Article: Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity

[AFF Editor]

Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity is an article written by AFF editorial staff:

Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity

At the start of 2020, Qantas was selling around 34,000 weekly seats between Australia and five destinations in the continental United States. It's now

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

You can leave a comment or discuss this topic below.

 

[Matt_01]

Interesting article and it doesn't surprise me, 10 months back when we changed our plans from EU to the US the only carriers I looked at were SQ, EK and QR as they all had flights to the US from their hubs and all had flown to AU during Covid. Our trip to the US (EK and SQ) has come and gone without issue.

 

[antycbr]

The absence of VA has made a huge difference to the market. 13K seats a week is all of the lower cost capacity out of the market… VA often discounted heavily, which did nothing great for VAs bottom line with the 777 being too much aircraft for their needs. I sadly miss the business product and capacity from an award perspective!

 

[eastwest101]

The absence of VA has made a huge difference to the market. 13K seats a week is all of the lower cost capacity out of the market… VA often discounted heavily, which did nothing great for VAs bottom line with the 777 being too much aircraft for their needs. I sadly miss the business product and capacity from an award perspective!

Yep - the loss of capacity is significant although many on here maintain that the Virgin B773 transpacific did make a profit pre-Covid.

But yes - the removal of the Virgin B777 fleet from service probably has added handsomely to the bottom lines of Qantas, United, Delta and American Airlines today. Things might get tougher though in the future, as at the moment there is a lot of pent-up demand for international traffic worldwide i.e. visiting friends and family and finally going on holiday after Covid lockdowns, but if the US and Australian economies go south next year, that will put a stop to a lot of discretionary travel. It might be that business related international travel is still a bit weak so all the airlines are having to increase Y fares because the J and F parts of the transpacific market maybe aren't the money spinners that they were pre-Covid?

 

[levelnine]

Does that mean the elevated prices and reduced award availability we're seeing on Trans-Pacific flights are purely a result of reduced supply? In other words, there really isn't a post-COVID travel boom — if supply were at pre-COVID levels, we'd be calling this a 'travel slump'. It only appears to be a travel boom because supply has been drastically reduced.

 

[dajop]

so all the airlines are having to increase Y fares because the J and F parts of the transpacific market maybe aren't the money spinners that they were pre-Covid?

Do airlines ever charge more for Y just because J and F fares are lower? Don’t they always charge Y fares according to supply and demand in order to maximise the yield at the time the aircraft goes out?

Sure they’ll increase (or given where fares are at right now, maintain) Y fares if the market will take it. If the market can’t take it, and loads go down they’ll adjust Y fares accordingly. No different to normal.

I think what we are seeing is some capacity restraint, perhaps triggered by staffing issues, without actually colluding they’re all exhibiting that restraint in order to maintain good profitability by not chasing poorer quality revenue and trying to grow.

When the downturn comes, who knows what will happen.

 

[Saab34]

Does that mean the elevated prices and reduced award availability we're seeing on Trans-Pacific flights are purely a result of reduced supply? In other words, there really isn't a post-COVID travel boom — if supply were at pre-COVID levels, we'd be calling this a 'travel slump'. It only appears to be a travel boom because supply has been drastically reduced.

I think so. Remember when Virgin entered the trans pacific, almost immediately prices dropped across the board permanently across all players. Huge increase in seats was just too much for the market.

The pricing we are seeing now is how the market was priced, for the decade before Virgin dumped all its seats in.

Remains to be seen how the market will settle, but don’t think we are going back to how the maket was prior Covid. Depends if Delta adds another direct flight, or United also.

 

[reniklaf]

It is all related to price and supply/demand. If the prices came down substantially demand would increase, perhaps Qantas is not in a position to increase the number of flights and accept a lower yield, in the meantime it is losing market share.

 

[Limewood]

The QF Points required these days OZ to USA in J has risen about 200%, so we two have stopped traveling long haul.

 

[Numbat2]

Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity is an article written by AFF editorial staff:

Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity

At the start of 2020, Qantas was selling around 34,000 weekly seats between Australia and five destinations in the continental United States. It's now

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

You can leave a comment or discuss this topic below.

Indeed. Very interesting but what is the impact of Air Canada. This is now our preferred choice for BNE to BOS. Cheaper than Qantas and only have to deal with one US airport, avoiding the frequently tiresome LAX and being the last in line to board when it seems everyone and their dog has some sort of priority boarding.

 

[dmgale1960]

Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity is an article written by AFF editorial staff:

Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity

At the start of 2020, Qantas was selling around 34,000 weekly seats between Australia and five destinations in the continental United States. It's now

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

You can leave a comment or discuss this topic below.

Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity is an article written by AFF editorial staff:

Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity

At the start of 2020, Qantas was selling around 34,000 weekly seats between Australia and five destinations in the continental United States. It's now

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

You can leave a comment or discuss this topic below.

 

[dmgale1960]

Also Australians busting to travel overseas looked at the aud to the usd and decided to look at different destinations. We chose Thailand and we’re loving it right now.

 

[Wendy de V]

They haven’t mentioned Air New Zealand.We’re traveling MEL to LAX late April 2023.Good Business fares.compared to the majors

 

[dajop]

Yes there are several 1-stop services to the US, that are fairly direct (in an English language sense, not using airline definition), such as Air New Zealand, Fiji Airways, Air Canada and Hawaiian. There also 1-stop services via NE Asia that aren't that attractive travelling to LAX, SFO, but are certainly competitive timewise if travelling to the east coast.

 

[BB1]

One other factor, not mentioned, that may be a small part of this drop is that the USA is still requiring full jabs to get into the country. A know a lot of people, who like me, didnt go down that road during the past 2 years. I'm ready and looking forward to travelling back to the USA once they finally admit its all over

 

[Sprucegoose]

have there been any technical / material breaches of their ASA’s as a result of reduced capacity or has that been overlooked due to Covid?

 

[HS-TQE]

I think so. Remember when Virgin entered the trans pacific, almost immediately prices dropped across the board permanently across all players. Huge increase in seats was just too much for the market.

The pricing we are seeing now is how the market was priced, for the decade before Virgin dumped all its seats in.

Remains to be seen how the market will settle, but don’t think we are going back to how the maket was prior Covid. Depends if Delta adds another direct flight, or United also.

Back then they were really only 2 players. QF and UA. VA (as V Australia) later entered into a partnership and eventual JV with now-former partner DL, which later stabilised the prices to an extent as VA/DL were 'effectively' one competitor.

The entrance of AA later put the prices back down before they eventually got into a JV with QF later.

As for DL outside SYD, I'd say it's a bit of a stretch unless of a combination of reasons from REX (their current partner) and/or State/Private (Airport) funding, such as Queensland Taxpayers partially subsidising UA's BNE-SFO flights and NSW taxpayers partially subsidising QF's SYD-BLR flights.

Most states has gotten into this arrangement since post COVID whereas pre-COVID it was mostly a Queensland and WA (and to a lesser extent the ACT) thing pre-COVID.

 

[HS-TQE]

Yes there are several 1-stop services to the US, that are fairly direct (in an English language sense, not using airline definition), such as Air New Zealand, Fiji Airways, Air Canada and Hawaiian. There also 1-stop services via NE Asia that aren't that attractive travelling to LAX, SFO, but are certainly competitive timewise if travelling to the east coast.

Hawaiian and Air Canada to some extent cut back some services post-COVID. BNE-HNL was publicly announced as axed by HA, whilst AC was already cutting back MEL-YVR to seasonal before the COVID shutdowns.

Fiji Airways seems to have added some services to YVR post-COVID. Although SFO-NAN hasn't recovered beyond 3x weekly. LAX has since been restored to daily.

However the connections from Australian cities seems to be fairly long, varying between 2.5 to 4 hours depending on which city you're flying in from.

 

[Mwenenzi]

With recent announced UA expansion worth a update on the current capacity/future Nov 23 capacity?
Can number of seats be determined and not just number of flights. But hard work to establish.

QF is being left behind in capacity AU<--->USA. Less A380's and waiting for new aircraft
Even FJ is increasing capacity (CBR)
Hopefully prices will tend down and award availability tend up with all alliance/carriers

 

[Lynda2475]

Lots of press this week about UA adding new BNE, SYD and AKL flights making them the largest provider of flights between Aus and US.