Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[HS-TQE]

They would most likely do that, ie, CNS - NRT, but thats further away, isn't it?
Guess it would have to be MNL if they need it.
Or ICN.

As said, alternates are unlikely to be "out of the way" airports (i.e far from ETOPS requirements). MNL or ICN are not within ETOPs.

 

[justinbrett]

They would most likely do that, ie, CNS - NRT, but thats further away, isn't it?
Guess it would have to be MNL if they need it.
Or ICN.

An alternate is somewhere you go if you are unable to land at your destination, and usually fairly close (but not too close that it would share the same wx problems) I’m unsure of Japanese planning requirements as to whether you can hold the other Tokyo airport as an alternate, but NGO would be an option. MNL is way too far and ICN involves overflying half of Japan and it’s many suitable airports.

An emergency divert is somewhere you go en route when something goes wrong or you otherwise need to land. This will be a list of varying levels of acceptability. GUM would definitely be one as its on the flight route and would be used for ETOPS.

For example:

In this plan, POM, GUM, SPN and NJA are being used for ETOPS, with NGO as the alternate. (This is just an example and not an operational plan).

 

[AviatorInsight]

Would the alternate not just be NRT or are we talking something different here ..

May not always be NRT.

Here are the other destination alternate airports considered:

SDJ - Sendai
NGO - Nagoya
KIX - Kansai

 

[AviatorInsight]

As per most flights, VA will have alternates. Unlikely that alternate will be on out of the way places (i.e MNL), and GUM is less likely to be an option due to US Immigration Requirements (i.e clear immigration and re-check in transit) for all planes unless if they have an exception.

As discussed before other airlines operate similar if not longer legs than VA on their 737-8 MAX. GOL, an LCC in South America, operates regular 7.5-8 hr flights on the MAX in a all-Y config (Economy Plus and Standard Economy)

I'm sure all airlines that operate 7-8 hr flights on the MAX have all their alternate airports in case of diversions.

There are destination alternates and en route alternates. We don’t always need to carry a destination alternate if that airport has multiple non intersecting runways.

Diversions into Guam and Saipan don’t require additional TSA requirements provided no local personnel need to access the cabin. Also a flight crew member or engineer can exit the aircraft to conduct a walk around but must not interact with local personnel.

CBP has the authority to deplane pax and remain in a secure area until the flight departs, but this will usually be after the 3 hour mark.

A scheduled technical stop or en route diversion meet these requirements for entry into US Territory.

There are contingency plans and pretty sure I read somewhere the tech stop for refuel in AUS/ PNG and not GUM but that's due to weather events.

Last week's event at hnd was unplanned for all airlines.

Guam, Saipan and Moresby will be used as tech stops northbound, and Darwin will be used southbound. Flight ops management will make the call to tech stop and will be a last resort. That’s after cancelling the flight!

 

[elanshin]

That's not quite as low as JQ's lowest sale prices, but not far off either.

Guess they really want to fill some bums in seats.

 

[Bagpuss]

That's not quite as low as JQ's lowest sale prices, but not far off either.

Guess they really want to fill some bums in seats.



View attachment 366560

It's a lite fare so less perks. The choice fare would have been interesting to see.

I'd don't see that as a total bargain. When you consider flights BNE to PER which is the closest comparison you'd get $225 each way, so $550. Yes a few extra in airport fees etc. But that's not a race to the bottom.

Virgin's happy hours during January (mainly the first), tend to be the best from my experience.

 

[antycbr]

It's a lite fare so less perks. The choice fare would have been interesting to see.

I'd don't see that as a total bargain. When you consider flights BNE to PER which is the closest comparison you'd get $225 each way, so $550. Yes a few extra in airport fees etc. But that's not a race to the bottom.

Virgin's happy hours during January (mainly the first), tend to be the best from my experience.

A few extra? Add $60 straight up for the AU departure tax, let alone all of the other taxes AU imposes for international screening, plus the Japanese equivalent.

This is in part what makes Tasman flying unattractive to VA - you lose close to half a typical Tasman fare in tax compared to using the same aircraft to operate an equivalent domestic sector length.

 

[Saab34]

This is in part what makes Tasman flying unattractive to VA - you lose close to half a typical Tasman fare in tax compared to using the same aircraft to operate an equivalent domestic sector length.

Half is being generous. They often advertised fares pre bankruptcy in which they made a couple of bucks from the fare. I often flew Tasman return on VA for $250-$300 return.

NZ Government are continuing to hike charges also. Airport charges are also climbing at unsustainable levels.

 

[Harrison_133]

The initial 2019 determination which awarded Virgin one daily frequency on the Japan (Tokyo Haneda) route expires in October 2024.

Virgin has submitted their request to the IASC to have the determination renewed, with conditions of Air Canada and Qatar Airways codeshare to be maintained.

Other applications for the capacity are open until 30 January 2024. It will be interesting to see the Qantas Group response to this.

Japan - 15 January 2024

The International Air Services Commission (the Commission) has received an application

www.iasc.gov.au

 

[PERLHR]

The initial 2019 determination which awarded Virgin one daily frequency on the Japan (Tokyo Haneda) route expires in October 2024.

Virgin has submitted their request to the IASC to have the determination renewed, with conditions of Air Canada and Qatar Airways codeshare to be maintained.

Other applications for the capacity are open until 30 January 2024. It will be interesting to see the Qantas Group response to this.

Japan - 15 January 2024

The International Air Services Commission (the Commission) has received an application

www.iasc.gov.au

Is there any particular reasoning as to why VA cannot be permitted to continue to fly the route? Not privy to how this all works.....but why should.they not continue if they wish?

 

[encryptededdy]

Is there any particular reasoning as to why VA cannot be permitted to continue to fly the route? Not privy to how this all works.....but why should.they not continue if they wish?

Qantas will probably argue that they'll use the slot with an A330, thus providing way more capacity between Australia and Haneda than Virgin.

The question would be is it better to have a 5th airline offering competition on this route (but with less seats) or to have an extra 100 daily seats?

Of course on the other hand, will Qantas do this by just moving over a Narita flight (and therefore not actually adding any more capacity to Tokyo)?

 

[Harrison_133]

Is there any particular reasoning as to why VA cannot be permitted to continue to fly the route? Not privy to how this all works.....but why should.they not continue if they wish?

They certainly can and likely will continue flying the route, but the initial ruling in 2019 was for a period of 5 years so they have to go through the red tape of renewing the determination.

I imagine the Qantas Group will mount a case considering their previous opposition, and the Haneda slots being quite coveted. Seat capacity will probably be one of their key arguments, noting that the initial determination was made on the basis Virgin would use a 275 seat A330 and they're now utilising a 176 seat 737.

 

[HS-TQE]

I suspect the Queensland Government will be one of the parties involved in the submission considering their (and CNS and NQ Tourism) involvement in using private and taxpayer funds into subsidising the CNS-HND flight through the AAIF in the name of "Inbound Tourism for Queensland", which IIRC is delivering mixed results (i.e not great but not dismal at the same time).

North Queensland Tourism and recovery from Natural Disasters could potentially be used as arguments from a 'Tourism for North Queensland' perspective.

 

[elanshin]

I'm sure QF will fight for the slot. I wonder if there's an off chance JL/NH might even fight for it.

Right now I believe its

JL 1 slot (SYD <> HND) b789 (maybe 773)
QF 2 slots (SYD <> HND x2) a333
NH 2 slots (SYD <> HND x2) b789
VA 1 slot (CNS <> HND) b737-8

 

[HS-TQE]

I'm sure QF will fight for the slot. I wonder if there's an off chance JL/NH might even fight for it.

Right now I believe its

JL 1 slot (SYD <> HND)
QF 2 slots (SYD <> HND x2)
NH 2 slots (SYD <> HND x2)
VA 1 slot (CNS <> HND)

This is an Australian slot allocated by the Japanese authorities, it can really be either QF or VA. HND slots are also a bit more restrictive than other Japanese routes (i.e no wetleases into HND, etc).

Extremely slim but very much no chance of an Australian outsider being interested (i.e Alliance) in grabbing the slot

 

[elanshin]

This is an Australian slot allocated by the Japanese authorities, it can really be either QF or VA. HND slots are also a bit more restrictive than other Japanese routes (i.e no wetleases into HND, etc).

Extremely slim but very much no chance of an Australian outsider being interested (i.e Alliance) in grabbing the slot

Ah, I forgot that it was a bilateral slot pair award, additional 2 each for JP and 2 for AU carriers in 2019.

Wonder if QF would make the argument to run MEL <> HND with an a330 as the argument against VA. That was their original intention (with an a380 from SYD).

 

[MooTime]

It's not always about the size....or is it?

Competition a factor, we constantly see what QF to do Aussie routes, fly the route to kill off the opposition then hike up the fares, not sure about others, but I'm so over this tactic.

 

[elanshin]

It's not always about the size....or is it?

Competition a factor, we constantly see what QF to do Aussie routes, fly the route to kill off the opposition then hike up the fares, not sure about others, but I'm so over this tactic.

In this case though, NH and JL both have an effect on QF prices though. QF prices have come down significantly over 2023 as NH double daily kicked into full swing and they increased their own supply.

There is a world where i can see QF arguing for BNE + MEL and a380 from SYD (as they get their last 2 back from refurbishment) to put all their ops into HND.

 

[antycbr]

Presumably the QF slot was awarded for a similar timeframe for review? I think given the amount of perceived "protection" QF has had from the Commonwealth Government, it would be an exceptionally poor look to take the slot off VA and hand it to QF, even if the outcome is not as optimal compared to a widebody operation.

 

[Harrison_133]

Presumably the QF slot was awarded for a similar timeframe for review?

Yes. Both determinations were made in October 2019 for a period of 5 years.