Article: Australia-USA Flights at 50% of Pre-COVID Capacity

[justinbrett]

Lots of press this week about UA adding new BNE, SYD and AKL flights making them the largest provider of flights between Aus and US.

I’ve seen that claim in various news sites, and also specifically the most flights between SYD and the US, but the only direct quote I can find from an UA rep said largest between US and the South Pacific (inc NZ) which would absolutely be true.

I’m not sure about Aus as a whole, but from my numbers QF still has the lead ex SYD - and that’s not including the AA flight that’s part of the JV.

Either way I welcome more competition, prices have been ridiculous and it would be great to see sub 1K Y return fares and reasonable J fares again.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

I sadly miss the business product and capacity from an award perspective!

I sadly miss the whole VA J exp - service / bar / fun experience IMHO was way superior to QF F - we would choose VA J over QF F in a heart beat - but as always YMWV and wouldn’t do for us to all like same girl would it?

 

[Saab34]

I don’t think the Pacific would be able to handle Virgin now, if they went back to a similar schedule, we would be well over capacity.

United will get comfortable with its new profit pool, and I highly doubt they would cede flights to Virgin just so they can exist on the route. Which begs the question around Virgin even needing widebodies ever again.

 

[justinbrett]

I don’t think the Pacific would be able to handle Virgin now, if they went back to a similar schedule, we would be well over capacity.

United will get comfortable with its new profit pool, and I highly doubt they would cede flights to Virgin just so they can exist on the route. Which begs the question around Virgin even needing widebodies ever again.

Although I think with newer aircraft that have longer ranges, there’s a lot of opportunity for new routes to places other than LAX/SFO.

It’s interesting that 100% of UA’s year round services are from SFO/LAX and can’t make IAH work anything more than seasonal - yet QF and NZ are both seeing success for flights further afield. You’d think places like DEN, SEA, LAS and PDX are all potential destinations, at least seasonally.

So many Aussies hate LAX and SFO’s recent crime problems isn’t doing its reputation any good.

 

[HS-TQE]

I don’t think the Pacific would be able to handle Virgin now, if they went back to a similar schedule, we would be well over capacity.

United will get comfortable with its new profit pool, and I highly doubt they would cede flights to Virgin just so they can exist on the route. Which begs the question around Virgin even needing widebodies ever again.

Considering the Queensland Government has beefed up their taxpayer subsidy to support daily SFO, in addition to varying gauge changes between the 788 and 789, one has to question whether the SFO capacity out of BNE will still be there in 2 years time.

As stated earlier, still thinking UA could've spent more of their own OpEx to take QF head-on by starting BNE-LAX as 5x weekly.

Saying that there is still the question whether the varied upgauges in the Southern Capitals will be there when NW24 rolls around or whether it reverts back to the 789.

Edit: Added link

 

[HS-TQE]

Although I think with newer aircraft that have longer ranges, there’s a lot of opportunity for new routes to places other than LAX/SFO.

It’s interesting that 100% of UA’s year round services are from SFO/LAX and can’t make IAH work anything more than seasonal - yet QF and NZ are both seeing success for flights further afield. You’d think places like DEN, SEA, LAS and PDX are all potential destinations, at least seasonally.

So many Aussies hate LAX and SFO’s recent crime problems isn’t doing its reputation any good.

I think was mention of UA looking at DEN-AKL but it never went past the proposal board. SEA are either DL or AA as they have bases there (although not officially a hub for either), regardless can't see either those two having a go at it (SEA isn't a UA base). Though AA do have fellow Oneworld partner Alaska hubbing at SEA.

LAS is leisure heavy, not a base for any of the US3, and can't see any airline having a go even on a seasonal basis, like JL was doing with the LAS-NRT seasonal services pre-pandemic.

 

[Lynda2475]

Since QF never got BNE-ORD off the ground that might have been a great option to bypass LAX if UA wanted to offer something different.

When Ansett was around and in Star Alliance i used to fly UA to SFO,

 

[justinbrett]

I think was mention of UA looking at DEN-AKL but it never went past the proposal board. SEA are either DL or AA as they have bases there (although not officially a hub for either), regardless can't see either those two having a go at it (SEA isn't a UA base).

LAS is leisure heavy, not a base for any of the US3, and can't see any airline having a go even on a seasonal basis, like JL was doing with the LAS-NRT seasonal services pre-pandemic.

I think you’ve confused AA and AS - there’s no AA hub in SEA, and I can’t see AS flying to Aus. That’s definitely a future QF route If any.

DEN would be the obvious choice for UA.

As for LAS, HNL is almost exclusively leisure (and does quite well) so it doesn’t rule out on that basis alone. Although it’s not a hub for any of the big 3, it is a major airport and you can connect to lots of destinations from there, just because it’s a popular destination for US travelers. It’s effectively a virtual hub for all 3. In addition, AA has form for flying international services out of non-hubs.

Edit - sorry you said base not hub, but that reenforces my last sentence.

 

[HS-TQE]

Since QF never got BNE-ORD off the ground that might have been a great option to bypass LAX if UA wanted to offer something different.

When Ansett was around and in Star Alliance i used to fly UA to SFO,

Though both QF and UA has 789s, UA's 789 configs are a bit heavier (more Y) to operate BNE-ORD non-stop without refueling. UA's 789s will likely require a payload hit to make BNE-ORD.

 

[justinbrett]

Since QF never got BNE-ORD off the ground that might have been a great option to bypass LAX if UA wanted to offer something different.

When Ansett was around and in Star Alliance i used to fly UA to SFO,

I think it’s still their intention, once they have the aircraft available.

 

[AFF Editor]

With recent announced UA expansion worth a update on the current capacity/future Nov 23 capacity?
Can number of seats be determined and not just number of flights. But hard work to establish.

I did do some analysis in this article following the United announcement earlier this week:

United Expands Service to Australia & New Zealand

United Airlines is massively increasing service to Australia and NZ with increased frequencies and three new routes starting from October 2023, including Brisbane-Los Angeles.

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

I've updated the capacity chart to include the projected capacity across all carriers in December 2023. This will be after all of United's new flights get added. By this time, Qantas will be running SYD-SFO and have brought back the A380 on MEL-LAX as well.

I have some more detailed numbers in a spreadsheet that I put together when researching for that article. In December 2023, United is expected to have 47.2% of seat capacity between Australia and continental USA. Qantas will have 35.9%, based on current schedules.

 

[justinbrett]

I did do some analysis in this article following the United announcement earlier this week:

United Expands Service to Australia & New Zealand

United Airlines is massively increasing service to Australia and NZ with increased frequencies and three new routes starting from October 2023, including Brisbane-Los Angeles.

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

I've updated the capacity chart to include the projected capacity across all carriers in December 2023. This will be after all of United's new flights get added. By this time, Qantas will be running SYD-SFO and have brought back the A380 on MEL-LAX as well.

I have some more detailed numbers in a spreadsheet that I put together when researching for that article. In December 2023, United is expected to have 47.2% of seat capacity between Australia and USA. Qantas will have 35.9%, based on current schedules.

So that excludes HNL?

If HNL is included (as it should be) what do the numbers look like then?

 

[AFF Editor]

So that excludes HNL?

If HNL is included (as it should be) what do the numbers look like then?

Yes, it excludes HNL because the original analysis was only done on routes between Australia and mainland USA.

If we include Hawaii, United would still have the most seats between Australia and the USA with 40.9% of capacity. Qantas is at 35.5%.

 

[Saab34]

Any reason why United can’t start a Honolulu to Aus service?

 

[justinbrett]

Yes, it excludes HNL because the original analysis was only done on routes between Australia and mainland USA.

If we include Hawaii, United would still have the most seats between Australia and the USA with 40.9% of capacity. Qantas is at 35.5%.

Can you show a breakdown by route? My numbers show 11693 for QF excluding HNL, 13178 including it.

Have you also excluded JFK?

Do the UA numbers include the seasonal routes (ie IAH?)

 

[AFF Editor]

Can you show a breakdown by route? My numbers show 11693 for QF excluding HNL, 13178 including it.

Have you also excluded JFK?

Do the UA numbers include the seasonal routes (ie IAH?)

Yes, I had excluded SYD-AKL-JFK because my original comparison was of non-stop flights from Australia to mainland USA. Even if we add that, it's only an extra 708 seats per week. United still has 40.1% of seats compared to 36.8% on Qantas.

The numbers are based on the currently published schedules in December 2023 and are based on one-way schedules.

 

[justinbrett]

Yes, I had excluded SYD-AKL-JFK because my original comparison was of non-stop flights from Australia to mainland USA. Even if we add that, it's only an extra 708 seats per week. United still has 40.1% of seats compared to 36.8% on Qantas.

The numbers are based on the currently published schedules in December 2023 and are based on one-way schedules.

That's quite a lot of arbitrary caveats and exclusions. A reasonable person would expect to see HNL and JFK included when discussing flights between AU & US (HNL is a perfectly valid gateway to the US as much as LAX is).

My stats have UA slightly ahead (<1000 seats) which is narrowed further if we include YVR to expand to Australia - North America services. That's also not considering the AA joint venture which adds further seats to the equation.

As I said upthread, I think the variety of destinations both QF and NZ are serving is a significant advantage to UA's basically California only services.

 

[HS-TQE]

Considering reports that all USA-NZ adds by the US3 are NW seasonal, the question has to be asked whether BNE-LAX is also NW seasonal as well.

BNE-LAX is on UA's own dime/OpEx and there was the Queensland Government press release announcing the funding of daily SFO in partnership with the BAC, which is probably a missed opportunity and makes it difficult for split SFO/LAX ops over the NW24 season.

 

[jrfsp]

Yes, I had excluded SYD-AKL-JFK because my original comparison was of non-stop flights from Australia to mainland USA. Even if we add that, it's only an extra 708 seats per week. United still has 40.1% of seats compared to 36.8% on Qantas.

The numbers are based on the currently published schedules in December 2023 and are based on one-way schedules.

How many seats on QF AKL-JFK will have NZ POS rather than being sold AU? Should only include non-stop otherwise brings in NZ, FJ plus all others.

 

[justinbrett]

How many seats on QF AKL-JFK will have NZ POS rather than being sold AU? Should only include non-stop otherwise brings in NZ, FJ plus all others.

It doesn’t really compare as the QF service is still a direct flight - just swapping LAX from the previous routing with AKL. If they could bypass AKL they would (and will once the A350 arrives).

NZ have traffic rights to fly between AU and US (and have done previously) so nothing stopping them doing the same - but they don’t.

To your question I doubt many seats will be reserved ex AKL, they are competing head to head with NZ which will put pressure on fares, QF will get a much better margin ex SYD.