Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[HS-TQE]

The other alternative apart from the 700s (VBY and VBZ) is to fly an VAi registered 738 with load restrictions, or fill the 738 up and one-stop it somewhere.

I can't see Guam being used due as a fuel stop to the USA immigration requirements, passengers won't be happy if they have to clear immigration in Guam and re-check in again.

 

[Bagpuss]

Well they won’t want any bad press at all while they are in IPO mode.

The usual IPO comment (again)! Nothing to do with an IPO. All companies have ups and downs. If they were really in IPO mode they would have canceled the Japan experiment as it will cost money and probably canceled MAX orders as well to de-risk and reassess Airbus as there could be a number of comments about A220's, A320, A350 families being more suitable.
Boeing deposits were paid pre - administration so they're kinda written off anyway, which at one point was expected to happen.

I'm sure there will be a solution.

 

[justinbrett]

The other alternative apart from the 700s (VBY and VBZ) is to fly an VAi registered 738 with load restrictions, or fill the 738 up and one-stop it somewhere.

The -800 simply doesn't have the range to do it non-stop, by my numbers it couldn't even do it with 30 pax.

I can't see Guam being used due as a fuel stop to the USA immigration requirements, passengers won't be happy if they have to clear immigration in Guam and re-check in again.

Passengers will like what VA tells them to like. They may not have to clear immigration if it's just a tech stop.

 

[HS-TQE]

The -800 simply doesn't have the range to do it non-stop, by my numbers it couldn't even do it with 30 pax.



Passengers will like what VA tells them to like. They may not have to clear immigration if it's just a tech stop.

USA immigration requirements require all passengers and inhabitants of their aircraft to deplane and clear immigration as they are landing in their territory, regardless of whether they are in transit or stopping for fuel.

There have been very few exceptions such as the (now cancelled) NZ1/NZ2 service, but I can't see USA immigration giving VA an exception.

 

[HS-TQE]

The usual IPO comment (again)! Nothing to do with an IPO. All companies have ups and downs. If they were really in IPO mode they would have canceled the Japan experiment as it will cost money

Not if the Queensland Government and the North Queensland Tourism bodies are involved.

Can't see Bain declining (Taxpayer/Private) money from a government/private consortium to operate a service partly funded under a state's aviation fund in partnership with the state's respective airport and tourism organisations.

 

[Quickstatus]

The -800 simply doesn't have the range to do it non-stop, by my numbers it couldn't even do it with 30 pax.

I wonder if they did, would the regulators see this as a poor and non genuine attempt to utilise the slots?

 

[Bagpuss]

Not if the Queensland Government and the North Queensland Tourism bodies are involved.

That purely de-risks, there's still risk involved. Risk = money

 

[MooTime]

They’ll rebook every single passenger. Won’t risk the PR mess.

They did when LA was delayed for weeks and weeks. Booked the stranded passengers straight onto Qantas.

Exactly, they'll rebook pax on QF or so & all will be ok. no option i see otherwise.

This will be very interesting to see how this situation unfolds.
I feel it'll get bad PR no matter what they do, but yes, I agree that they will need to book passengers on another carrier to soften the negative attention a little - the media will be all over it.

I agree very interesting how it'll unfold, but I highly doubt media will be all over it, media only interested in QF, for good & bad, the rest, VA included are just blah blah.

 

[jakeseven7]

Not if the Queensland Government and the North Queensland Tourism bodies are involved.

Can't see Bain declining (Taxpayer/Private) money from a government/private consortium to operate a service partly funded under a state's aviation fund in partnership with the state's respective airport and tourism organisations.

VA2 have already cut their capacity to tart up for the IPO as well (I think they are back down to about 80% of pre-covid domestic) - hence high cancellation rates - also in an attempt to deliver better in time performance I expect as well.

 

[SeaWolf]

VA2 have already cut their capacity to tart up for the IPO as well (I think they are back down to about 80% of pre-covid domestic) - hence high cancellation rates - also in an attempt to deliver better in time performance I expect as well.

They don't really seem to have a high cancellation rate, better than QF in the most recent numbers in any case:

Airline On Time Performance Statistics —Monthly

Summary of current month Complete monthly report

www.bitre.gov.au

 

[Quickstatus]

VA2 have already cut their capacity to tart up for the IPO

Not sure of that...
Bitre suggests that Feb VA2.0 (group) scheduled sectors was 10805 while for Mar 12284

 

[docjames]

Been watching the discussion on this thread - decided to have a play around with “options”.

Fuel stop problematic - PNG not attractive lest aircraft gets stuck there but POM may be (best/only/an) option and is an extremely minor “diversion” from GC routing.

Other options like DPS - existing served airport…., CGK, MNL etc are all major diversions (MNL ~1000mi, rest even more).

Palau a more “halfway” option but recovery from there problematic. Guam a problem unless they get a US immigration exemption - seems unlikely. NZ probably a) were better planned about it and b) could immediately transport back to NZ ex-LAX if anyone not eligible for US entry was “stuck” on NZ1/2 - VA wouldn’t have this option in Guam if the aircraft went US.

Only other possibility would have been to wet lease something - feels late to be trying to do that economically / sustainably and for how long (pending the Max arrival).

Note direct CNS-HND by GC distance would be amongst the longest 737-operated nonstop route - I cant imagine it’s particularly viable with a NG (even a -700). Never mind weather related-diversions.

Net conclusion - it’s a bit of a mess, would love to be fly on the wall for internal discussion and assumptions on this route.

It’s going to be interesting to watch how initial operations go on this one.

 

[Quickstatus]

Only other possibility

Maybe they are trying for dispensation/extension number #3 as Max delivery still delayed...

 

[Bagpuss]

Maybe they are trying for dispensation/extension number #3 as Max delivery still delayed...

If it's delayed no doubt Virgin Australia will have some decent claims against Boeing

 

[jakeseven7]

Not sure of that...
Bitre suggests that Feb VA2.0 (group) scheduled sectors was 10805 while for Mar 12284

In the domestic market, Qantas operated at 96 per cent of pre-pandemic capacity, according to Goldman Sachs. Virgin operated at 80 per cent of its pre-pandemic capacity, suggesting it reduced flights to protect profits. The date of the company’s planned float is still unclear.

Could Qatar Airways swoop on Virgin?

Qatar Airway’s Ackbar Al Baker world-class display of negging last year hasn’t dissuaded chatter that it is the most logical Middle Eastern investor in Virgin.

www.afr.com

 

[Bagpuss]

Virgin operated at 80 per cent of its pre-pandemic capacity, suggesting it reduced flights to protect profits. The date of the company’s planned float is still unclear.

Could Qatar Airways swoop on Virgin?

Qatar Airway’s Ackbar Al Baker world-class display of negging last year hasn’t dissuaded chatter that it is the most logical Middle Eastern investor in Virgin.

www.afr.com

Virgin is obviously going to have less capacity taking it no longer has A330's in its fleet. Plus I'm sure they still have less aircraft.
So if you don't have the capacity (available aircraft or seats) I have no idea how that's "protecting profits" cause they couldn't introduce more seats even if they wanted to as I expect they are fully utilizing what's available to them. Add into that a shortage of pilots / crew etc.

There is no "planned float". There has been "serious work investigation and workshops into opportunities into a future float".

 

[jlw]

On a side note, the inaugural Bonza flight from Melbourne to Tamworth and back today had a Bonza captain and a Virgin Australia captain obviously line training on the MAX-8, some extra income for Bonza at least.

 

[Saab34]

On a side note, the inaugural Bonza flight from Melbourne to Tamworth and back today had a Bonza captain and a Virgin Australia captain obviously line training on the MAX-8, some extra income for Bonza at least.

Really? Must be something CASA organised. Very rare to see competitors doing this.

The Bonza pilots are probably ex Virgin also.

 

[Quickstatus]

Virgin operated at 80 per cent of its pre-pandemic capacity, suggesting it reduced flights to protect profits

VA relinquished 25-30??? 737, all of its non 737 including A330/B777
Easy to see they can only achieve 80% of pre Rona capacity

 

[henrus]

On a side note, the inaugural Bonza flight from Melbourne to Tamworth and back today had a Bonza captain and a Virgin Australia captain obviously line training on the MAX-8, some extra income for Bonza at least.

I'm curious how did you figure that out? did they announce it? did they have a VA lanyard/pins?

It seems odd Bonza would allow that.