Qantas' Impending Change to Tokyo Flight Schedule

[evanb]

For context, QF wanted a380 to replace their 747 ops to HND after the 747 retirement. They couldn't work out a way to cleanly do it as it involved HND lifting some restrictions and hence we're at 330s.

There's been discussion before about a380 into HND. But without changing the status quo on HND restrictions it boils down to:
Bad landing times (dumping 300+ pax at 11pm with a very tight window for public transport seems ill advised)
Red eye Late night departure (~1am or so)

The big difference is that when they first considered it they only had one slot pair compared to the three they have now. That said, Sydney is expected to run overnight in both directions which allows the scope for the A380 within Haneda's slots. The challenge will be the daytime parking which undermines utilisation and runs into the need to agree to a special arrangement with the airport. In 2019, the bigger problem was utilisation. That's less of a problem now given that the A380s are fully depreciated and they're not rushing to push fly them to the US.

 

[evanb]

We don't have enough demand to justify 3 HND slots AND an a380 to NRT.

Remember it's not just QF servicing this route. JAL and ANA are also flying. The full service "premium market" is pretty full. If anything we have a big need for more LCC to NRT. Loads of friends flying cheap on one stops via HKG, CAN or PVG.

They currently have 4x daily flights to Tokyo that ran an 85% load factor over the last 12 months. Also helps that outbound demand to Japan has exploded in the last few years. In 2024 Japan surpassed the US as the 3rd largest destination for Australians.:

Chart of the week #22: Where Australians traveled in 2024

Now that we’re well into 2025 we’re starting to get the final data updates completing the 2024 calendar year.

www.analyticflying.com

Chart of the Week #3: Where are Australians traveling?

The US's loss is Japan's gain!

www.analyticflying.com

 

[justinbrett]

The underlying article clearly states it's speculation so there's no revelation here. The point that the article makes is that there isn't any good reason to delay the switch other than an aircraft change. What alternative hypothesis is there to delay the switch any further?

I did said there was nothing wrong with that, just that many may not know that it's your X account you are posting screenshots of.

Everybody is welcome to float their own theories, even if they seem wild to some.

 

[markis10]

The underlying article

Err Blog.

The point that the article makes is that there isn't any good reason to delay the switch other than an aircraft change. What alternative hypothesis is there to delay the switch any further?

They don’t have the aircraft given the lack of engine spares and the Finnair wet lease uncertainties presently being experienced.

 

[elanshin]

They currently have 4x daily flights to Tokyo that ran an 85% load factor over the last 12 months. Also helps that outbound demand to Japan has exploded in the last few years. In 2024 Japan surpassed the US as the 3rd largest destination for Australians.:

Chart of the week #22: Where Australians traveled in 2024

Now that we’re well into 2025 we’re starting to get the final data updates completing the 2024 calendar year.

www.analyticflying.com

Chart of the Week #3: Where are Australians traveling?

The US's loss is Japan's gain!

www.analyticflying.com

I suspect forward numbers are softening. We've seen sub $1000 Return airfares on ALL 3 carriers for the first time post covid this year. JL even downsize beyond what they previously ran (789 > 777 > 788).

What the market needs isnt more premium carriers, its more LCC.

 

[evanb]

They don’t have the aircraft given the lack of engine spares and the Finnair wet lease uncertainties presently being experienced.

They don't need more aircraft for the HND ops. It's a simple switch of the existing MEL-NRT and BNE-NRT flights to HND (they're even using the same flight numbers). Unless they add back a SYD-NRT flight it needs even fewer aircraft.

 

[Himeno]

They might change the NRT-MEL/BNE flight numbers. They changed the numbers for the SYD flight when they first moved it to HND.
The flight numbers used for NRT prior to the SYD-HND move, and extra adhoc SYD-NRT flights since then, are now used for MEL-DFW.

 

[DC3]

What alternative hypothesis is there to delay the switch any further?