AFF Member Stock Discussion

[cove]

Yes many retirement plans would have been suspended by the stock markets plunging around the world.
Our government has a stimulus package being developed to try to prevent an almighty recession which could be problematic for several state governments.
Our business is being surveyed today to give the Federal Government some latest trading facts. I guess they are surveying hundreds of businesses.
US bank shares dropped due to their loans to oil companies coming unstuck with the plunging oil price making repayments very difficult.

 

[moa999]

US only finished down 7%.
Aus futures predicting opening down 2.5% (edited) (was 2% above worst forecast)

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Aus market opening up 2%

Really?

 

[amaroo]

Interesting numbers on margin loads.

The level of outstanding margin debt per investor has more than doubled between 2012 and 2019, from $111,000 to $235,000, according to RBA figures.

 

[moa999]

And at midday we've got an upward spurt and everything is green

 

[Freq Flier 2013]

Us futures become visible at 11am our time so our market gets direction from there.

 

[Long_20]

Looks like another 5-6% decline today. I was confused in early Feb why we were making new highs even though the outbreak was happening. Should've sold some then. But alas... I've been buying small amounts the last week or so. Over the long term, this will be seen as a good buying opportunity.

 

[drron]

It's more than the corona virus.The fall in oil price is going to have major repercussions in the US with marginal companies in the fracking business unlikely to survive and the flow on to bank liabilities.Could get really ugly.
Of course the fall in oil price isn't a major problem for Australia but if the USA sneezes we can catch pneumonia.

 

[tgh]

if the USA sneezes we can catch pneumonia

double pneumonia actually….

 

[Cossie]

I will increase my cba shares.

 

[coriander]

I'm watching MQG (prefer their diverse income streams cf "big 4"), COH, SHL, NDQ for buying opportunities.

 

[jakeseven7]

It's more than the corona virus.The fall in oil price is going to have major repercussions in the US with marginal companies in the fracking business unlikely to survive and the flow on to bank liabilities.Could get really ugly.
Of course the fall in oil price isn't a major problem for Australia but if the USA sneezes we can catch pneumonia.

Not necessarily if China ends up pumping $$$ into a corona recovery plan, because if China is on speed we also follow. The GFC suffered by the US greatly didn't exactly destroy AU.

 

[VPS]

Who is your favourite online stockbroker in Australia and why

 

[coriander]

Selfwealth.
$9.50 flat fee for any trade, regardless of size. I've used them for past 12-18 months and found them efficient and accurate. ASX only, no OS (I use Stake for US purchases).

 

[Long_20]

I'm watching MQG (prefer their diverse income streams cf "big 4"), COH, SHL, NDQ for buying opportunities.

I've been getting into NDQ recently. Also watching MQG and COH

Post automatically merged: Mar 12, 2020

Not necessarily if China ends up pumping $$$ into a corona recovery plan, because if China is on speed we also follow. The GFC suffered by the US greatly didn't exactly destroy AU.

If the official numbers are to be believed, it looks like cases in China have about peaked

 

[I love to travel]

In another thread someone mentioned that maybe the Stock Exchange should close for a while. Would this create more panic when it reopened? It does seem weird though when I look at the Dow futures and it's down 5.5% and my reaction is not surprised. A month ago 2% was considered huge in the current market.

 

[moa999]

The US market has a number of 15min stops built in.
Don't believe the ASX does these days.

But if there are way more sellers than buyers, the price falls - nature of the market

 

[ja1]

So I had a look and the ASX200 is now a bit over 25% down from the peak a couple of months ago.

AUD is still at $0.64 (which is not radically different to $0.67 a couple of months ago.. )

Please don't forget that in a falling market there are a bunch of people also making money so it isn't everyone losing money.. (and some of those people making money are doing it using money from super funds and so on.. )

If you had kids and money invested in a cash interesting bearing account for their future I would be thinking long and hard about how to put that money into an ETF or some other index fund with a view that a modest amount invested at this point would get an amazing kick with the market rebound (over time) coupled with compound returns..

If you could have bought post GFC the ABC infographic was showing that returns from 2009 - 2020 were approx 351%..

 

[ja1]

It's more than the corona virus.The fall in oil price is going to have major repercussions in the US with marginal companies in the fracking business unlikely to survive and the flow on to bank liabilities.Could get really ugly.
Of course the fall in oil price isn't a major problem for Australia but if the USA sneezes we can catch pneumonia.

Having travelled around a couple of the parts of the US that are oil producing areas (e.g. Oklahoma being one..) and chatting to people who live there and who work in the industry at some level..

The marketplace for production is surprisingly diverse. Yes there are a bunch of people who will be affected and this might be exploration or services.. but there are a lot of wells producing there that are turned on when the price is high and turned off when it isn't. It's not all fracking based production (though there's certainly a lot more of it in OK than there used to be!)

And these things move in circles. Oil prices falling causes a drop in supply and in exploration and down the track a bit as demand picks up again this causes investment in more supply and exploration (as existing wells are pumped out..).

I'd be more interested in the fallout between Saudi and Russia if the speculation that the Saudis need oil to be at US$85 a barrel and playing chicken with the Russians is driving oil down to a quarter of that..

Brent/WTI is an average of $35/barrel at the moment..

 

[coriander]

OT, but I've just finished reading "Blowout" by Rachel Maddow - a fascinating yet depressing history of the US oil industry and its absolute power over governments state, federal and international as well as its links to Russia and Putin (and linked with names such as Rex "Trump is a cough*ing moron" Tillerson", former CEO of Exxon/Mobil).