Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[AviatorInsight]

Would the 737-700 have the range?

As mentioned yes they do, but they will come with a weight restriction on them. If the weather is fine then it technically shouldn’t be an issue. However, throw in any kind of additional holding and a tech stop will be required. Both north and southbound.

The legacy -700s (VBY/VBZ) will be the only ones able to be put on the route, as the ex-KLM aircraft aren’t EDTO (extended ops) approved as they only have one cargo fire suppression system.

I would have thought an -800 with a fuel stop in Guam would be better.

I believe the Americans are having an issue with this. Sure, Guam may be available for fuel, but if the aircraft then goes tech on the ground it becomes a big pain for passengers and crew as no one will have an ESTA unless they have previously gotten one in the last 2 years.

Rumous going around that it could be southern Japan for a quick splash northbound, and Port Moresby for a top up southbound.

 

[Quickstatus]

I recall the PM flew in his -700 from Canberra direct to Toyko.

Carrying only 30 pax

it could be southern Japan for a quick splash northbound, and Port Moresby for a top up southbound.

What about MNL?

 

[Quickstatus]

it could be southern Japan for a quick splash northbound, and Port Moresby for a top up southbound.

What about MNL?

 

[AviatorInsight]

What about MNL?

An option yes, but if you look at the great circle track it is a lengthy divert.

 

[Quickstatus]

lengthy divert.

Yes 400nm more going via MNL but it allows more payload than an intermediate stop near the destination?

Is an international airport necessary for a splash and dash? - I dont believe there are international airports in the Okinawa islands.

 

[justinbrett]

The main question is why would someone travelling from somewhere other than CNS want to make two stops to get to HND when you can get direct flights from SYD/BNE/MEL on superior aircraft?

They are going to have to cut fares significantly and I feel like this will lose a lot of money for them if they don't get it right.

I believe the Americans are having an issue with this. Sure, Guam may be available for fuel, but if the aircraft then goes tech on the ground it becomes a big pain for passengers and crew as no one will have an ESTA unless they have previously gotten one in the last 2 years.

That may be the case but it's a right specifically granted in the AU/US treaty.

2. the right to make stops in its territory for non-traffic purposes; and

http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/ATS/2013/23.html

 

[HS-TQE]

The main question is why would someone travelling from somewhere other than CNS want to make two stops to get to HND when you can get direct flights from SYD/BNE/MEL on superior aircraft?

They are going to have to cut fares significantly and I feel like this will lose a lot of money for them if they don't get it right.

The AAIF funding from the Queensland Government might cover some of the operating expenses, but at the same time the route suggests it's also aimed at the inbound market (Japanese visiting North Queensland) with the said Qld Government funding.

On a related note, it seems VA is still yet to properly release fares for those originating from Japan/HND (or anyone connecting from any of the other Japan cities via NH) as it seems they're being 'drip-feed' rather than released en-masse.

 

[Quickstatus]

superior aircraft

I suspect this will be a predominant leisure route. Would leisure travellers care much about superior aircraft?
Then again would leisure travellers care much about HND over NRT?
I cant see it improving on what JQ CNS-NRT is offering - on a superior aircraft for that matter.

 

[justinbrett]

I suspect this will be a predominant leisure route. Would leisure travellers care much about superior aircraft?

All my international trips are leisure, and I care!

The AAIF funding from the Queensland Government might cover some of the operating expenses, but at the same time the route suggests it's also aimed at the inbound market (Japanese visiting North Queensland) with the said Qld Government funding.

On a related note, it seems VA is still yet to properly release fares for those originating from Japan/HND (or anyone connecting from any of the other Japan cities via NH) as it seems they're being 'drip-feed' rather than released en-masse.

I don't think the Japanese want to make two stops either, especially when they have two Japanese airlines flying direct.

AAIF is only 100 million of government money (private matches the other half), no idea how that's divided up but there's already a lot of fingers in that pie. That won't subsidise a dud route for long (I am talking about this route operated with the -700, not the -8).

 

[Quickstatus]

I care!

Sure, but I suspect most leisure travellers dont even know what aircraft they are flying

 

[justinbrett]

Sure, but I suspect most leisure travellers dont even know what aircraft they are flying

The point was the direct flights, not the superior aircraft, but they go hand in hand. And I think all but backpackers care about stops/duration.

 

[Quickstatus]

Then there is the airport to TYO connection

NRT into TYO station is an easy non stop 50min Red NRT express
HND into TYO is a slightly shorter 30min but requiring 1-2 stops. There is a non stop but it is from a different station in TYO
The NRT express is a lot more comfortable than the HND trains.

...

not the superior aircraft

when you can get direct flights from SYD/BNE/MEL on superior aircraft?

Backpackers really only care about price, maybe stops
Then again, I dont know what the inbound japanese prefer, but given KIX,HND,NRT alternatives...and already going to tourist destinations of OOL, CNS, I cant imagine demand from that other than price sensitive pax.

 

[AviatorInsight]

Yes 400nm more going via MNL but it allows more payload than an intermediate stop near the destination?

Is an international airport necessary for a splash and dash? - I dont believe there are international airports in the Okinawa islands.

Yes I see your point. The next problem I see is crew duty times. We are going to be doing this 2 crew. It would be nice to have a third pilot along for the ride and extend our range but I’m not sure if they’re looking at that.

I honestly haven’t heard any information about how they are going to run this. It is getting closer, and with the delay of the Max, it could be a -700 kicking it off. I only just did a Haneda familiarisation in the simulator last night. We looked at a couple of the scenic sights, no fly areas, and practiced a couple of the missed approaches.

 

[simmomelb]

Backpackers really only care about price, maybe stops

Exactly, I can't imagine too many are concerned about the aircraft type.

I honestly haven’t heard any information about how they are going to run this. It is getting closer, and with the delay of the Max, it could be a -700 kicking it off.

What sort of a delay are we looking at? I've cleared missed something as I thought it was still being delivered on time.

 

[justinbrett]

Backpackers really only care about price, maybe stops
Then again, I dont know what the inbound japanese prefer, but given KIX,HND,NRT alternatives...

Which is what I said (all but backpackers...)

It's not much of a backpacker route - Only about 1% of our backpackers come from Japan (source) and it's way down on the list of destinations for our backpackers due to the price.

 

[simmomelb]

Surely this route is really just a placeholder until better (long-range) aircraft are obtained (although nothing official I believe) to serve more populous cities in Australia.
As others have pointed out, I just can't see how this will be sustainable long term when there are far better (direct) options for a majority of the Australian and Japanese population.

 

[HS-TQE]

Widebodies aren't likely to be coming to VA anytime soon in the short term, but medium-term would depend if Bain's 'IPO' of VA occurs before the end of 2023/Q1 2024.

I see that the IASC document has updated that VA has to utilise the HND capacity by 30 June 2023. I would assume the original time frame of 5 years still applies unless if I missed something.

[2023] IASC R01

PDF version

www.iasc.gov.au

 

[dajop]

Is an international airport necessary for a splash and dash? - I dont believe there are international airports in the Okinawa islands.

Except for the main airport in the islands, Naha itself. Fun fact, Jetstar Asia used to fly there from Singapore, pre-Covid.

 

[drron]

And Naha does have an International terminal plus an ANA lounge.

 

[Saab34]

The main question is why would someone travelling from somewhere other than CNS want to make two stops to get to HND when you can get direct flights from SYD/BNE/MEL on superior aircraft?

They are going to have to cut fares significantly and I feel like this will lose a lot of money for them if they don't get it right.

Pretty much. I mean I would just take a refund and rebook on the CNS-NRT Jetstar flight, vs taking the Virgin scenic tour via god knows where.

I wonder if ANA could operate it for Virgin for say a month? I guess that would depend on negotiations with the said bodies.

Those 737-700s are very old, engineering will be problematic, adding fuel stops also tightens the whole schedule. Sounds all very risky to me.