Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[Inlander]

The real "fruit" in any airlines stake in VA has to be indirect access to the Trans Pacific routes from East Aussie to West USA. This is one of the most profitable Trans ocean routes in the world.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The real "fruit" in any airlines stake in VA has to be indirect access to the Trans Pacific routes from East Aussie to West USA. This is one of the most profitable Trans ocean routes in the world.

Maybe 10 years ago. With direct flights to USA from Asian countries now possible that were not before I don't think this is the carrot it once was. Certainly the open skies agreement has opened up significant capacity and supply that was not there beforehand.

 

[Inlander]

Maybe 10 years ago. With direct flights to USA from Asian countries now possible that were not before I don't think this is the carrot it once was. Certainly the open skies agreement has opened up significant capacity and supply that was not there beforehand.

Agree but fare yields are much higher on direct Trans pacific

 

[HS-TQE]

Maybe 10 years ago. With direct flights to USA from Asian countries now possible that were not before I don't think this is the carrot it once was. Certainly the open skies agreement has opened up significant capacity and supply that was not there beforehand.

Also to mention the Trans-Pacific market has grown from the days when it was only QF and UA. Back in the QF/UA duopoly days, the route would've been considered the "highest yielding" in the world.

Since then, VA, DL and AA has since entered the market, and whilst all competitors have been making money and finding "their niche", the yields have since gone down.

The yields have gone down to a point where airlines had to form JVs (such as VA/DL and QF/AA) to continue earning money on the route. Any new non-stop competitor would basically be "suicide" considering the numerous one-stop options such as NZ, HA, FJ and co on top of the non-stop JV airline groups on the Trans-Pac route.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The odds would have to be shortening on VA delaying the opening of this new route.

Tokyo Disneyland and Universal Studios Tokyo both closed until at least mid March. Confidence in tourists would be very low.

Sadly for Virgin now is not the right time, but perhaps late April or late May would be?

 

[AIRwin]

Brand new magazine for this month...

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

VA is asking ADL - BNE - HND about $6000 in J return.
SQ is asking ADL - SIN - HND about $4600 in J return.
Higher SC earn is one thing, but the plane that VA is using is older now.
Test date is Dec 2020.
SQ is offering the newest J ie on their A350, where as VAi via BNE is offering the older A330.
Think I will wait and see which planes VA will be bringing in before making a booking, either Dec 2020 or Dec 2021/2022, or go with SQ.

 

[Must...Fly!]

To complicate matters it seems there are rumours A330 pilots are being asked to take leave or leave without pay due to shuttering of HKG and a now big excess of flight crew. I think talks with the lessors might be more advanced than presumed after the mid year update.

Can VA afford to fly likely very empty aircraft to Tokyo? On the other hand, can they afford not to start flying there?

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

There might be some revenue if ANA NH pax are keen on BNE as their initial arrival airport into Aust as NH don't fly there from HND or NRT.
Without HKG services with the VA, maybe VA pax interested in going to HKG might use the VA HND flights.
Pity that the VA J fares BNE - HND flights are so pricey and no real premY except econX.

 

[jakeseven7]

AFF members have been predicting for weeks now this route is going to be a disaster for VA in the short term, I think its almost inevitable that they will postpone the launch now.

 

[jase05]

AFF members have been predicting for weeks now this route is going to be a disaster for VA in the short term, I think its almost inevitable that they will postpone the launch now.

I think they will have to. From everything I’ve heard the bookings were very good initially but I would imagine people will start requesting refunds soon. Probably holding out to see what the other airlines do also, I’d imagine all flights to Japan may be in danger if things don’t improve

 

[jakeseven7]

I think they will have to. From everything I’ve heard the bookings were very good initially but I would imagine people will start requesting refunds soon. Probably holding out to see what the other airlines do also, I’d imagine all flights to Japan may be in danger if things don’t improve

Agreed - and it is not like this time they have a 'guaranteed' strong domestic business to prop up yet another loss making international route up like they propped up the disaster that was Hong Kong.

Corporates are starting to put in domestic travel restrictions now as well in AU, so we know domestic $ are going to decrease.

Add to that - VA's parents are all financially wobbly, one is basically bankrupt (HNA) and another is on the edge and has been for a while (Etihad) and another is being slammed with Corona fallout as well (Singapore). There isn't going to be money coming from those guys to prop VA up either.

 

[rapitts]

Agreed - and it is not like this time they have a 'guaranteed' strong domestic business to prop up yet another loss making international route up like they propped up the disaster that was Hong Kong.

Corporates are starting to put in domestic travel restrictions now as well in AU, so we know domestic $ are going to decrease.

Add to that - VA's parents are all financially wobbly, one is basically bankrupt (HNA) and another is on the edge and has been for a while (Etihad) and another is being slammed with Corona fallout as well (Singapore). There isn't going to be money coming from those guys to prop VA up either.

Yeah I'm waiting for Virgin to postpone since I've booked a flight over at Easter, cant see that going ahead now. Hopefully get a full refund back from Virgin !

Need to start cancelling the accomdation within the next few weeks to get a refund.

 

[jase05]

VA offering 20k bonus points for a J return trip to HND or LAX

 

[pauly7]

VA offering 20k bonus points for a J return trip to HND or LAX

Oh dear. And so it begins....

 

[jase05]

Oh dear. And so it begins....

VA has done similar in the past and it’s no different to VA or QF doing targeted DSC promotions. All airlines will need to do something to stimulate bookings in the coming months

 

[Must...Fly!]

Oh dear. And so it begins....

There's nothing oh dear about it. Promos like this (actually far more generous) have been available over the past few years.

 

[eastwest101]

AFF members have been predicting for weeks now this route is going to be a disaster for VA in the short term, I think its almost inevitable that they will postpone the launch now.

COVID-19 crisis: Airlines call for government relief and halt to slot rules

IATA says Middle East governments and global regulators must support local airlines to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus crisis

www.arabianindustry.com

I think a key issue for all airlines will be temporary relief from the current slot rules - I read that HGK have already suspended their "use it or lose it" rules so will be up to the Japanese Government to do the same for HND and any other slot constrained Japanese airports?

 

[SeaWolf]

Looks like the Tokyo Olympics are going ahead, so that's a plus, for both VA and QF.

Tokyo Olympic Games will go ahead despite coronavirus threat, IOC says, as WHO urges patience

International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach gives his unequivocal backing to the Games going ahead, with the event set to run from July 24 to August 9.

www.abc.net.au

 

[rapitts]

Looks like the Tokyo Olympics are going ahead, so that's a plus, for both VA and QF.

Tokyo Olympic Games will go ahead despite coronavirus threat, IOC says, as WHO urges patience

International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach gives his unequivocal backing to the Games going ahead, with the event set to run from July 24 to August 9.

www.abc.net.au

I cant see that happening, we'll probably see more uptake of this virus in the affected countries now so in a few months it could be alot bigger. April will be a crunch month.

China managed to lock down a city/region and build temporary hospitals, cant see that happening elsewhere !

Also received an email from my kids school stating that NSW Health have recommended to self-isolate if returning from Japan !