Points upgrade on overbooked flight?

[djfuzz]

Just wanted to see if my thinking on this is right -

We are heading off on the first leg of our honeymoon from MEL-HKG on QF29 this Sunday, and booked PE (T class) and submitted a points upgrade for J.

Seat counter shows the flight as A1 B2 F2 Y2, everything else 0, so it appears that the flight is pretty much overbooked.

Will we be upgraded ahead of op-ups, or does that depend solely on whether QF's quota of setas for points upgrades for this flight has been exhausted?

My conclusion (which I am seeking to clarify) is that if J is overbooked, high status pax with points upgrades will be upped to F, then WPs and SGs will be op-upped. If this creates any vacancies in J, we will be behind any elites (we are both currently NB, no OW status yet either) with points upgrades but ahead of any who might be op-upped, right?

I figure the chances of it going through are slim given how packed the flight is, so luckily we booked PE and can enjoy that service on this leg of the trip and save those points for later.

 

[serfty]

That flight is full; it may even be oversold.

I believe in the general course of processing that J->F upgrades are assessed first, then Y+/Y->J, followed by Y->Y+ before any op-ups are considered.

 

[MelUser]

My own experience indicates that points upgrades are processed ahead of opups (other than last minute opups).

My own view is that you have a good chance.

Please let us know if you get your upgrade!

 

[djfuzz]

Thanks serfty, that is exactly why I ask - if Y goes to 0, and is presumably oversold, I imagine they'd need to be shifting some pax up the chain by op ups to fit everyone in before they start offloading anyone to other flights (?) - in which case, I was a bit confused as to whether the imperative to op up or points upgrade came from below rather than above. I'm sure it's all part of the yield management, just interested to see how it relates to us.

MelUser - will definitely let you know, I am rather excited either way since I haven't had the chance to try PE before (and we've been looking forward to this trip for quite some time!)

 

[serfty]

...- if Y goes to 0, and is presumably oversold ...

I would not be surprised if Y is already oversold; there may be up to 2 F seats remaining (perhaps none) and Qantas Y/M are willing to sell those seats for even high WHY fares.

 

[djfuzz]

... which begs the question (putting aside the issue of points or op ups) what do they do if the flight closes and is full and oversold in each class? Offload people to other flights that depart later based on fares/status?

 

[NM]

... which begs the question (putting aside the issue of points or op ups) what do they do if the flight closes and is full and oversold in each class? Offload people to other flights that depart later based on fares/status?

They generally know at least 24 hours out if this is likely to happen. They then start to call some passengers offering alternate flight/routings to get them to their destination.

 

[aus_flyer]

... which begs the question (putting aside the issue of points or op ups) what do they do if the flight closes and is full and oversold in each class? Offload people to other flights that depart later based on fares/status?

I've been told on good authority that Qantas does not oversell the top cabin on an aircraft.

 

[docjames]

qantas.com still offering up to 5 seats for sale in supersaver (about $1k, full econ (about $1600), J or F. interestingly doesnt matter if try and book 5 in J or F so empty seats all at front of a/c but they'll still take supersaver which surprises me (you'd think it'd be full Y or above only).

Try to book 6 in any class and no go.

 

[NM]

I've been told on good authority that Qantas does not oversell the top cabin on an aircraft.

That is also my understanding. However, last minute aircraft changes can result in less J seats than originally anticipated as being available for sale. Or other flights disruptions can also mean there are more people wanting to get on a particular flight than there are seats. While this technically is not an "overselling" situation, some agents will look at the existence of a waitlist/stand-by list and still use the term "oversold". This is why there will always be people who can cite examples of where "Qantas oversold J or F on my flight".

 

[serfty]

What Qantas will try to do is sell every seat on the aircraft if they can.

As the flight get closer and there are still seats unsold in the premium cabins they will sell that capacity for WHY fares, initially the higher fares but often leading up to the flight some lower fares, especially if the premium cabins is/are really undersold.

They will then decide who to op-up into the better seats. There is a credible post on FT regarding this: (Frequency of QF upgrades?)

...
Well to put it simplistically, the value that is given to a customer (called a PCV*) for ranking can apply to any way in which QF wants to use it. In the system, there's a feature called 'Proactive Onload' that calculates the pax booked vs estimated to check in and board. From that screen, the system makes recommendations of which pax are to be oped-up. Now, keyword is RECOMMENDATIONS, the staff and supervisor make the ultimate decision but in essence the system is designed to choose who gets Oped-Up and who stays put.

PCV*: ... Basically, Qantas has setup a list order (call it a value) of each pax for each and every flight ... . The ranking order takes into account FF status, PNR associations, SSRs, booking class, etc. ...

 

[v8Statesman]

My own experience indicates that points upgrades are processed ahead of opups (other than last minute opups).

My own view is that you have a good chance.

Please let us know if you get your upgrade!

My experience has been the opposite. HKG-PER I made a points upgrade request from Full Y-J. It was declined. On boarding I was handed a new BP what was OP-Up'd to J. No points ever deducted from my account.

 

[AnonymousCoward]

My experience has been the opposite. HKG-PER I made a points upgrade request from Full Y-J. It was declined. On boarding I was handed a new BP what was OP-Up'd to J. No points ever deducted from my account.

The need to op-up you was probably a last minute thing (e.g. QF needed additional seats in Y for some reason).

Otherwise, you would most likely have seen a change in your booking to reflect your new class if QF had op-uped you before.

It makes sense to take points from people who want to use points rather than give away upgrades for free. The former makes QF money. The later doesn't.

 

[v8Statesman]

It makes sense to take points from people who want to use points rather than give away upgrades for free. The former makes QF money. The later doesn't.

I agree with you. I'm just saying, even with QF, Magic can happen

 

[djfuzz]

The flight is now showing B1 F1 Y1 and all zeroes, so I'm thinking the jig may be up.

But the reviews of the PE product here have been quite good so we're definitely looking forward to that. We're at the back of the PE cabin so hopefully we can recline a little in row 37 without worrying about annoying anyone behind us.

 

[Blackadder]

Shouldn't have any problems in Y+, look at it as equivalent to domestic J in terms of leg room etc.

 

[serfty]

The flight is now showing B1 F1 Y1 and all zeroes, so I'm thinking the jig may be up. ...

The fat lady may not yet have sung - Qantas Y/M would have considered all point upgrade requests in their calculations and may already planned to grant your upgrade requests.

Last year, mrs serfty and I travelled in Business class on QF107 SYD-JFK sans 192K QFF points with an upgrades granted on an F2 A0 J0 D0 ... Y0 B0 ... flight.

 

[djfuzz]

As expected, checked the points balance today and our upgrade was declined. Must be all those WPs upgrading N, O and Q fares!

Hehe, nah the one F seat is now gone and the flight appears to be all zeroes. Fun night in store! At least when we return from this trip Mrs Djf will be a WP herself which might be handy on less full flights.

Will try to write up our PE experience at the other end. Cheers for your help guys.

 

[serfty]

"Upgrade Declined" is normal; It is part of the standard processing.

Look your booking up at www.checkmytrip.com; you should see the segment entry for the original booked class. As well, a waitlisted <upgrade> class segment for the same flight will show.

If your upgrade comes through, this will become confirmed and the segment entry with the original booked class will disappear. At which point in time www.qantas.com.au/yourbooking will show as confirmed.

It appears that Qantas.com is fudged so that when a waitlisted <Upgrade Class> segment and a confirmed lower class original segment exist on the same PNR for the same flight it will show online as "Declined".

If the upgrade does not come through, the waitlisted <Upgrade Class> record will stay there until the PNR is completed ... and the upgrade for that segment will always show declined ...

 

[djfuzz]

Sadly no such luck serfty - checkmytrip only shows the confirmed segments, no <upgrade> waitlisting. Will check again later in any case.

Just out of interest, any idea who the (un)lucky ones who get called up and rerouted on the overbooked flights usually are? Is it random or by passenger characteristics like status or fare class?