Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[jrfsp]

The -700s lease costs wouldn’t be much, they are not far off being scrapped. MAX lease costs on the other hand..

Hopefully VA2 are procuring better lease rates than VA1, the A330s were on terrible lease rates

 

[justinbrett]

Didn’t stop VA1 with majority foreign ownership. IIRC a 51% Australian owned shelf company, VAI operated the international services. Like AN before it.

Yes, but if VAi are going to have widebodies that are owned by QR (which is the context of the comment I was replying to) - that will be difficult.

If it's merely a lease, then there's no reason why VA couldn't lease it now without QR. The context was the implication QR would "donate" the widebodies.

 

[Saab34]

The order book around the MAX seems to be split between CALC and the remaining order from pre bankruptcy, with an unknown lessor.

Pre Bankruptcy they had re negotiated a million times, and ended up with 25 MAX-10 and 23 MAX-8. The order post bankruptcy was only 25 MAX-10. In April 2022 they took an offer from CALC for 4 737-8, and added another 4 a few months later.

Considering the MAX10 is still from the original 2012 order, they would certainly have favourable lease rates. And the CALC offer was likely picked up at a very good time as nobody was ordering just yet, good rates no doubt.

Those who are looking to lease new 737M right now will be in for a fright re cost.

If it's merely a lease, then there's no reason why VA couldn't lease it now without QR. The context was the implication QR would "donate" the widebodies.

I don’t think they would be able to lease new or near new widebodies at the moment. Market seems tight.

 

[justinbrett]

I don’t think they would be able to lease new or near new widebodies at the moment. Market seems tight.

I don't either, but if QR are supposedly the knight in shining armour coming to save VA (as some here suggest), then presumably VA could wet lease a few QR jets.

QF has wet leased AY jets, NZ has done similar.

 

[Saab34]

It’s probably more what QR wants to do with Virgin, vs Virgin asking nicely for some leases machines. Without a doubt QR would want a larger international influence from VA if it took a stake.

With such a large potential stake, Akbar will be the one making the calls, like he does with many things.

No idea if Virgin could operate to DOH in addition to QR and its caps?

 

[HS-TQE]

VBY and VBZ are owned outright by Virgin.

Technically 'mortgaged'. As per the other 25+ mortgaged 737-800s that are listed as 'owned'.

VA doesn't 'own' any Boeing outright, the only unencumbered aircraft Virgin Australia has is the Fokkers, and as we know that's being phased out.

 

[HS-TQE]

Didn’t stop VA1 with majority foreign ownership. IIRC a 51% Australian owned shelf company, VAI operated the international services. Like AN before it.

Correct. VAi and ANi prior to that were pretty much 'paper-work' subsidiaries used to operate international rights (with separate AOCs). ANi and VAi were pretty much a collection of filing cabinets in the offices of AN and VA 1.0.

 

[justinbrett]

It’s probably more what QR wants to do with Virgin, vs Virgin asking nicely for some leases machines. Without a doubt QR would want a larger international influence from VA if it took a stake.

With such a large potential stake, Akbar will be the one making the calls, like he does with many things.

No idea if Virgin could operate to DOH in addition to QR and its caps?

But then I bring you back to my point, QR can't inject cash or assets into VAi if the total foreign ownership goes above 49%.

I'm not sure I agree QR wants VA to fly international - quite the opposite - I think it wants a domestic feeder. Why would it want to split long haul with another carrier? VA service levels don't really align with those of QR, especially if we are talking about long haul international.

However VA or QF could fly to DOH in addition to the QR caps, those apply to Qatar based airlines only, there is a reciprocal cap for Australian based airlines. If VA was granted these rights, it is definitely not a given that ACCC would allow codesharing on the route.

Also not forgetting that any investment to VA is subject to the Foreign Investment Review Board - and if a single foreign state owned carrier is to have majority control of a domestic carrier, you can be certain there will be close scrutiny.

 

[jakeseven7]

I'm not sure I agree QR wants VA to fly international - quite the opposite - I think it wants a domestic feeder.

However VA or QF could fly to DOH in addition to the QR caps, those apply to Qatar based airlines only, there is a reciprocal cap for Australian based airlines.

Last time Australian airlines tried to fly to the Middle East it ended up in tears of red ink for everyone.

If QR, SQ, NZ, any of the usual named / known suspects are brave enough to try (again in some cases) with VA2/3 I think you are right, they will try and keep it contained to low value short haul international like they are now.

 

[HS-TQE]

Considering the tears SQ, NZ, et al went through with Ansett and VA 1.0 (and the egos on both ends), I don't see them getting involved with VA 2.0 financially when there are higher ROI on other investments/partnerships elsewhere.

SQ also has their hands full on the Air India/Vistara merger, which has a lot more potential financially then any Australian investment they've had in the past or in the present.

 

[mrmerc500]

Delayed again on 2nd day, Aircraft maintenance

 

[Harrison_133]

Technically 'mortgaged'. As per the other 25+ mortgaged 737-800s that are listed as 'owned'.

That’s not correct. VBY, VBZ, VOL & VON are exceptions, and are unencumbered in the same way as the Fokkers you refer to.

But then I bring you back to my point, QR can't inject cash or assets into VAi if the total foreign ownership goes above 49%.

They wouldn’t be injecting anything into VAI. It’s just a shell company that allows them to circumvent foreign ownership requirements and operate internationally. That wouldn’t stop QR from injecting cash/assets into the parent company of VAI.

 

[HS-TQE]

That’s not correct. VBY, VBZ, VOL & VON are exceptions, and are unencumbered in the same way as the Fokkers you refer to.

Without public access to the VA financials, it's possible Bain may had paid down some of the mortgage bill for the legacy 737-700s and at least 2x 737-800s to once again go unencumbered.

 

[justinbrett]

They wouldn’t be injecting anything into VAI. It’s just a shell company that allows them to circumvent foreign ownership requirements and operate internationally. That wouldn’t stop QR from injecting cash/assets into the parent company of VAI.

It's not quite that simple, VAi has its own AOC. There is a fair amount of cooking the books needed to get VAi to meet the foreign ownership restrictions - the more assets provided to it from a foreign source, the more difficult this becomes. Previously there was genuine Australian investment in VA, that's a much smaller percentage now (<5%), and with talk of even more foreign investment from QR, that's going to be much more difficult that previous iterations.

 

[Quickstatus]

Bain may had paid down some of the mortgage bill

Or renegotiated the loans- paid down or written down?

.....

Are the -700 going to exclusively operate 77/78?
Why not remove a few rows of seats to further reduce weight and market the extra leg room?
Are there regulatory issues when this happens?

 

[HS-TQE]

Or renegotiated the loans- paid down or written down?

According to the fleetlists VOL and VON are legacy VB 2003 deliveries, combine that with the legacy 700s, it's also possible Bain may have written the value of VOL/VON/VBY/VBZ down to 'zero' during the last mortgage renegotiations.

The Fokkers and the (now sold) legacy Airbus (VH-FNP) were already written to Zero pre-administration, hence why they were the only unencumbered aircraft at the time of voluntary administration in 2020.

 

[Saab34]

Delayed again on 2nd day, Aircraft maintenance

This route with be the death of these aircraft. 20 years old. Flogged hard over the years. Now being sent on missions that is at the end of its range, for 17 hours a day. Might be a long few weeks!

I still think they should keep that second -700 based in Cairns on the ground as a backup. The second -700 just left Cairns a moment ago for BNE.

 

[bcworld]

This route with be the death of these aircraft. 20 years old. Flogged hard over the years. Now being sent on missions that is at the end of its range, for 17 hours a day. Might be a long few weeks!

I still think they should keep that second -700 based in Cairns on the ground as a backup. The second -700 just left Cairns a moment ago for BNE.

I would've thought this is less taxing on the aircraft than multiple sectors per day.

 

[VOZ102]

53 pax on day 1, 35 pax up and back today. Capped at around 77pax (also the flight number!). VBZ will do the flying most days as it burns 2.5% less fuel than VBY.

 

[_flyer]

Wow, the numbers are sooooo low - 35. I didn't expect them to be that low. How will they fill the MAX?