand between Apr and Oct is a lot lower than the other half.
 

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