AFF Member Stock Discussion

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Oil is tanking big time in the $11 barrel mark. Starting to feel some disquietude and another round of selloffs may be impending.

 

[cove]

Trump claimed to have fixed the oil price plunge just a few days ago......

 

[earlyriser]

With all that went on with oil overnight, how did the US not drop further?

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Trump claimed to have fixed the oil price plunge just a few days ago......

Politicians can only directly tweak the supply side of the equation. With economies in lockdown, demand is nonexistent causing oil to literally overflow from storage pipelines.

With all that went on with oil overnight, how did the US not drop further?

From what I understand, most of the carnage relates to the May contract which is expiring so those with open positions got caught out by those trading physical oil paying others to take that oil off their hands. Further dated contracts are still trading in the $20s. Stimulus and corona slowdown appear to be driving sentiment with earnings have a muted impact as the numbers are largely meaningless.

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Just to add, Brent futures which are the European benchmark only moved 5% to $27. It seems to all be about delivery. Brent can shipped to offshore storage whereas WTI (West Texas) is stored only at Cushing in Oklahoma causing the storage squeeze.

 

[burmans]

Trump claimed to have fixed the oil price plunge just a few days ago......

Sorry, this is not the humour forum.....

 

[Dr Ralph]

CBA under $60 again. Great buying in my view.

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

CBA under $60 again. Great buying in my view.

**Not sure if this post will duplicate

Prima facie there seems to be value here but the way banks are valued will have to change. There are some serious prevailing headwinds including low interest rates for longer, globally banks taking huge bad debt provisions and pressure from regulators and governments to reduce or defer dividends that will hamper prices from getting back to all time highs. The big 4 will always be there but apart from capitalising on short term price movements, there are better yield (if dividends get reduced ) and capital growth plays out there IMO.

 

[tgh]

there are better yield (if dividends get reduced ) and capital growth plays out there IMO

such as ?

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

there are better yield (if dividends get reduced ) and capital growth plays out there IMO

such as ?

Individual stock selection is a tricky task but just to give you an idea of what I mean

1) yield: on a blended forward 12 month dividend yield CBA makes an appearance in the 120s of the members of the All Ords

2) capital growth: since 22 April 2015, the big 4 banks have had shocking total returns (growth including dividends) relative to the index (at best -20% underperformance)
All Ords: +19.16%
CBA: - 4.04%
ANZ: -32.21%
NAB: -37.84%
WBC: -30.07%

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance but sure does give you an idea of how poorly these have performed and how well the rest of the index has done given financials make up 25% of the index.

Over the above same period BHP has done 51%, Woolworth has done 60%, Brambes has done 17% and CSL has done 260%

 

[Dr Ralph]

Individual stock selection is a tricky task but just to give you an idea of what I mean

1) yield: on a blended forward 12 month dividend yield CBA makes an appearance in the 120s of the members of the All Ords

2) capital growth: since 22 April 2015, the big 4 banks have had shocking total returns (growth including dividends) relative to the index (at best -20% underperformance)
All Ords: +19.16%
CBA: - 4.04%
ANZ: -32.21%
NAB: -37.84%
WBC: -30.07%

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance but sure does give you an idea of how poorly these have performed and how well the rest of the index has done given financials make up 25% of the index.

Over the above same period BHP has done 51%, Woolworth has done 60%, Brambes has done 17% and CSL has done 260%

So banks definitely due for a rebound then!

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

If mean reversion holds true then yes potentially but if the forces impede that then these prices may be the new normal. No one knows what the future holds, your trading and allocation decisions all depend on your horizon and objective.

 

[cove]

I held my hand up for Ramsay shares.

 

[Dr Ralph]

I held my hand up for Ramsay shares.

Wonder what the price will collapse to when the trading halt is lifted.

Capital raising for QBE has hammered their share price.

 

[Quattro]

Great day. After a shocking week last week. Went in on OPY and CAR about two weeks ago.

OPY up 23.9% today.

Interestingly CSL struggled.. Down 2%
APT still surging almost back to its record high with a 10% gain. The one that got away for me.

 

[burmans]

Capital raising for QBE has hammered their share price.

Looking much better today!

 

[cove]

I received refunds from Webjet when I applied for extra shares. It was too good.
Very big day today so maybe tomorrow will be the reverse.
The idea of having $500 of shares in companies that might do a $30,000 share purchase plan might work out ok If you do it in multiple names.

 

[burmans]

I received refunds from Webjet when I applied for extra shares. It was too good.

As did I, I've done well out of them even though the last two months have been a shocker. Sold a number today too so it was a good day.

 

[cove]

Now NAB want to do an issue which does look cheap enough. I am feeling that my pocket is getting raided by a few businesses that want to cover some of their mistakes.
Kogan has a very ordinary complaints handling but their shares and products have gone very well.

 

[Freq Flier 2013]

I was able to get some nab shares early but got scaled back a lot.