Has Virgin Australia Had Its Goldilocks Moment?

Virgin Blue Boeing 737-800 in original red livery
Virgin Australia began its life as Virgin Blue. 22 years later, its business model now appears to be just right. Photo: Adobe Stock.

In the seven years leading up to the pandemic, Virgin Australia never once made an annual profit. Already in a weak financial position, it didn’t take long after COVID-19 hit for Australia’s second-largest airline to enter voluntary administration.

Virgin Australia had been a good airline that was popular with passengers, but for too long was not a good business.

The airline began its life in August 2000 as Virgin Blue, flying a couple of Boeing 737s between Brisbane and Sydney. It was a fun low-cost carrier that went on to massively disrupt the Australian aviation market with its low fares and customer focus.

Not content with the budget airline’s ability to compete head-on with Qantas, then-CEO John Borghetti rebranded the airline in 2011 as Virgin Australia. He attempted to convert it into a full-service carrier and in many ways succeeded. Unfortunately, history shows us that Borghetti failed to create a sustainable business that would make money over the long term.

The “original” Virgin Australia of last decade did certainly do some things well. For example, the long-haul flying to Los Angeles, mainline domestic operations (particularly on the “golden triangle” between Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane) and the Velocity Frequent Flyer program made money.

The airline was great for the Australian flying public, too, as it brought serious competition into the market. Its excellent lie-flat “the business” product on the Airbus A330s and Boeing 777s, for example, also forced Qantas to introduce lie-flat beds on its domestic Airbus A330 aircraft.

Virgin Australia "the business"
Virgin Australia had an excellent Business Class product on its wide-body aircraft. Photo: Virgin Australia.

But that airline did not meet the needs of all stakeholders. The airline had a complex ownership structure and its shareholders (mostly foreign airlines) had competing interests.

Ultimately, none of those shareholder airlines – nor members of the Australian public who had purchased Virgin shares on the stock market – made a return on their investments due to the airline collapsing into voluntary administration in 2020.

Virgin Australia is now in its third phase

Virgin Australia has since restructured its business, emerging from voluntary administration in November 2020. Its new owner, US private equity firm Bain Capital, has repositioned the airline as a mid-market carrier that provides “value” to customers – rather than being full-service for the sake of it.

Virgin no longer offers included checked baggage on all fare types, nor any free food in Economy Class. But the airline still offers Business Class (which is now arguably very good value) and airport lounges – albeit around half as many as before.

Some commentators, including myself, were initially skeptical of Virgin’s strategy of being in the middle between Qantas and Jetstar. Many airlines have attempted the “hybrid” strategy of being all things to all people. Many have failed as they were squeezed by the full-service and low-cost competitors on either side, which took away customers on both ends of the market.

But Virgin seems to have proven me wrong.

Virgin has found a good middle-ground

By all accounts, Virgin Australia seems to be in a pretty good place right now.

As it’s no longer a publicly listed company, it’s impossible to know exactly how profitable the airline is at the moment. But the CEO publicly stated last month that the airline has returned to profitability and is now on solid financial ground. The company may even be in a good enough position to float on the ASX next year.

Anecdotally, many of Virgin’s flights have also been full lately. Load factors alone are not necessarily an indicator of profit as fares could have been sold below cost, but strong ticket sales certainly helps!

With Virgin now making money again, the owners ought to be happy. But they aren’t the only stakeholders benefiting from Virgin’s revival.

A healthy Virgin Australia is good for the airline’s supply chain, the tourism industry, Australia’s economy and of course the airline’s workforce. In fact, the airline has been on a hiring spree recently. Customers also seem reasonably happy with Virgin’s service, on-board wifi will be back soon and the airline has new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft on the way.

Some people did unfortunately get screwed over by the voluntary administration. Apart from the former shareholders, and perhaps Rex (which reportedly banked on Virgin’s collapse), some people have also lost air service as Virgin Australia has scaled back its regional and international networks. Some former customers have also been left with Future Flight credits they can’t use because they live in other countries that Virgin no longer flies to.

With a fleet now consisting exclusively of Boeing 737s and Airbus A320s, Virgin no longer has suitable aircraft to operate some of the routes it used to fly (like Sydney-Los Angeles or Sydney-Tamworth). The loss of “the business” is also disappointing for frequent flyers.

But Virgin’s leased Airbus A330s and the ATR72s of its regional division were arguably too expensive to operate profitably. Many of the routes that Virgin has abandoned, such as Brisbane-Port Moresby, Sydney-Tonga, Brisbane-Dunedin or Auckland-Rarotonga, would have been barely making money before the pandemic anyway.

Virgin won’t be flying to Los Angeles again any time soon using its own aircraft, but it has partnered with United Airlines and Air Canada to offer good connectivity into North America. Meanwhile, it is now slowly rebuilding other parts of its international network.

Following the relaunch of flights to Fiji and Bali, Virgin Australia yesterday resumed flights to New Zealand for the first time since 2020. At this stage, Queenstown will be the only destination in New Zealand served with direct flights from Australia. Virgin has not announced any intention of resuming flights to Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch or Dunedin. But the return of Queenstown flights is a step in the right direction.

Virgin Australia 737 lands in Queenstown, New Zealand
The first Virgin Australia flight to Queenstown since COVID-19 landed on 2 November 2022. Photo: Virgin Australia.

Next month, Virgin will launch direct Adelaide-Bali flights. Next March it will also launch a Gold Coast-Bali route and resume services to Port Vila and Apia. The airline will likely need to launch flights to Tokyo by the end of March 2023 as well if it wants to retain its lucrative Haneda Airport slot.

Velocity Frequent Flyer has also become a lot more attractive in recent times. Partner airline redemptions were blocked during the pandemic, but Velocity has now reinstated most of these (excluding Singapore Airlines First Class redemptions). The program has also added new partners including Qatar Airways and reinstated the option to convert points into Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer miles. Velocity reward seat availability is also now considerably better on key routes than Qantas award availability.

Some might say that Virgin has been assisted this year by Qantas’ customer service woes. But it is also doing plenty to attract customers in its own right.

If Virgin Australia can maintain its current trajectory, and there isn’t another shock event like a pandemic or a huge recession in the near future, it should be well on track to float on the ASX next year. And it should remain a key part of the Australian aviation landscape for many years to come.

Virgin Australia recently launched a new logo and a flashy new marketing campaign. There are also rumours of a new livery coming to mark Virgin’s transition into the third stage of its life cycle. Given the airline’s remarkable turnaround, it seems like a good time for this.

Virgin Australia Wonderful Flying campaign image
Virgin Australia’s new “wonderful flying” advertising campaign launched in October 2022. Photo: Virgin Australia.

If Virgin Blue wasn’t quite right, and the original version of Virgin Australia wasn’t profitable, the third iteration may be just right. Goldilocks would be happy.

 

You can leave a comment or discuss this topic on the Australian Frequent Flyer forum.

The editor of Australian Frequent Flyer, Matt's passion for travel has taken him to over 90 countries… with the help of frequent flyer points, of course!
Matt's favourite destinations (so far) are Germany, Brazil & Kazakhstan. His interests include economics, aviation & foreign languages, and he has a soft spot for good food and red wine.

You can connect with Matt by posting on the Australian Frequent Flyer community forum and tagging @AFF Editor.
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I agree the virgin is currently a very good option especially for short haul flights. Their business is comfortable and the service is very good; I haven’t tried economy yet. Lack of business lounges seems to be a negative.

I hope they don’t float any time soon because that will mean a plumping up of the business from the financial perspective, which usually means a deterioration of experience for customers.

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I've been impressed with Virgin on the 8 sectors I've taken with them this year. All punctual and without issue, plus the lounges have been pleasant and uncrowded. Compared with the Red Roo who have managed 6 delays in a row and a misplaced suitcase for good measure. And the QP at SYD last night was as close to a zoo as I've ever seen. A few uncaged lions wouldn't have been detrimental to the vibe.

Thankfully my next few trips are on VA (writing this as a QF LTG and long time QF fanboi).

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Another one who is impressed with Virgin, they don't need to do too much more right accept start flying to Auckland, and if Japan comes off good but its not a deal breaker for me.
I don't need wifi on a plane I'm happy to disconnect for a few hours and watch a video or listen to some music without thinking I should check emails, I can switch off from the outside world.

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Virgin did make a profit before Bain- they just offshored the money to avoid tax. I have flow them a lot recently and the canceled flight ( for "operational reasons" ) notifications 30 minutes before you leave home that are confusing and with no call center open at that time. That and the overseas call center not understanding = want I perceive a lack of respect for their platinum clients- AND they just don't get it. Can I have an airline that does get it, please?

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I agree the virgin is currently a very good option especially for short haul flights. Their business is comfortable and the service is very good; I haven’t tried economy yet. Lack of business lounges seems to be a negative.

I hope they don’t float any time soon because that will mean a plumping up of the business from the financial perspective, which usually means a deterioration of experience for customers.

I’d expect Bain to step back next year and sell off 40-50%.
They are doing a lot right and although I have to use QF for work I use VA for 95% of my domestic leisure travel all in J and they offer a much better product IMO.
My main gripe is the lounge situation especially for International and it’s my belief that you shouldn’t start a route until you have those bases covered so at present places like Fiji, Bali and NZ are off limits to me with VA. Greater visibility also needs to be in place for the all Y fleet and I hate the idea of floating them around the system and being “pot luck” when you strike one. I will be absolutely filthy if I booked J only to find one of those pieces of junk replacing it.
I’m loving the new partnerships and hopefully all issues are ironed out soon and done further announcements are in the pipeline

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We probably have to wait and see what Rex will do, FF system wise.
They are linked now to DL, they might join ST.
Who knows.
But if VA did more wow factors, maybe it could do/work wonders.
For now, I put half of my flying with VA and half with the Red Roo.
No more VGW is a real downside, now the only good thing about VFF is FB,
No 7elevens in South Aust also makes it harder to earn VFF on the ground, of course that is no fault of VA/VFF.
To sum up, they are getting a bit dim in my POV, flying wise.

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There is also EK joining up with VA's partner UA (who in turn has a partnership with QF). Whilst QF's Oneworld stablemate has QR has a partnership with VA. This leaves EY as the odd one out with a reduced partnership with VA, which is just.. there.

It also opens the door for EY to also join as a REX partner if they feel they need another Australian partner to compliment their now reduced secondary partnership with VA.

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There is also EK joining up with VA's partner UA (who in turn has a partnership with QF). Whilst QF's Oneworld stablemate has QR has a partnership with VA. This leaves EY as the odd one out with a reduced partnership with VA, which is just.. there.

It also opens the door for EY to also join as a REX partner if they feel they need another Australian partner to compliment their now reduced secondary partnership with VA.

May have been a coincidence but on one of my most recent EY flights evidently there were a few VA FF’s onboard and I know there were at least 4 VA Plats in J (myself, Mrs Jase and another couple) and with the onboard announcement they said “Welcome onboard to our EY Guest members plus other partners especially VA FF’s”
Then as the champagne was being offered the CSM introduced himself and said “Welcome Mr Jase it’s always good to see our VA Plats”. He did the same to Mrs Jase and the other couple aswell. I hadn’t seen that much attention to detail from them in the dozens of previous flights with EY and it seemed like a concerted effort by them. I’m thinking it may have just been luck (the next flight there were no announcements) but it made us feel welcomed and as always it was a great flight. I’d hate to lose them as VA partners.

You also have EK now entering into a partnership with AC (another VA partner) and EK and AC are setting up reciprocal FF benefits which is another interesting twist

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Based on my needs, I consider VA a full-service airline. Plus they are generally cheaper and have better service standards than QF. Internationally, they have excellent coverage via their alliances, particularly SQ which I like. So all good for me.

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As a switcheroo gold, I'm still on the fence. My VA experience today was pretty pedestrian. The SYD premium checkin/bagdrop queue moved very slowly with only one counter open, staffed by someone who really didn't exude "premium" vibes. (I missed being able to roll my bag with QTag coasters straight to the belt). T2 is a nightmare of course and that's largely beyond VA's control. Though the experience could be slightly improved if they were willing to stump up cash for a premium security lane or two seeing as direct lounge entry is only open a couple of hours early in the morning after very recently reopening. The lounge felt cramped, even though it wasn't totally packed. (Horrid kids and their oblivious parents who took up way more space than necessary nearby didn't help - not VA's fault obviously and I should have just moved). Kudos for much better food around midday than the QP however. Premium boarding kind of worked which we know is more than can be said for QF. On board service was young and unpolished in Y as has been my overall impression of VA cabin crew in Y over the years - ranging from enthusiastic to robotic. Premium tagged bags were the very last to appear on the belt in BNK.

All this today was a bit of a contrast to a pretty decent experience last week. So I'll persist to earn my switcheroo status match 80SCs but right now it's a coin toss as to whether I'll commit to jumping ship. If I was predominantly a J flyer domestically, I'd have far less hesitation. VA J beats QF 8 times out of 10 I'd say. But as someone who earns my mid-tier status primarily via golden triangle milk runs on cheap fares, things like terminal experience take on a bit more importance. VA hasn't quite wooed me with Goldilocks credentials yet, but I'm much more open minded than I was before QF started dropping the ball so much lately.

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