Airfares to US to drop?

[Forg]

Someone throws darts at a wall of numbers.

It’s not entirely unlike the financial markets … it’s all about what people think that other people think that people predict what other people will pay for something.

 

[justinbrett]

Hmmm this is weird. You'd think, given we seem to have come out relatively unscathed from Trumparifffest 2025, we'd have more takers in holding our currency.

AUD never does well in uncertainty. It’s fallen against all the major currencies - USD, EUR, GBP and JPY.

Ironically the fall of around 5% will make up for half the tariff, so we’re almost back to the starting point in terms of US trade.

 

[VPS]

I went through inbound US immigration at YYC last week, and it was noticeably quiet. I was asked if I was a drug runner and allowed to pass through.

You should’ve said my boss told me not to tell you what I was carrying

 

[TheRealTMA]

You should’ve said my boss told me not to tell you what I was carrying

Never declare the Tim tams or Vegemite!

 

[dajop]

AUD never does well in uncertainty. It’s fallen against all the major currencies - USD, EUR, GBP and JPY.

Ironically the fall of around 5% will make up for half the tariff, so we’re almost back to the starting point in terms of US trade.

Also with reports of 40-50% of super invested overseas it works out to be somewhat of a hedge against falls on overseas markets as well. Simplifying it but Wall St drops 7%, AUD drops 5% then Australian funds invested in Wall St only drop 2% in AUD terms.

 

[VPS]

Never declare the Tim tams or Vegemite!

Many years ago, one of the US customs guys asked me if I was carrying any Tim Tams

 

[p--and--t]

AUD never does well in uncertainty. It’s fallen against all the major currencies - USD, EUR, GBP and JPY.

Ironically the fall of around 5% will make up for half the tariff, so we’re almost back to the starting point in terms of US trade.

With 70% of exports mostly from digging holes in the ground going to one nation that has a rather fragile economy with fudged & manipulated official figures on its health, uncertainty is almost certain to be prolific.

 

[RSD]

With 70% of exports mostly from digging holes in the ground going to one nation that has a rather fragile economy with fudged & manipulated official figures on its health, uncertainty is almost certain to be prolific.

Especially as the story about whether he will or won't negotiate on tariffs changes by the hour, and everything else - and Canada & the EU haven't announced their retaliation yet.

 

[Sprucegoose]

AUD never does well in uncertainty. It’s fallen against all the major currencies - USD, EUR, GBP and JPY.

The AUD is primarily regarded as a speculative and commodity-driven currency.

Ironically the fall of around 5% will make up for half the tariff, so we’re almost back to the starting point in terms of US trade.

You may be right theoretically, but I would have thought most key exports would have been dominated by USD.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Especially as the story about whether he will or won't negotiate on tariffs changes by the hour, and everything else - and Canada & the EU haven't announced their retaliation yet.

Canada will retaliate; however, they are in the middle of what could well be a very historic election campaign, with an election on the 28th
April.

 

[justinbrett]

You may be right theoretically, but I would have thought most key exports would have been dominated by USD.

It’s a fundamental principle of international trade that a low local currency valuation helps exports. Many countries artificially lower their currency in order to make exports more competitive - Trump has accused many countries of doing exactly that.

 

[RSD]

It’s a fundamental principle of international trade that a low local currency valuation helps exports. Many countries artificially lower their currency in order to make exports more competitive - Trump has accused many countries of doing exactly that.

Yep - and with the tariffs increasing inflation in the U.S. which will lead to the U.S. Federal Reserve increasing interest rates - which in turn drives the U.S. dollar higher and works against his exports plans...

 

[SYD]

Yep - and with the tariffs increasing inflation in the U.S. which will lead to the U.S. Federal Reserve increasing interest rates - which in turn drives the U.S. dollar higher and works against his exports plans...

What could possibly go wrong…. Well, an influx of US tourism in Oz while we all look at staycations or Argentina.

 

[RSD]

What could possibly go wrong…. Well, an influx of US tourism refugees in Oz while we all look at staycations or Argentina.

Not forgetting the next step - higher interest rates caused by higher inflation caused by high tariffs mean less money for Americans to spend to buy things so the government's take from the tariffs goes down... I don't think that they have really thought this through beyond day 1.

 

[justinbrett]

Yep - and with the tariffs increasing inflation in the U.S. which will lead to the U.S. Federal Reserve increasing interest rates - which in turn drives the U.S. dollar higher and works against his exports plans...

Not necessarily, when interest rates go up in order to counter spiralling inflation they can actually cause a devaluation instead, it happened to ours quite a few times (although perhaps different because the AUD doesn’t go well with uncertainty). I think it’s more the difference between interest rates and inflation, if that’s a negative that doesn’t indicate good environment for investment.

 

[Forg]

Not forgetting the next step - higher interest rates caused by higher inflation caused by high tariffs mean less money for Americans to spend to buy things so the government's take from the tariffs goes down... I don't think that they have really thought this through beyond day 1.

The intentions of Trump himself are hard to tell, it's very possible he just has a bee in his bonnet about tariffs & so BANG everyone gets a tariff, he's volatile & doesn't do planning beyond tomorrow.
But the people running him definitely want to plunge the financial markets into chaos & drive them down, I've seen all sorts of theories on why they'd want that but don't know enough Financial Stuff to make any judgements on the most likely reasons.

 

[Quickstatus]

Chicago reportedly lost their 2016 Olympic bid because of how CBP treated the IOC officials at ORD when they visited the city for an inspection ahead of the vote.

Thats an excellent idea. Many cities have declined to host the OG over the years for very sound reasons. The most important is the wishes of the population.

How to kick an own goal!

Very few OG actually produce a net economic benefit. The only way to minimise economic losses is to use existing facilities. Montreal, Athens, Rio De J, Tokyo, Lake Placid, Nagano, Sochi should be sobering reminders

I was asked if I was a drug runner and allowed to pass through.

Miss QS was once asked by Canadian immigration if she was running away from home when she travelled to Canada via LAX by herself at age 14.
Luckily she had a letter to show immigration if they started to ask questions.

.....


Will be interesting to see the degree the RBA intervenes in the AUD exchange rate. The last time there was significant intervention was in the GFC of 2007. During that time it was a myth that the RBA defended the AUD - it was buying and selling AUD on the market to stabilise the market. The value of the AUD against other currencies per se is not the only factor that the RBA considers, but the liquidity of the AUD, market volatility and market onesidedness are others and likely more important.

Historically the AUD has appreciated against Asian currencies and depreciated against the G7 currencies. Rather than the relatively myopic AUD/USD pair the RBA actually compares the AUD against a much broader basket called the TWI. We can see that the USD is less than 10% of the TWI. What happens in the USA does not directly affect the AUD, but more importantly what happens with all the other currencies that AUD trades with - china being the big elephant in the room. TWI below numbers in %