What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[Foreigner]

The pound is being hit again in the financial markets following discussions about Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/03/uk-stocks-rally-as-brexit-fears-fade

Against the AUD it hit a low of 59.855 cents.

 

[Flashback]

The pound is being hit again in the financial markets following discussions about Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/03/uk-stocks-rally-as-brexit-fears-fade

Against the AUD it hit a low of 59.855 cents.

Yep, it sure has. Fortunately at the end of my holidays so I can forget about it for a while

 

[Cossie]

The pound is being hit again in the financial markets following discussions about Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/03/uk-stocks-rally-as-brexit-fears-fade

Against the AUD it hit a low of 59.855 cents.

Not good for the locals, but good for us in a couple of weeks time. When I first went to the UK, it was about $3 to the pound, (mid seventies).

 

[serfty]

Not good for the locals, but good for us in a couple of weeks time. When I first went to the UK, it was about $3 to the pound, (mid seventies).

I remember the later nineties - in London I saw a KFC store advertising a 2pc pack for £1.99 - it would have cost about $9.20!!! :shock:

 

[Doctore1003]

The AUD/USD looks like it *really* wants to break out above 77. Today's RBA announcement (the first by the new Governor, Lowe) could provide the trigger. Lowe made some comments recently about how there is too much reliance on monetary policy in today's world. This can be interpreted as less likely to lead to more interest rate cuts.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Provided he can sustain the pressure from Barnaby and fellow Country Party members - the coughies will only ever grin if it rains only when they want it to and the sun shines only when they want it to - and if the AUD = USD0.50!

 

[JohnK]

The AUD/USD looks like it *really* wants to break out above 77.

And just like that back below .76 and pushing to get below 0.75 again. Makes no sense.

 

[grounded]

Provided he can sustain the pressure from Barnaby and fellow Country Party members - the coughies will only ever grin if it rains only when they want it to and the sun shines only when they want it to - and if the AUD = USD0.50!

Central bankers consider themselves removed and somewhat more financially and economically elevated over the elected mob in Canberra.

They'll get a memo about Barnaby's comments and chuckle at it over morning tea.

 

[TheRealTMA]

And just like that back below .76 and pushing to get below 0.75 again. Makes no sense.

Yes it is related to when my OS travel bills arrive...

 

[cove]

I bought at .7610 if you were wondering how come the currency immediately ran up to 0.77. It was me putting a floor under the currency. Our work office got it at 0.77 on an overnight order so that rubbed it in.

 

[Foreigner]

The upward momentum seems to have slipped. Payroll stats in the US tonight, our time, may move the dollar either way.

I've moved 250k into aud so far this short week. Hoping for a bit more, today or Monday.

 

[marki]

Anybody see what happened to the pound An extraordinary 10 per cent flash crash by the British pound has left currency traders baffled about its cause.

At 10:07am (AEST) the pound suddenly crashed from $US1.26 against the US dollar to a fresh 30-year low below $US1.14 in a matter of seconds.

Over the next 10 minutes the pound regained much of the loss to be trading down a little over 1 per cent lower in early Asian trade.

It's currently around 61.14 pence to 1 AUD

 

[Foreigner]

You can bet some currency traders would have made lots of profit, at someone else's loss

 

[Flashback]

Yep, we've lost about 7c against the USD since Monday alone. Fortunately it waited till I got back from holidays!

 

[cove]

Flashback a crash in the pound has always been possible. Don't know about this trading mayhem in that flash crash but someone is trying to make some fast money. It may have been a robot with artificial intelligence but more likely a human at a trading desk.

 

[Flashback]

Flashback a crash in the pound has always been possible. Don't know about this trading mayhem in that flash crash but someone is trying to make some fast money. It may have been a robot with artificial intelligence but more likely a human at a trading desk.

Are you trying to insinuate I had something to do with it? (bolding mine) :mrgreen:

 

[cove]

Glad you got back before the slump Flashback. Have wondered when the same thing will happen to the $AUD.

 

[whatmeworry]

Anybody see what happened to the pound An extraordinary 10 per cent flash crash by the British pound has left currency traders baffled about its cause.

At 10:07am (AEST) the pound suddenly crashed from $US1.26 against the US dollar to a fresh 30-year low below $US1.14 in a matter of seconds.

Over the next 10 minutes the pound regained much of the loss to be trading down a little over 1 per cent lower in early Asian trade.

It's currently around 61.14 pence to 1 AUD

Looks like someone added an extra zero to a sell order.

 

[Foreigner]

Is the pound heading towards parity with USD?

 

[Feech La Manna]

Is the pound heading towards parity with USD?

Unlikely, but never rule anything out particularly in momentum driven forex markets.

UK has a chronic current account deficit, so to balance out the country spending more on imports than it exports UK historically has had to sell debt and/or assets.

The appetite for UK debt and assets will obviously diminish given the Brexit related regulatory & political uncertainty so the currency naturally falls due to less demand.This will be partically offset when/if UK reduces imports. The primary driver for this weeks decline is that the "market" realised that Brexit is for real and thus increased regulatory/political uncertainty is now upon us. Large banks/investors up until this week didn't really think anything would change, as historically UK governments have always done whats best for the finance sector and that means remaining in the single market. Large banks/investors now know times have changed.

At some point, maybe now, investors will think the cheapness of the GBP and UK based debt/assets offsets the uncertainty. Nobody knows for sure what that level would be.

Personally, as a dual AU/UK citizen living in London, if the GBP falls anywhere near parity with USD, or AUD hits 0.70 to the Pound then I'll be backing the truck up and buying more GBP denominated assets.

Next 12 months could be a great time for Australians to pick up a nice pied a terre in London!