There are lot of Australian pilots overseas flying for various airlines. Some would still be on the LWOP leave without pay while Qantas was nearly on its knees. However flying the regionals might not appeal to many because they are already flying with the big boys in the big jets and a return would depend on many factors apart from just pay.
People on LWOP have protected positions for their return. They'll come back to the position they left. If that position has disappeared in the meantime (i.e. the 767), they'll be able to bid as usual for a position on any of the other fleets.
The regionals have zero appeal to anyone flying overseas. Nobody flying a 777 for EK is going to come back and fly a Dash 8, no matter what seat they're in.
One factor against QFLink is that seniority in Link does not necessarily transfer to mainline and the mainline can recruit someone directly into mainline ignoring the ones currently flying Q400. And perversely the shortage in Link will prevent anyone moving from Link to mainline.
It doesn't even apply to other parts of QLink.
For lots of reasons, the various airline groups have been kept separate. JQ in particular has had enormous growth, and with few exceptions, all mainline pilots were locked out of it. Very much an industrial tactic. Divide and conquer. Or perhaps the Chinese famine theory. In any event, industrial hard ball has the effect of making the entire industry unattractive. And when that's the only game you know how to play, the problem is exacerbated.
If you want to fly for mainline, join mainline. Same for JQ, etc. If you join one to avoid being an SO, you really can't expect to jump the queue over those who have done their time.
Actually that’s a benefit because it allows the SO and FO to move up the ranks. There are lots of very senior plots in QF waiting as SO/FO who would be captains elsewhere who are just waiting. I would not be surprised that some will be FO until retirement. And while they are waiting they may just jump ship overseas to a better spot . An aviator recently said a captain’s retirement can allow the upward movement of 8? Pilots?
Some move overseas from mainline, not many. Smaller airlines lose substantial numbers though.
There are only two types of FOs who retire from that position. Most are simply not able to make the jump to command. Others don't want to move to a less attractive life style (and probably less money, i.e. 747 FO to 737 Command)...but by the time they could take the slot on the higher aircraft, their personal window for doing the training has expired. Very few would not have had the opportunity, unless they happened to join much older than usual.
As for the 7-8 movements that one senior captain's retirement can generate...there will only be one promotion to command, and one to FO. And perhaps one SO recruited. All of the other movements come from same rank replacements across the fleets. If we only had one type, that wouldn't happen.
On average, your time in any seat will be proportional to the number of people in each rank. If we have an airline with one third each of Captains, FOs and SOs, then the AVERAGE career will involve the same proportion of time in each seat. So, if your career is going to be 36 years, that's 12 as an SO, 12 as an FO, and 12 as a Captain. Based on joining at 28, and retiring at 64....that means SO to FO at 40, and command training at 52. Anyone who expects rapid rises as a matter of course is mistaken.
While it’s looking up for pilots trying to get in now, as the airline industry is so fickle it would not take long for things to go sour.
Yes, but what's the alternative?
One part of an alternative course of action is to simply lose the industrial games that have become so common. They might win for a while, but they drive anger and frustration, and make the entire industry unattractive. That doesn't mean bending over for each whim a pilot group might have, but I suspect far more can be achieved when there is an element of trust. Once you achieve the same level of trust and belief as the average politician or car salesman, establishing any form of bridgehead is unlikely.
The management methods I learnt and saw in the military were far more cooperative than what I've seen elsewhere.
The industry is cyclic, but there are signs that this particular pilot shortage is anything but. The traditional sources of pilots have dried up, the profession has been made much less attractive, and a retirement bomb (that everyone knew about) is about to explode.
Simple solution...lower the standards until you get the numbers. This is already in play in many places. If you consider the occasional hull loss to be acceptable, then it might be an option.
