A380 versus B777 comparison (from an airline POV re ROI)

[straitman]

An interesting comparison between the A380 and the B777 in EK service on routes they both fly.

EK now operate both the B777 and the A380 to several places. It seems like the Whale has some use up to about 7hrs.

It is very comfortable to fly in and, if you fill all those extra premium seats, there is probably money to be made. On longer routes, the fuel burn just gets unacceptable.

Two routes flown by both aircraft on the same day, DXB - LHR; A380 - Trip Fuel, 84.2T, Available Payload, 74 tonnes, utilised 73 tonnes. B777 - Trip Fuel 54.3T, Payload Available 57T, utilised 57T.

So the A380 was roughly comparable - not as efficient but in the ballpark.

Now lets look at DXB – JFK; 


A380 - 

Trip Fuel 172.9T (I Chit you not!!) Available Payload 67T, utilised 52T.
B777 - Trip Fuel 106.8T, Available Payload 57T, Utilised 45T.
So, 65 Tonnes of gas extra to potentially haul an extra 10 tonne.

Which flight do you think would be more profitable?

Rumors around of pulling the A380 off long routes, cancellation of orders, and EK being a launch customer of the 777-X.

 

[casanovawa]

Be interesting to see what the figures would be for the B747-8 or would it only be marginally different to current 747 operations??

 

[Awesom Andy]

The A380 only makes sense if you can fill up the seats, otherwise, you would lose money very quickly. The early generation of 747 had the same issue - where the tri-jet models of competitors were relatively easier to become more profitable (or at least lose less money). In fact, Boeing considered a 3-engined 747 but the lack of suitable airflow due to the hump means it was not possible to have less than 4 engines.

The 748, if I'm correct, is better at carrying freight, and while the longer range operations is probably not very efficient, I think it would work well as a high-capacity medium-haul aircraft if seats can be filled (although I don't exactly have any numbers to prove my speculations).

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

Long haul flights are a bit like space launches. You end up carrying so much extra fuel that it becomes a quickly diminishing returns game.

I suppose the question is are the airlines better off have the long flights, or is there a case to be made for landing and refueling so that you don't carry as much fuel??

I'm assuming take offs burn a lot of fuel, partially made up from landing.

 

[markis10]

Given the poor order book to date for the A380 by comparison to the 747 across the first 9 years as a percentage of fleet size, things dont look that good for the A380 in comparison to the 777. With a net gain of 5 orders versus 200 this year alone, its pretty clear where things are heading, and history has not been favorable to aircraft who were mostly ordered by one main customer, with EK making up 38%, I am pretty sure the A380 fits into that category.

 

[The Rok]

I think over the next 10 years air travel is going to do a bit of a U turn that will all but kill the A380 and similar super jumbos.

As aircraft manufacturers start to build small and medium size aircraft that can do cost effective point to point travel more and more airlines will start going back to offering more and more routes, as opposed to the HUB flying we see now.

I think the Dreamliner in its smallest form might actually be the catalyst for this and it will be the Middle East and Asian airlines that will start off this trend.

I don't believe there is a future for a huge amount of A380's. There will always be some for the heavy load routes but thats it. Airports are getting bigger and bigger around the world. Adding more terminals, more runways and more incentives for airlines to fly there and I think the number of available landing/takeoff slots will increase globally over the next 10 years or so, moving airlines and their passengers away from the expensive and horrible hubs they have now .

 

[travelislife]

The big thing as well as a traveler is the frequency of flights. By running smaller more fuel efficient planes it is possible to provide much more frequency to the customer on routes. Such as CX having 4 flights a day to Sydney, they wouldn't be able to do this I would imagine if they ran A380s or 747s on the route.

 

[casanovawa]

At the end of the day it will as always get down to economics... Everyone raved about the A380 when it came out and all sorts of silly ideas were floated about casinos and bed etc etc... It seems that it is just a lot more plane (and so extra weight needing more fuel) for seemingly not a lot more passengers being carried and/or freight which is what pays for the whole thing... It seems many A380s are fitted out to not carry more than 500 passengers while many of the old 744s could carry 400 plus... The economics might come up better if they can fit more people in (600-700), although this will probably mean cutting down the premium seats to cram more ecnonomy seats in... If it doesn't matter what the seating configuration is, and the fuel burn and future increasing cost of fuel will always make the B777 and other planes more profitable, then yes it is in trouble... But there must be some routes around the world that if you get the distance and the passenger/freight numbers right it will suit it, its just whether enough of those routes (and demand on them) is enough for the A380 program to even break even after all the initial delays and cost over runs that were experienced.. You'd think also at some of the mega airports around the world they must eventually run out of space and public patience for more runways etc for heaps of small planes???

 

[D747]

Airports are getting bigger and bigger around the world. Adding more terminals, more runways and more incentives for airlines to fly there and I think the number of available landing/takeoff slots will increase globally over the next 10 years or so, moving airlines and their passengers away from the expensive and horrible hubs they have now .

Dear The Rok ,

On what do you base this information? In particular the growth of airports and their slot numbers?

 

[The Rok]

Geez, have you been living under a Rok?

Sydney airport expansion plan
Melbourne airport expansion plan
Perth airport expansion plan
Additional runway at Heathrow

To name but a few!

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

Boeings' belief for the 787 was that the future would be moving towards more point to point flights as hub and spoke was not how passengers liked flying.

i suppose it'll take another 10-15 years to see who's right. Possibly with the growth in the BRIC middle class the amount of new air traffic may be that both can be right.

Personally I think the the A380 is probably a bust, tho will be interesting to see how Air Austral go with a full economy A380. I wonder if a 34-36" seat pitch with budget airline style catering is a possibility for cheap comfort to Europe???

 

[D747]

Geez, have you been living under a Rok? 

Sydney airport expansion plan
Melbourne airport expansion plan -
Perth airport expansion plan -
Additional runway at Heathrow
To name but a few!

Sydney airport expansion plan - No extra slots, already maxed out.
Melbourne airport expansion plan - Yes please, my home port.
Perth airport expansion plan - So which international operators will start up there?
Additional runway at Heathrow - I believe the local greenies will kill this, again. Has been talked about for years.
More like under a slab!

My main point of difference is that I just hate the 777. It is the most boring aircraft I have ever flown on. And as for the airlines that make the seating config 3-4-3 in Y, well the less said the better, but 15+ hours crammed in like that is inhumane.

 

[drron]

More like under a slab!

My main point of difference is that I just hate the 777. It is the most boring aircraft I have ever flown on. And as for the airlines that make the seating config 3-4-3 in Y, well the less said the better, but 15+ hours crammed in like that is inhumane.

It's very nice in F.

 

[docjames]

Straitman, where did those numbers come from? How reliable are they?

It illustrates the 777 is a very very good aircraft. A comparo might show how much QF really should have gone for 777s instead of the 744ERs back in the early 2000s.

The 380 seems to fill a role at slot restricted airports where the seat count is required, but the economics of an aircraft that size seem to favour medium haul to high capacity requiring airports (LHR anyone?).

It seems QF could have gone for a 380 fleet of a dozen for LHR routes, and another 10-12 777s for lax and other routes.

Interesting numbers. Wonder if similar numbers will come out of LHR once the 748 comes on stream?

 

[The Rok]

Even though Qantas have committed to particular aircraft over the coming 8 years I would not rule out the purchase of a couple of 777's. Particularly if there is another delay on the Dreamliner.

However I don't necessarily see that the 777's would fill a gap for QF if they could get Dreamliner's. I think the 787 would be a better product for QFi. The 777 would only really suit a handful of routes. LHR and LAX are easily serviced and best suited to the A380. I am of course talking about QF and JQ.

 

[markis10]

Sydney airport expansion plan - No extra slots, already maxed out.
Melbourne airport expansion plan - Yes please, my home port.
Perth airport expansion plan - So which international operators will start up there?
Additional runway at Heathrow - I believe the local greenies will kill this, again. Has been talked about for years.
.

Not sure where your information is coming from but it is in error, Sydney has three new airlines starting, Perth has a few new middle eastern airlines starting as well!

 

[The Rok]

Not sure where your information is coming from but it is in error, Sydney has three new airlines starting, Perth has a few new middle eastern airlines starting as well!

Not to mention that EY has publicly stated that they have their eye on PER as their next Australian destination. Qatar Airways are starting. One of the Chinese airlines has jet started PER flights. Lots happening.

 

[markis10]

Even though Qantas have committed to particular aircraft over the coming 8 years I would not rule out the purchase of a couple of 777's. Particularly if there is another delay on the Dreamliner.

I must admit I am intrigued by the large number of undisclosed 777 orders this year.......

Customer Name	Country	Region	Model	Engine	Order Date	Total
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	29-Jul-2011	1
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	05-Aug-2011	2
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	19-Aug-2011	2
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	30-Sep-2011	1
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	31-Oct-2011	2
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	16-Nov-2011	8
Unidentified	Unidentified	777F	GE	15-Dec-2011	2

[TH="colspan: 5"]Orders for January 2011 through December 2011 [/TH]
[TD="colspan: 2"] [/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TH="colspan: 6"]Total[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]18[/TH]

 

[The Rok]

I must admit I am intrigued by the large number of undisclosed 777 orders this year.......

Customer Name	Country	Region	Model	Engine	Order Date	Total
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	29-Jul-2011	1
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	05-Aug-2011	2
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	19-Aug-2011	2
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	30-Sep-2011	1
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	31-Oct-2011	2
Unidentified	Unidentified	777-300ER	GE	16-Nov-2011	8
Unidentified	Unidentified	777F	GE	15-Dec-2011	2

[TH="colspan: 5"]Orders for January 2011 through December 2011 [/TH]
[TD="colspan: 2"][/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TD]

[TH="colspan: 6"]Total[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]18[/TH]

Possibly leasing companies. Or even wealthy (Middle Eastern) billionaires.

QF could probably lease some 777's if they wanted to, fill in the gaps and allow them to retire some costly older fleet early.

Might give Sir Alan Joyce a ring and suggest it to him.

 

[straitman]

Straitman, where did those numbers come from? How reliable are they?

The numbers come from a friend who is a test pilot. (Empire Test Pilots School)

I do not know where he got them from. ---- A side line is he is also a QF 747 Captain.