AFF Member Stock Discussion

[Dr Ralph]

What's the cut off for "good value"

For me it needs to be above what I can get with my 'spare' money. Mortgage intetest rates around 5% is a good guide.

Realistically 10% return is reasonably common.

 

[Mr_Orange]

But since the SPP was announced the share price went down for both these stocks, closing the gap between the market price and the SPP price making the value seem poor(er).

That's a pretty normal reaction.

 

[drron]

What's the cut off for "good value" for a SPP?

Yesterday I got one for Camplify CHL at around $1.78. I recently got one for Remsense REM for about $0.17.

In both cases, the SPP price was about 15% discount on the market price at the time of the SPP announcement.

But since the SPP was announced the share price went down for both these stocks, closing the gap between the market price and the SPP price making the value seem poor(er). Infact, REM is less than $0.14 today so those that took it up have lost out.

It depends on what you believe about the stock. No sense buying through the SPP if the price is lower on the market. If you think the market is being too severe on the stock then buy on market.

 

[Dr Ralph]

PL8 SPP announced today.

PL8 is one of my favourite stocks - As a retiree, a fully-franked monthly dividend is a wonderful thing.

I suppose the big question is whether there will be sufficient shares on offer to satisfy demand or whether there will be a scale-back.

Appears to be no scale back as I foreshadowed.

Looks like about 40% of shareholders participated in the offer.

 

[burmans]

Anyone want to offer any views on the general direction of the stock market in 2023.

My view for a while has been that the concerns about inflation are a bit overblown mainly because the main causes are significant one off events rather than structural. As a consequence inflation would peak and even start to come down earlier than expected, and as a consequence interest rates are also likely to peak lower/earlier than expected. We've started to see the first happening, and therefore my view is the second will also happen in the first half of next year.

Thoughts? I must stress I am talking medium term here for this to happen (i.e. we should see by mid 2023), it won't happen overnight. Keen to hear alternate views.

 

[CaptainCurtis]

BGL SPP announced at $1.05 - not sure I'm happy with the risk given the run up over the last couple of months. Long time to decide though with the offer only closing Jan 13th.

 

[Dr Ralph]

BGL SPP announced at $1.05 - not sure I'm happy with the risk given the run up over the last couple of months. Long time to decide though with the offer only closing Jan 13th.

Also noticed that this is the 3rd SPP for this company in 3 years.

 

[glasszon]

Anyone want to offer any views on the general direction of the stock market in 2023.

My view for a while has been that the concerns about inflation are a bit overblown mainly because the main causes are significant one off events rather than structural. As a consequence inflation would peak and even start to come down earlier than expected, and as a consequence interest rates are also likely to peak lower/earlier than expected. We've started to see the first happening, and therefore my view is the second will also happen in the first half of next year.

Thoughts? I must stress I am talking medium term here for this to happen (i.e. we should see by mid 2023), it won't happen overnight. Keen to hear alternate views.

My guess is similar to yours, the question is whether inflation will peak first or will the market buckle and enter a recession before rates are lowered. In the former I can see the equity market doing well, but in the latter we could well see a bit of a drop in share price before picking up again.

 

[Freq Flier 2013]

Hard to sa

My guess is similar to yours, the question is whether inflation will peak first or will the market buckle and enter a recession before rates are lowered. In the former I can see the equity market doing well, but in the latter we could well see a bit of a drop in share price before picking up again.

Hard to say, wages are still going up a lot due to staff shortages. I think cost to import goods with go up due to China removing covid rules but will be offset by reduced property prices.

 

[Buzzard]

Anyone want to offer any views on the general direction of the stock market in 2023.

My view for a while has been that the concerns about inflation are a bit overblown mainly because the main causes are significant one off events rather than structural. As a consequence inflation would peak and even start to come down earlier than expected, and as a consequence interest rates are also likely to peak lower/earlier than expected. We've started to see the first happening, and therefore my view is the second will also happen in the first half of next year.

Thoughts? I must stress I am talking medium term here for this to happen (i.e. we should see by mid 2023), it won't happen overnight. Keen to hear alternate views.

Statistically 3 years out of 10 the market is a bear market. I think 2023 will be one of those years.

 

[tgh]

views on the general direction

Very upbeat view of the US in todays rag.. inflation peaked early .. all blue sky..
( Based upon prose like that ..one assumes the worst and sells everything)
I hold a fairly sanguine view and opine that we should be ok with our rivers of export gold continuing to prop up our rampant social fabric spending
If they find a way to mollify the bear one might hope for even better times next year.

 

[burmans]

I think cost to import goods with go up due to China removing covid rules .

Not sure I understand what you mean by this, restrictions on supply due to Covid (particularly in China) has been cited as one of the reason for inflation, classic economic theory. With restriction on Covid being removed that supply should start to flow again so unsure how this increases inflation?

If you are talking about demand for fuel increasing then sure but frankly oil price hasn't kept on going up as some predicted, has stabilised and in fact has reduced slightly recently. Of course many factors may change that.

Post automatically merged: Dec 15, 2022

Statistically 3 years out of 10 the market is a bear market. I think 2023 will be one of those years.

Care to elaborate on why you think that, or is it just a gut feeling?

 

[Buzzard]

Not sure I understand what you mean by this, restrictions on supply due to Covid (particularly in China) has been cited as one of the reason for inflation, classic economic theory. With restriction on Covid being removed that supply should start to flow again so unsure how this increases inflation?

If you are talking about demand for fuel increasing then sure but frankly oil price hasn't kept on going up as some predicted, has stabilised and in fact has reduced slightly recently. Of course many factors may change that.

Post automatically merged: Dec 15, 2022

Care to elaborate on why you think that, or is it just a gut feeling?

Gut feeling based on the statistics quoted. Look at the bull years, perhaps it's now time for the bear? Nobody can predict with 100% accuracy.

 

[Mr_Orange]

Gut feeling based on the statistics quoted. Look at the bull years, perhaps it's now time for the bear? Nobody can predict with 100% accuracy.

I wouldn't exactly have called 2022 a Bull year. It looks as though the Dow will pretty much finish the year where it started.

 

[There'sOnlyOneJimmy]

So more of a Sloth year then…

 

[MARTINE]

Complex isnt it?
Inflation drivers are worker/commodity shortage driven (gas/Ukraine/Covid/China) and not due to wages breakout. Raising interest rates exacerbating folk who have not just cut to the bone - but down to the marrow. I suppose economy contracts when all you can afford is food - recession anyone?
Banks/ food suppliers/prob remain Ok abd resources /oil and gas?
All I am saying is so many moving parts its hard to predict using the old economic metrics

I bought a lot all through Covid depressed market at 40% discount (nowhere else to spend) - and sold some bits and pieces when things went bullish earlier in the year
Bulls bears -I sell some w former and buy w latter. Followed this for over 30 years and spread the risk never thinking I am too clever to pick peak or trough.
I think the last few years has amplified the fickle contrarian nature of the market and I never invested $$ which I could not afford to lose.
My 2 c worth but probably w inflation worth half that by the time I hit ‘post reply’

 

[Freq Flier 2013]

Not sure I understand what you mean by this, restrictions on supply due to Covid (particularly in China) has been cited as one of the reason for inflation, classic economic theory. With restriction on Covid being removed that supply should start to flow again so unsure how this increases inflation?

If you are talking about demand for fuel increasing then sure but frankly oil price hasn't kept on going up as some predicted, has stabilised and in fact has reduced slightly recently. Of course many factors may change that.

Post automatically merged: Dec 15, 2022

Care to elaborate on why you think that, or is it just a gut feeling?

I think that with people in China getting covid, production will slow down and prices will increase. They don’t have as many anti virals and covid vaccines so the impact to their economy and production will be rather large. That in turn will impact the rest of the world.

 

[tgh]

China getting covid, production will slow down and prices will increase

This should be a bellwether but folks will mostly fail to join the dots.. we are so dependent.. Chine sneezes and we starve

 

[burmans]

I think that with people in China getting covid, production will slow down and prices will increase. They don’t have as many anti virals and covid vaccines so the impact to their economy and production will be rather large. That in turn will impact the rest of the world.

Not suggesting getting COVID is a good thing but in many cases production has been stopped or as close to in China for ages, they need to get production and the economy underway eventually.

 

[CaptainCurtis]

Thought I would track my own version of the SPP Harvester, and share results here. Perhaps could have extracted another cent or two from PL8 and waited for the dividend, but my plan is to look for exits as soon as possible after the SPP shares are issued - not looking for market exposure from this strategy.

Through the single SPP thus far, I've managed to recover my setup costs associated with purchasing and selling the 200-odd stocks I now own a single share in.