Keenly awaiting the assessment of
@trippin_the_rift
Firstly, we must acknowledge that Virgin is primarily a Domestic airline, and its international partnerships are unpredictable and unsustainable without VA being part of a real alliance that provides a standard set benefit to passengers.
My initial thought is that the changes feel consistent with those made by economists and excel-sheet-lovers, and not by visionaries.
A change to check the box and move them to the next stage. Low risk, low reward.
If you look at the management team makeup of both VA & QF - large percentage of them have worked for a big4 consulting firm.
This provides you with insight on how the decision making process is internally structured. While this is a good thing from a market/management perspective, it means we're unlikely to see anything cool, no risks taken, no funky marketing, no innovation -- and ultimately a QF v2.
Velocity:
The status changes removes much of the behavioural psychology influence - something that the finance types struggle to come to grips with -- that is, a large percentage of status holders globally think, act, spend and fly on an irrational basis.
However, VA being a domestic carrier, and with limited market opportunity for passengers inside Australia - VA will probably get away with using basic economic models instead of having to factor in other factors that Qantas and a real international airline would be majorly impacted by with any change to the status tiers.
Forever Gold: Everyone in the industry knows that lifetime status has a significant downside. Only a handful of carriers have solutions to address this downside (eg: Alaska). That is, most members who earn lifetime status immediately "spend down" or disconnect from the airline entirely. There is no incentive to continue beyond what they NEED to do (eg: if they NEED to fly SYD-MEL weekly...that continues). Velocity could have easily added Forever Gold benefits, e.g., each year you start with 400SC, and all flights forever have double SC. But they didn't, which makes me think it wasn't thought out as deeply as it could have been or perhaps even rushed.
Platinum Plus: Taking benefits away from Platinum and giving them only to Platinum Plus tells you two things:
- They want Platinum Plus to be the new Platinum. In fairness, 800SC for Platinum is a bit light (and is more on par with QF Gold spending power for status earning). Providing extra context here, Etihad's Platinum (seen as like-for-like on the benefits side as a Velocity Partner airline) requires 120,000 tier miles to earn status, which is approximately 5-6x return business class trips AU->EU. You won't earn EY Platinum for under $50K. Compare that to Velocity Platinum, which most would score for around $10-$15K. So when Velocity talks about a recalibration, they're probably re-adjusting to the current market conditions where the RASK and costs on partner airlines are higher.
- They ran out of ideas (or budget) to beef up the Platinum Plus proposition.
The changes won't be for everyone. On balance if we take a stab if more or less people will fly VA because of the changes it probably won't change anything. However, it will affect those who barely scrape into the tiers that will be forced between choosing to spend more, or spend less. Depending who is footing the flight costs... depends which direction one may go.
I also envisage tightened corporate travel policies, including specific set amounts that corporations can spend on flights.
The issue VA has created here is that individual members are incentivized to spend more to fly. In USA (where similar things happened years ago), company travel policies almost uniformly and instantly went to "lowest cost flight of the day", and away from a "book what makes the most sense". You can see why I refer to these changes as being driven by economists and 'big4-type' folks. It makes sense on paper, but it makes less sense when you throw in the spanner of human psychology.
I am not a fan of linking status to spend, as it's NOT transparent for many members (eg: you book SIN-SYD (SQ) connecting SYD-MEL-BNE on VA. How much of the ticket value is VA? What if the fare is fuel dumped? What if the primary carrier has YR? What if booked through an agent?) These are the types of situations other airlines deal with on revenue status and revenue accrual models. It becomes a nightmare for some (not all) customers.
Overall, the changes feel like an initial step in the right direction (from an airline perspective), as these are the biggest changes we've seen from the program in more than a decade. Although on the surface, it doesn't seem great for passengers, we ultimately won't know until 18-24 months from now.
The biggest determining factor on Velocitys success here may be if Qantas copies the revenue status model.
ie: If Qantas copies it, then Velocity will look great and it will work out wonderfully.
If Qantas does not copy it, then Velocity will be judged on its own decisions instead of what QF may or may not do.
In summary, it's an "S year" for Velocity.
I look forward to better and more exciting things in the future.