Overbooking flights - a frank airline perspective - thank you Avianca!

[juddles]

G’day there all,

I know that the issue of overbooking flights irritates many, even though it is a standard airline practice. I thought I would share something I saw today which is the first time I have ever seen simple “facts” stated directly by an airline. Below I have attached a photo of a page in Avianca’s current inflight magazine. Sorry it is in Spanish! But I will faithfully translate the content. I like the article because it shows what to me seems to be an extremely rare case of an airline being frank and informative to its pax!

The article is titled “Two passengers – only one seat?”

The first paragraph says “ When you are in the boarding lounge waiting for the boarding call, and suddenly you hear that they are asking for volunteers to change their flights, this could be because the flight has been overbooked. See here what this practice is about, common between airlines.”

(Rather than one huge post, I will now post each of the 7 paragraphs or sections in a separate post each. Please give me an hour to do this before replying / posting, so this stays tidy

 

[juddles]

Next paragraph: "(Que es el overbooking?) What is overbooking? This is the number of seats sold for a flight above the actual capacity of same, with the objective that the flight takes off with all seats filled despite some passenger canceling their flight or not being able to arrive due to some unforeseen circumstance"

 

[juddles]

Next: "(Todo friamente calculado) Everything coldly calculated: to deduce the number of seats we can oversell, in Avianca we analyze various factors:

Using specialized software that keeps a historical record of each flight, route, and timetable, we can predict how many passengers will cancel their trip, this is to say it indicates how many seats we can overbook

We take into account events during the year, if it is high or low season, and external factors, such as a storm, that can make a passenger decide to travel or not"

 

[juddles]

"(Completamente legal) Completely legal: this practice started in the USA in 1960 when airlines realized that many passengers did not show up for flights. For this reason, they evaluated options that would reduce this without the passengers incurring high penalties. This was how overbooking was legalized via Rule CE No.261/2004"

 

[juddles]

"(Y si los calculos fallan?) And if the calculations fail? This airline has a Client Protection Section, which constantly monitors flights up to two or three months in advance so this does not happen, even so, if it is suspected that all passengers may turn up for a flight, various preventative strategies are activated to not deny boarding to passengers. Some of these are:

Offer other alternatives such as being placed on another flight

Economic compensation or services of accomodation or food or transport, dependent on each case"

 

[juddles]

"(Sabias que?) Did you know that...? Some of our passengers are on volunteer lists that change their flights when necessary to re-accommodate flyers."

 

[juddles]

"(Datos) Facts:

- approximately 1 in 10 passengers do not show up at the airport

- In Avianca overbooking is only done in Economy

- ALL flights are overbooked.

- On average, this airline overbooks between 4% and 7% of seats for each flight"

 

[juddles]

"(El overbooking no es el unico factor para denegar abordaje) Overbooking is not the only factor to deny boarding: That's how it is. This practice is only one of multiple reasons an airline tells a passenger they cannot travel. Learn the other reasons in our next issue.."

 

[juddles]

Anyway, I thought this may be informative and/or of interest to FF's. I particularly was astounded at Avianca's frankness, especially regarding the fact that they openly state they overbook EVERY flight, by 4-7%!!

 

[Steady]

Thanks juddles, you put in a bit of time to do this

 

[carls888]

Fascinating. Thank you for translating. From a business perspective it makes sense, I suppose it is how the airline implements this that is the interesting part...

 

[Flying Fox]

"(Datos) Facts:

- approximately 1 in 10 passengers do not show up at the airport

- In Avianca overbooking is only done in Economy

- ALL flights are overbooked.

- On average, this airline overbooks between 4% and 7% of seats for each flight"

No way!!!

1 in 10 passengers are no shows??

I would have never guessed the figure was this high! I would have said 1% not 10% (shows you how little I know).

 

[Melburnian1]

....

1 in 10 passengers are no shows??

I would have never guessed the figure was this high! I would have said 1% not 10%....

Based on what I have previously read (although it is dated), I would have said 'five per cent do not turn up.'

So to overbook flights by four to seven per cent seems fairly reasonable, but I do not share the airline's confidence that it will mostly get the number of no-shows correct. Anything - family deaths, road traffic delays in getting to th airport, businessmen booking two seats on different airlines because they don't know at what time they'll travel, sickness such as 'the flu' - can increase the number of no shows.

Excellent translation juddles though. Thank you!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

yes the practice started in the 1950s or whatever... but back then fares were fully flexible... and passengers did book a seat on multiple flights to get flexibility. But in 2017 things are markedly different... we have non-refundable and non-changeable fares. Can an airline sell one of those seats twice? Does that contravene consumer protection rights?

Not sure that EU261 'legalised' overbooking... it provided hefty penalties in the event of denied boarding and if timely alternatives can't be provided. Overbooking is not a case of legal vs illegal... it's a contractual issue. And one that airlines take advantage of by hiding behind phrases like 'airline industry practice'. The USA has limited protections (more so after the recent United incident). Europe has EU261. Australia... nothing.

aside from inconvenience... the other issue is whether airlines should be allowed to profit from overbooking. I would like to see the bumped passenger compensated by either the value of their own (bumped) fare or the value of the person who took the seat... which ever is the highest. That would ensure the airline makes no profit from overselling.

 

[burmans]

So to overbook flights by four to seven per cent seems fairly reasonable, but I do not share the airline's confidence that it will mostly get the number of no-shows correct.

I'm not sure they even try to get the number "correct" because that's close to an impossible task, many of the factors you mention are by their very nature unpredictable, and no doubt while the average rate is x% this can vary significantly from flight to flight for in many cases no obvious reason.

There are costs either way, empty seats if they don't set the overbooking factor high enough vs compensation costs if they set too high. No doubt they model likely scenarios (based on historical data) to maximise the revenue/profit. But getting this "correct" certainly does not mean every flight is 100% full AND has no overbooking.

 

[juddles]

.... But getting this "correct" certainly does not mean every flight is 100% full AND has no overbooking.....

I agree it is not an "exact science", but statistics, especially carefully gathered ones over a long period, become quite accurate. In Avianca's case above, they have have something like 150+ aircraft, each flying many sectors per day.

I suspect that airlines have put a hell of a lot of effort into getting this as close to "right" as is possible, and in my experience the actual cases of denied boarding are minimal, and dealt with very well by the airlines. Most newsworthy (?) events and latter discussion are not actually related to the overbooking practice, but are actually other issues (mechanical, crew priority, etc etc)

 

[juddles]

Based on what I have previously read (although it is dated), I would have said 'five per cent do not turn up.'....

Perhaps there is a higher rate in Latin America due to cultural reasons? "They" also turn up late to meetings, don't reply to RSVP requests, etc etc

But if Avianca publishes a 10% no-show stat in their inflight magazine you can be guaranteed it is correct. They are severely held accountable in this country.

 

[Duffa]

Thanks Juddles
Very interesting reading.
Wonder how I'll go with Ryanair next month? Have never been on an empty airplane with them but conversely, never de-boarded

 

[ICUDr]

Really well translated Juddles.
Your Spanish is really good!

 

[JohnM]

Really well translated Juddles.
Your Spanish is really good!

It should be. He has spent (and still spends) plenty of time there since he was a kid .