Waiting a week before flying for international business reward seats to be released?

[Shervin]

A week ago, I booked a return trip to Spain trying to get business reward where possible. I'm a little flexible on dates (depart 17/8/22 returning 30/8/22). Route is SYD - AUH - MAD.

Of the 4 flights I could only get AUH to MAD in business, MAD to AUH economy reward, paid SYD - AUH on a separate booking because absolutely no reward seats were available.

Today I checked out of curiosity. I see SYD to AUH business/first available. Also MAD to AUH business available! What's worse is the SYD - AUH economy return price went down by $300!!!

My question to you guys is, should I have just waited until a week before flying (I booked these flights last week)? Or is this just pure luck that it got cheaper and more business reward seats became available in the week before flying? My suspicion is people redeemed these reward seats ages ago, and can cancel for $60 so there's a low cost to hoarding seats and the $60 is the premium on the option to fly? Or is it nobody buying these seats so Etihad is trying to sell it anyway they can?


Edit: ended up booking the MAD-AUH business reward. Here's how many seats they had available:

 

[bam71]

It is luck, although in my experience pre-covid at least, I’ve found EY can release more redemption seats closer to departure.

 

[Shervin]

Update. Checked again today, and found a business reward seat for SYD-AUH on 17/8/22. Cancelled my economy tickets (SYD-AUH). Called up velocity, booked this business reward, and combined it with my AUH-MAD, so now I don't have to go through immigration at AUH!

Combining the booking worked out better on a total cost basis. Originally paid AUH-MAD 53k points and $331, and would have paid SYD-AUH 104k pts + 418.19. So total would have been 157k pts and $749.29. Velocity call centre gave me the full booking for 139k points and $713.49 charged. Forgot to mention I paid $300 in cancellation charges for the econ ticket.

I don't have any flight booked from AUH - SYD. But after what has transpired, I'll take my chances and book last minute something.

 

[bam71]

Good on you!

 

[bcworld]

Edit: ended up booking the MAD-AUH business reward. Here's how many seats they had available:
View attachment 287617

The seat map is not an indicator of how many seats are left for sale.

 

[Dr Ralph]

I would not have waited. Book when you see it.