MEL-OOL 14 Daily 🧐

[Saab34]

I was booking a flight for this coming week, and was shocked to see MEL-OOL and even SYD-OOL 14 flights daily. They are the biggest operator on each route.

I assume trying to drive out Rex.

 

[mitchd]

Yep have noticed this and occasionally chose to fly out of OOL rather than BNE, get $99 Choice fares for OOL-MEL. Good for when I’m booking last minute and the fares from BNE are never that cheap at a week’s notice.

I also thought with so many daily flights the wife and I would at least get an empty seat next to us and have a bit more breathing room, but nope every time we’ve done this the flights been completely full! Even on random weekdays…

 

[AIRwin]

I was booking a flight for this coming week, and was shocked to see MEL-OOL and even SYD-OOL 14 flights daily. They are the biggest operator on each route.

I assume trying to drive out Rex.

School holidays?

 

[Harrison_133]

School holidays?

Maybe, but this isn’t the first time they’ve got up to 14 flights a day on the route. Over the last 1-2 years, outside of border closures obviously, MEL-OOL has regularly had a very high frequency even outside of obvious peak periods like school holidays.

It seems to be a very strong route for VA. Some flights sell out weeks in advance. Not long ago I had a OOL-MEL sector I wanted to change to a later flight. Rang the platinum line 3-4 weeks before travel but they couldn’t move me even with advance notice because all the Y seats had been sold on the afternoon/evening flights – that was with an hourly frequency, and it wasn’t even a long weekend or holiday period.

 

[HS-TQE]

On a similar note on the Sunshine Coast
VA is up to 4x daily on SYD-MCY and 5 daily on MEL-MCY for this holiday period.
QF up to 2.5x daily on SYD-MCY (all mainline) and 3.5x daily on MEL-MCY (2x mainline and 1.5 QF Link).
JQ are 2x daily on MEL-MCY and 3x daily on SYD-MCY

There are also the varied QFLink/Alliance/Pelican/etc to NTL, CBR, Emerald, etc plus JQ/VA to ADL and shortly the resumption of NZ's 3 weekly to AKL.

 

[Saab34]

Looks like Cairns to Melbourne 3 Daily also. Never seen it above 10 weekly at Virgin 1.0

Would also be the Tiger market also they would be trying to get hold off.

 

[Astro]

Just on MEL-OOL. Also worth mentioning these flights are littered with J fares @ $289
Could be a good way to collect a few status credits and get some sun at the same time.

Comparable Qantas J is at least $800 - for now.

 

[Inlander]

Just on MEL-OOL. Also worth mentioning these flights are littered with J fares @ $289
Could be a good way to collect a few status credits and get some sun at the same time.

Comparable Qantas J is at least $800 - for now.

Go before June 30th and get the status bonus to,

 

[jakeseven7]

My MEL-OOL return was cancelled and I was moved onto another flight so appears there is some ‘hopeful’ scheduling going on which will get then rationalised closer to the day (like all airlines are doing right now of course)

Being a leisure route mostly I’m sure most people won’t see a 2 hour change in flight time a deal breaker either, especially if they are getting dirt cheap fares…

 

[Matty F]

Judging by the MEL departures board, they seem to be having no issue flying out 12 trips to OOL each day. A 'hopeful' 14 down to 12 in real terms seems like a pretty good run to me

Domestic and International Departures | Melbourne Airport

Domestic and International Flight Times. Live domestic and international flight information updated every 5 minutes. Melbourne Airport.

www.melbourneairport.com.au

 

[Harrison_133]

Judging by the MEL departures board, they seem to be having no issue flying out 12 trips to OOL each day. A 'hopeful' 14 down to 12 in real terms seems like a pretty good run to me

Domestic and International Departures | Melbourne Airport

Domestic and International Flight Times. Live domestic and international flight information updated every 5 minutes. Melbourne Airport.

www.melbourneairport.com.au

Each day tends to fluctuate based on demand, they’re not hitting 14 flights every day of the week. Friday and Sunday looks to be the days with 14 flights. As you say, 12 flights a day is still very good though.

I can’t really recall, was MEL-OOL frequency ever this high pre-covid? There’s basically a flight every hour. I don’t remember it being that frequent, but my memory is a bit fuzzy…

MEL-CNS/MCY definitely have more VA capacity than pre-covid.

 

[Saab34]

I recall MEL-OOL around 6-8 odd daily pre covid. I often would go for the 5pm OOL-MEL departure, and the one after that was about 8pm. Now, there is a 5/6/7/8pm flight.

MEL-MCY was only ever 1-2 daily
MEL-CNS 10 weekly during peak, once a day otherwise. Tiger was twice daily though.
SYD-CNS was 5/6 a day pre pandemic, looks like that is around 3/4 now, however that route is generally a shuttle for international pax to and from.

 

[Mattg]

I also thought with so many daily flights the wife and I would at least get an empty seat next to us and have a bit more breathing room, but nope every time we’ve done this the flights been completely full! Even on random weekdays…

Well if the flights are full, then clearly there is demand. So why not?

 

[jakeseven7]

Well if the flights are full, then clearly there is demand. So why not?

Demand at a price should always be the qualification. And the yields are questionable and buried from view with Bain now per media reports.

 

[Matty F]

per media reports

Source?

 

[jakeseven7]

Source?

Simple flying - they have heaps of good stories, just filter to our region and you will find them.

 

[Mattg]

Demand at a price should always be the qualification. And the yields are questionable and buried from view with Bain now per media reports.

I agree that we'll never really know whether these flights are truly profitable since VA no longer publishes public annual reports, etc.

But doing some "back of the envelope" calculations, it would cost the average airline around $81 to operate a seat on a 737-800 from MEL to OOL (calculated using The Cost of Operating a Commercial Flight). So if they are selling most seats at an average fare of around $99, and perhaps a few people also purchase food on board/extra bags/J/etc., VA is more than breaking even.

 

[lovestotravel]

Even MEL-MCY is up to 4 daily now which is great

 

[HS-TQE]

SimpleFlying is mostly authors using paywall articles and/or articles from even here, airliners and ET to write their articles. We know one of them regularly posts here on this forum.

Even MEL-MCY is up to 4 daily now which is great

Scheduled up to x5 daily on MEL-MCY, although likely 1 of the 5 may get cancelled on the day.

 

[jakeseven7]

SimpleFlying is mostly authors using paywall articles and/or articles from even here, airliners and ET to write their articles. We know one of them regularly posts here on this forum.

I think you’ve missed the point, but you can’t prove it either way - no one can since it’s black ops mode / closed shop until Virgin gets sold again, we won’t know until the books are open.

What is broadly accepted and quoted in multiple media sources is that Bain had to put in multiple capital injections which suggests that there is SOME continuing profitability issue - which may well be yield related (can’t be proven, just speculated) but it might be something else as well - personally I’m not sure what the drag could be given they don’t own much anymore anyway.

We need our AFF insider to pay a visit to this thread I’m even sure I have seen them physically reference them flying on this route so will be able to give some ‘personal’ insight! (And not get in trouble…. )