Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[AIRwin]

So will be a money burner this month, will be interesting if the MAX is able to take a full load.

Hope there is some compensation from Boeing!

 

[HS-TQE]

Hope there is some compensation from Boeing!

Would also compliment the Queensland Government's AAIF money that would also no doubt be also underwriting part of the expected first month of 'heavier' than normal start up losses.

 

[jrfsp]

Would also compliment the Queensland Government's AAIF money that would also no doubt be also underwriting part of the expected first month of 'heavier' than normal start up losses.

Although would that extend to cover blocked seats due to range limits of aircraft, I can’t see that

 

[henrus]

Anyone clever enough to work out the rough $$$ it will burn on gas?

This is a hard one because fuel prices are not really published however Shell does publish some public rates on their PPP portal, Australia isn't covered but Haneda is:

Aviation Fuel Stations | Refuel an Aircraft | Shell Global

Use this page to find Shell Aviation facilities in locations around the globe, services offered in each location, prices and contact information.

www.shell.com

In Australian dollars fuel at Haneda (again public rate not hedged one) averages about AU$1.60 per L. The 737-700 has a capacity of ~26,022 litres of which I'd guess ~90% is being used. My guess is therefore about ~AU$37,000 per flight but I suspect this dollar figure might be on the lower end of the scale, someone might be able to confirm?

Assuming they target a ~70% load factor meaning they uplift 90 people it'd mean ~$400 per person in fuel costs alone. I think things will actually be worse when the 737 MAXs. Very basic searches seems to indicate that it costs upwards of $13,000 to lease a 737 MAX per day meaning at least ~$6,500 per flight (and again these are low end figures).

Would also compliment the Queensland Government's AAIF money that would also no doubt be also underwriting part of the expected months of 'heavier' than normal start up losses

The AAIF is clouded in such heavy secrecy that who knows how it's actually operated. From the limited details online they're subsiding $100m from the state gov and then the other half also $100m is "private sector" based and that's about it.

Scoot applied last year in June and was approved for their OOL-SIN flight but funding only lasted a year hence they're now ending the route, meanwhile the EVA deal has a requirement on number of services per week for year one, two and three (so they've likely got a 3 year deal).

Assuming it's just a flat amount per flight and not underwriting, then using recent price was $200 million was over over 4 years (so $50 million per year), it works out at ~$137,000 per day of funding but it's worth noting there are now ~15 services getting funding (I know not all equal lenghts) but that's ~$9100 per departing/return or ~$4550 per flight?

The above is all just random guesses using prices found on the internet so if anyone knows more or can debunk my very basic maths above I'd love to know.

 

[Digicola]

It's north of PNG now. Shouldn't we be hearing more details about the ANA partnership?

The lack of any mention of NH in the newsroom article is quite telling.

 

[Saab34]

In Australian dollars fuel at Haneda (again public rate not hedged one) averages about AU$1.60 per L. The 737-700 has a capacity of ~26,022 litres of which I'd guess ~90% is being used. My guess is therefore about ~AU$37,000 per flight but I suspect this dollar figure might be on the lower end of the scale, someone might be able to confirm?

Assuming they target a ~70% load factor meaning they uplift 90 people it'd mean ~$400 per person in fuel costs alone. I think things will actually be worse when the 737 MAXs. Very basic searches seems to indicate that it costs upwards of $13,000 to lease a 737 MAX per day meaning at least ~$6,500 per flight (and again these are low end figures).

Thanks for the detail.

Really sounds like a 330/787 would be more profitable operating from Sydney or Brisbane.

Does seem like a waste having a whole 737M allocated to this route.

 

[henrus]

The lack of any mention of NH in the newsroom article is quite telling.

They've got to put a VA aircraft on the ground in Japan first

Those VA priority boarding signs at Haneda have been collecting a fair amount of dust. I saw them at Haneda in December 2021 and from comments online they've been there since about Jan 2020, for the first time tonight 3 years 5 months later they'll finally be used!

It's worth noting ANA actually have codeshares on the VA flight using NH6417 from HND to CNS and NH6416 from CNS to HND (ableit these only seem to price at full fares right now). I'm not 100% sure but I think the benefits of booking the NH codeshare include NH miles earning and possibly lounge access for NH elites at HND?

 

[Digicola]

They've got to put a VA aircraft on the ground in Japan first

Those VA priority boarding signs at Haneda have been collecting a fair amount of dust. I saw them at Haneda in December 2021 and from comments online they've been there since about Jan 2020, for the first time tonight 3 years 5 months later they'll finally be used!

It's worth noting ANA actually have codeshares on the VA flight using NH6417 from HND to CNS and NH6416 from CNS to HND (ableit these only seem to price at full fares right now). I'm not 100% sure but I think the benefits of booking the NH codeshare include NH miles earning and possibly lounge access for NH elites at HND?

Tell me about it. I was at HND in May 2020 and up against the northern wall of the checkin hall were piled up all the signs. Amongst them were the freshly shipped Virgin (no pun intended) signs.

To think I was supposed to be on the inaugural over 3 years ago. Was quite a mess trying to get to Japan after VA went into administration last minute, airlines were slashing schedules, and before Japan closed to foreigners!

I had been delaying a few NH bookings to see if we’d get any details on the partnership and ended up biting the bullet, I guess the Krismiles backdoor is the way to go if nothing is announced in the next few days.

 

[Bagpuss]

Interesting point which I’ve just noticed. If you want to book with the starting airport as HND you can’t book via Virgin Australia. You have to book via ANA. The web booking engine states this as soon as you select HND as the “fly from” location

 

[henrus]

I had been delaying a few NH bookings to see if we’d get any details on the partnership and ended up biting the bullet, I guess the Krismiles backdoor is the way to go if nothing is announced in the next few days.

I'm 99% sure we'd expect nothing in the next few days. It's worth noting today's flight went off with very limited attention (all media events etc were canned)

Looking at the articles from today they're mainly talking about the sale rather then the flight:



Once the 737 MAX ends up on the new route then they'll have the proper launch and perhaps more details about a further ANA partnership.

 

[Thibault]

From the media-room article :

“Today is also a significant day for Velocity members who can now earn and redeem Points when traveling to over 500 destinations around the world with Virgin Australia and our partner airlines.”

I would have expected that they release details about their codeshare agreements and frequent flyer partnership with ANA - as the article focuses on their new Tokyo service.

But I cannot see anything - I don't understand why they'd make this statement if the principal airline - ANA in that case - is still not 'activated'.

Would have been a great double-dip for VA and Velocity!

 

[pauly7]

Does seem like a waste having a whole 737M allocated to this route.

Some nasty people have accused them of slot sitting

 

[MooTime]

Some nasty people have accused them of slot sitting

<redacted>
Shirley we can give it at least couple months... At an absolute minimum, no?

 

[Saab34]

Watching the ATC flow into Haneda at this time of night is very impressive. Talk about tight sequencing

 

[HS-TQE]

<redacted>
Shirley we can give it at least couple months... At an absolute minimum, no?

Considering the Queensland Government are involved financially (through the AAIF) in VA's CNS-HND, it will be a long while before VA makes their next move with that slot. At minimum it would be 18 months.

I'm also certain there are certain conditions that would need to be met (e.g for example: loads are going very dismal at <30% or thereabouts for say 4 months and the AAIF funds not enough to cover those losses) for a subsidy contract to end earlier than their agreed period.

 

[MooTime]

Considering the Queensland Government are involved financially in VA's CNS-HND, it will be a long while before VA makes their next move with that slot. At minimum it would be 18 months.

I'm also certain there are certain conditions that would need to be met (e.g loads are going very dismal at <30% or thereabouts for say 4 months and the AAIF funds not enough to cover those losses) for a subsidy contract to end earlier than their agreed period.

Exactly.

 

[twinaisle]

have been collecting a fair amount of dust. I saw them at Haneda in December 2021 and from comments online they've been there since about Jan 2020, for the first time tonight 3 years 5 months later they'll finally be used!


We use new signs

 

[encryptededdy]

Is it ANA ground staff?

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

For Digicola, yes, putting your SQ KF # into the NH (ANA) booking, is the best thing to aim for, if going via CNS is a pain in the you know where.
SYD/PER direct to HND/NRT is a good thing, if you don't have the time to go via CNS, where you or I might have to overnight to make sure we get the flight to HND with VA.
I don't live in CNS, so if I have to go to HND with VA, I would have to do an overnighter, to make sure I get that flight.
Putting SQ KF # number into the NH (ANA) booking, will earn 65% less VFF points, as its not 1:1.
Have to also make sure that its in an earning class, if in Y/subclass of Y.
Flying NH also gives lounge access in SYD/PER.
If VA and NH were going to put something out, they would have done so by now.
Looks like its a half hearted sort of partnership/liaision as of now, those 2.

 

[Mattg]

This is on EF. So will be a money burner this month, will be interesting if the MAX is able to take a full load.

Anyone clever enough to work out the rough $$$ it will burn on gas?

The Cost of Operating a Commercial Flight

Ever wondered how much it costs a commercial airline to operate a flight?

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au