Why does Virgin have such a meagre presence in NTL?

[Tuddy]

Looking at the schedules out of NTL, JQ has 7 A320 flights/day whilst DJ has 3 (2 X F100 and a 738). How is it that in a catchment the size of NTL and in a market where JQ is seemingly making a killing, DJ has a bare bones schedule? I can understand not seeing the OOL flights reinstated any time soon (they seemed to not be making any money - hence the dropping of the route). But how about elsewhere in Queensland (CNS, MCY...) or other capitals (ADL, PER, HBA...)? Why not a beefing up of the existing schedule to MEL and BNE to have 2-3 flights/day on each? JQ has a rather different offering to DJ. There is a corporate market in NTL. However, the present DJ flights don't operate at what one could call corporate-friendly times.

Why is it that DJ is maintaining such a meagre presence in NTL and, if anything, reducing its' presence? Why not expand the offerings - it seems to be a bizarre black hole in the network where the catchment have their own sub-par DJ offering. NTL has the potential to support a Lounge..yet only if DJ beefs up the schedule.

Would be curious to hear some thoughts...

 

[Boris spatsky]

JQ have a maintenance base there whereas DJ do mot so it makes sense that JQ would service it more to some extent.

It's a bit like Sunshine Coast - DJ reduced their frequency on that route too last year - now JQ seem to make a killing on it. Sad though, as i hate JQ!

 

[markis10]

NTL has a small problem called SYD, put simply airlines are unable to get good yields from there, same reason why Wollongong has none.

 

[Tuddy]

NTL has a small problem called SYD, put simply airlines are unable to get good yields from there, same reason why Wollongong has none.

But NTL is far enough away from SYD to have its own catchment - most I know on the Central Coast choose NTL over SYD due to pure ease of access. WOL is just that bit closer (its only about an hour from WOL to SYD - give or take) whereas NTL is a solid 2 hours. Couldn't it also be said that OOL should have an insignificant number of flights due to proximity to BNE? Sure - not the same tourist market - but a similarly sized catchment and population all the same.

Put simply, NTL and SYD are two different markets. Why DJ can go well in one and not another...that's another question.

Also boris, I'm not sure why havign a maintenance base somewhere would affect the size of an airline's operations. QLink has similarly sized operations to TMW where it has a maintenance base to what it has to many other regional ports. Although MCY is another puzzle I'm trying to work out too...

 

[markis10]

Put simply, NTL and SYD are two different markets. Why DJ can go well in one and not another...that's another question.

They are not two different markets, the fact is many people prefer to drive to Sydney and catch their plane there, rather than go from NTL to another gateway which has less connection options than Sydney. NTL has consistently shown it does not have the volume to support business beyond its current levels. The fact DJ have reduced frequencies, as has QF, pretty much answers you question, there is not the business market there that you perceive, lets look at that for a good holiday month versus a traditional business month:

Vacation Time:

[TABLE="width: 793"]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]REVENUE[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]TOTAL [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]REV[/TD]
[TD]A/C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PASSENGERS[/TD]
[TD]TOTAL RPKs[/TD]
[TD]AVAILABLE SEATS[/TD]
[TD]TOTAL ASKs[/TD]
[TD]PAX[/TD]
[TD]TRIPS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]City-Pair (a)[/TD]
[TD](b)[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]LF %[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD]Brisbane - Newcastle[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48 849[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29 993 286[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 62 305[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38 255 270[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]78.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 489[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]28[/TD]
[TD]Melbourne - Newcastle[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38 923[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32 539 628[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 52 371[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43 782 156[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]74.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 301[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 846"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]TOP COMPETITIVE ROUTES[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]August 2011[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]REVENUE[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]TOTAL [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]REV[/TD]
[TD]A/C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PASSENGERS[/TD]
[TD]TOTAL RPKs[/TD]
[TD]AVAILABLE SEATS[/TD]
[TD]TOTAL ASKs[/TD]
[TD]PAX[/TD]
[TD]TRIPS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]City-Pair (a)[/TD]
[TD](b)[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]LF %[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD]Brisbane - Newcastle[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50 048[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30 729 472[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 61 025[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37 469 350[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]82.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 499[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]26[/TD]
[TD]Melbourne - Newcastle[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]35 348[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29 550 928[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 47 739[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39 909 804[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]74.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 276[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Between 10000 and 14000 seats going empty each month on both routes!

 

[Tuddy]

They are not two different markets, the fact is many people prefer to drive to Sydney and catch their plane there, rather than go from NTL to another gateway which has less connection options than Sydney. NTL has consistently shown it does not have the volume to support business beyond its current levels. The fact DJ have reduced frequencies, as has QF, pretty much answers you question, there is not the business market there that you perceive, lets look at that for a good holiday month versus a traditional business month:

Vacation Time:

[TABLE="width: 793"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]REVENUE[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TOTAL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]REV[/TD]
[TD]A/C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PASSENGERS[/TD]
[TD]TOTAL RPKs[/TD]
[TD]AVAILABLE SEATS[/TD]
[TD]TOTAL ASKs[/TD]
[TD]PAX[/TD]
[TD]TRIPS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]City-Pair (a)[/TD]
[TD](b)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]LF %[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD]Brisbane - Newcastle[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48 849[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29 993 286[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 62 305[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38 255 270[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]78.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 489[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]28[/TD]
[TD]Melbourne - Newcastle[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38 923[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32 539 628[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 52 371[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43 782 156[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]74.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 301[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 846"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]TOP COMPETITIVE ROUTES[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]August 2011[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]REVENUE[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TOTAL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]REV[/TD]
[TD]A/C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PASSENGERS[/TD]
[TD]TOTAL RPKs[/TD]
[TD]AVAILABLE SEATS[/TD]
[TD]TOTAL ASKs[/TD]
[TD]PAX[/TD]
[TD]TRIPS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]City-Pair (a)[/TD]
[TD](b)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]LF %[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD]Brisbane - Newcastle[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50 048[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30 729 472[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 61 025[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37 469 350[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]82.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 499[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]26[/TD]
[TD]Melbourne - Newcastle[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]35 348[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29 550 928[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 47 739[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39 909 804[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]74.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 276[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Between 10000 and 14000 seats going empty each month on both routes!

Not going to deny that the numbers don't look great. Yet looking at the load factors - they seem reasonably healthy hovering around the 80% mark for BNE...MEL is in the slightly less healthy mid 70% range.

I'm intrigued by your point which says that "more choose to drive to Sydney and fly from there rather than fly via another gateway" - first up I'm curious to know where you got this idea from. Secondly, for international flights, I can understand why this might occur. One doesn't need another transfer and hour flight added onto a 20 hour marathon from Europe. Furthermore, the loads appear to be better to BNE in the traditional business month you provided than in the vacation month - no business market you say?

Given QF have palmed off NTL to JQ - and DJ is supposedly (yes I know there are threads that argue this) a middle of the road airline providing to both the leisure and business markets - is there not a greater market for DJ than what is currently being penetrated?

 

[markis10]

Thats the problem, the loads only hit 80% in the holiday season, and even then its poor by comparison to other routes where the airline can add capacity with the first NTL flight coming in at 28 of the top 50. If you NTL based and need to get to BNE or MEL its a no brainer, if you need to go anywhere else, I would suggest you are driving to Sydney in most cases.

I'm intrigued by your point which says that "more choose to drive to Sydney and fly from there rather than fly via another gateway" - first up I'm curious to know where you got this idea from. Secondly, for international flights, I can understand why this might occur. One doesn't need another transfer and hour flight added onto a 20 hour marathon from Europe. Furthermore, the loads appear to be better to BNE in the traditional business month you provided than in the vacation month - no business market you say?

Most of the Novacastrians I know do exactly that, and those that dont drive keep Aeropelican in Business as they have been doing for 40 years or so, even when they were closer to Sydney at Belmont. Those leisure figures are from February which has many diverts which does skew figures, however with a best figure of 82% load, NTL is not getting more flights soon, and it justifies the closure of the NTL Qantas Club many years ago. Over the past 10 NTL trips I have done, the cabin has had three business people on board, 20 or so FIFO and the rest families, and this is late afternoon with DJ on a weekday.

 

[Tuddy]

Thats the problem, the loads only hit 80% in the holiday season, and even then its poor by comparison to other routes where the airline can add capacity with the first NTL flight coming in at 28 of the top 50. If you NTL based and need to get to BNE or MEL its a no brainer, if you need to go anywhere else, I would suggest you are driving to Sydney in most cases.

Have a look at the stats again..it hits 80% in business season for BNE. For places easy to connect to out of BNE or MEL (read Queensland, Tassie, ADL, even PER) - it's still feasible to fly out of NTL..and I know of many who do just that. It beats the stress and cost of driving down to SYD and leaving the car there.

BNE-NTL (24th busiest) is around the same mark as BNE-ROK (21st busiest) and busier than PER-PHE (26th busiest). Looking at the stats further, the month of Feb 2012 saw loads on the BNE-NTL route hit 85.9%. Now let's look at the makeup of flights on these similarly sized markets - Virgin has a number of jet flights, as does Qantas. Now sure, they are different markets. But looking at the size of them, there is surely a business market enough to sustain more flights from DJ.

 

[markis10]

BNE-NTL (24th busiest) is around the same mark as BNE-ROK (21st busiest) and busier than PER-PHE (26th busiest). Looking at the stats further, the month of Feb 2012 saw loads on the BNE-NTL route hit 85.9%. Now let's look at the makeup of flights on these similarly sized markets - Virgin has a number of jet flights, as does Qantas. Now sure, they are different markets. But looking at the size of them, there is surely a business market enough to sustain more flights from DJ.

Are you forgetting the operators to NTL and their setup, 1050 seats for a leisure airline versus 350 for DJ each day and you still think there is an untapped business market, when DJ went from 738s to E190s and now F100s on the route? NTL has had business airlines, Business facilities and other routes in the past and they have failed, why make the same mistake twice - only a fool does that :shock:.

 

[Tuddy]

Are you forgetting the operators to NTL and their setup, 1050 seats for a leisure airline versus 350 for DJ each day and you still think there is an untapped business market, when DJ went from 738s to E190s and now F100s on the route? NTL has had business airlines, Business facilities and other routes in the past and they have failed, why make the same mistake twice - only a fool does that :shock:.

Markets change markis10...markets change. 10 years ago, a business lounge wouldn't have worked in MKY either - nor OOL. And yet we now have DJ open lounges in both. The change from E190s to F100s isn't significant in terms of capacity change (in fact it adds a few seats). I could similarly analyse OOL as a similar, yet larger market. JQ is the dominating airline with primariyl leisure travellers, and yet DJ is able to have a substantial offering and even justify a Lounge opening. You're also forgetting the further 150 seats QF have into and out of NTL every day - the use of the smaller aircraft is so as not to cannibalise the JQ operations..yet QF maintain their offering such that they meet business needs. DJ needn't be offering multiple 738s/day all over the place..but how about an additional E190/F100 or two/day to BNE and the removal of the mid-afternoon MEL 738 flight to be replaced by a morning and evening E190? This would then cater for both the business and leisure markets. The nature of the DJ beast is that it caters for both the leisure and business markets. It can still compete against JQ for leisure, whilst also competing against QF and providing its' own points of difference.

 

[markis10]

Markets change markis10...markets change. 10 years ago, a business lounge wouldn't have worked in MKY either - nor OOL.

LOL 10 years ago both had business lounges! And things do change, but not necessarily in NTL where there has been no significant growth in passenger numbers since 2008, indicating the market is stable.

 

[Tuddy]

LOL 10 years ago both had business lounges! And things do change, but not necessarily in NTL where there has been no significant growth in passenger numbers since 2008, indicating the market is stable.

10 years ago OOL had a Qantas Club. Then QF bailed out of OOL because the market wasn't condusive to it as an airline. JQ then entered and after a few years added its own interpretation of a lounge. 10 years ago MKY had mainline QF services. And a rather small Qantas Club - now we see a much larger Qantas Club and a DJ Lounge. The markets have changed. No change in numbers - what's to say DJ can't get existing passengers off other airlines? Or merely retime its' flights to be more business friendly (my suggestion scrapping the 738 in favour of 2 E190s would only markedly increase the number of seats, whilst providing a more convenient schedule)? What's to say an earlier morning additional BNE E190 flight wouldn't get passengers that currently use JQ or QF? Crazier things have happened.

Why must we stick to the status quo? Wasn't DJ the airline that entered the Australian market to shake things up and change the perception of different (notably regional) markets?

 

[straitman]

10 years ago OOL had a Qantas Club. Then QF bailed out of OOL because the market wasn't condusive to it as an airline. JQ then entered and after a few years added its own interpretation of a lounge. 10 years ago MKY had mainline QF services. And a rather small Qantas Club - now we see a much larger Qantas Club and a DJ Lounge. The markets have changed. No change in numbers - what's to say DJ can't get existing passengers off other airlines? Or merely retime its' flights to be more business friendly (my suggestion scrapping the 738 in favour of 2 E190s would only markedly increase the number of seats, whilst providing a more convenient schedule)? What's to say an earlier morning additional BNE E190 flight wouldn't get passengers that currently use JQ or QF? Crazier things have happened.

Why must we stick to the status quo? Wasn't DJ the airline that entered the Australian market to shake things up and change the perception of different (notably regional) markets?

I'm sure DJ have done the sums and worked out what they believe is the best option with the resources that they currently have. Who knows but it is possible that extra NTL flights are on the horizon when they have more capacity.

No matter which way they do it there will be some people happy and others unhappy.

 

[Pablo]

Over the past 10 NTL trips I have done, the cabin has had three business people on board, 20 or so FIFO and the rest families, and this is late afternoon with DJ on a weekday.

Thats the problem. If you are NTL based DJ have no suitable flights if you want o do BNE or MEL for the day. Only options are J*

I wish DJ had more flights - cause it might increase the reali ability of J* to MEL which they often cancel or reschedule

 

[Simo]

I have flown in and out of NTL once..

I had to go to somewhere in SYD and it was easier to get from NTL to where we had to go than SYD.

It was also half the price of flying into SYD.

No lounge's though.

 

[muppet]

I don't think it's just about the economics of NTL.
It's also the opportunity cost. DJ have been adding capacity constantly on the triangle where they're seeking the high yield fares - why serve NTL really well when adding capacity to MEL/SYD makes more money?

 

[Princess Fiona]

Hi Tuddy, I'm totally on the same page as you although I have no understanding of the economics.
As Markis10 correctly states many business trips start with an OT flight to SYD followed by a connection.
If going international I nearly always leave from SYD with the occasional rtn to MEL/BNE and a connection to NTL
I would love VA to increase their presence here and as it is I already try hard to use them over JQ whenever possible.
I'll keep using them just now with my fingers crossed for better schedules

 

[Simo]

Hi Tuddy, I'm totally on the same page as you although I have no understanding of the economics.
As Markis10 correctly states many business trips start with an OT flight to SYD followed by a connection.
If going international I nearly always leave from SYD with the occasional rtn to MEL/BNE and a connection to NTL
I would love VA to increase their presence here and as it is I already try hard to use them over JQ whenever possible.
I'll keep using them just now with my fingers crossed for better schedules

What is the public transport like between NTL and SYD

 

[straitman]

What is the public transport like between NTL and SYD

The rail service is not bad. :shock: :mrgreen:

 

[Princess Fiona]

What is the public transport like between NTL and SYD

Response not capable of being posted on a public forum
ie. it's sh!te
The train fasted time recorded was that of the Newcastle Flyer on the 28th June 1964