AFF Member Stock Discussion

[cove]

We don’t follow QUAL sorry. Chart looks ok.

 

[cove]

I spent a couple of hours reading the Judo Capital 2024 annual report. I wish they would report quarterly.154 pages is a big read. Their earnings per share was just over 6 cents per share and was a little lower than in 2023.No dividend after 5 years.

 

[Brissy1]

I spent a couple of hours reading the Judo Capital 2024 annual report. I wish they would report quarterly.154 pages is a big read. Their earnings per share was just over 6 cents per share and was a little lower than in 2023.No dividend after 5 years.

Looked at Judo a year ago as an anti cyclical buy, but wasn't comfortable buying into a small business lender in an economic downturn. I remember even WBC almost went under in 1990s (had to raise capital @$3/ share).
Missed the boat now.
A big consideration is whether bad debt provisions are realistic. Just can't know.

 

[drron]

WBC was a lot worse in 1974. fell to less than $1. my father loaded up and did very well. Though there was a lot of commentary about them going under.

 

[cove]

Yes Judo Capital JDO made less in the second half of last financial year so that is why we haven’t bought too many.
I did buy Westpac at $2.80 and $3.00 in the 1990 crunch for them as they were our main business bank for over 40 years. Westpac is up more than 10 times from that episode with their near death experience.We still hold Westpac.
Judo is trying for a Net Interest Margin approaching 3.0 and their loans in arrears were 2.3% of total loans. Net profit after tax was about 69 million so it is tiny compared with the big 5 banks in Australia. If they get to $15 billion in loans with less loan losses their profit could more thadouble.
What I didn’t like was the top dogs salaries so I will be wanting to go to their AGM in 2025.
The top 20 shareholders hold over 80% of the shares on issue.

 

[Brissy1]

Yes Judo Capital JDO made less in the second half of last financial year so that is why we haven’t bought too many.
I did buy Westpac at $2.80 and $3.00 in the 1990 crunch for them as they were our main business bank for over 40 years. Westpac is up more than 10 times from that episode with their near death experience.We still hold Westpac.
Judo is trying for a Net Interest Margin approaching 3.0 and their loans in arrears were 2.3% of total loans. Net profit after tax was about 69 million so it is tiny compared with the big 5 banks in Australia. If they get to $15 billion in loans with less loan losses their profit could more thadouble.
What I didn’t like was the top dogs salaries so I will be wanting to go to their AGM in 2025.
The top 20 shareholders hold over 80% of the shares on issue.

That's interesting.
-Net Interest Margin about 1% higher than big 4, but quality of their loan book in order to get that higher margin??
-But, Loans in arrears about 1% higher (although not sure if that's comparing apples with apples),
-Lowering interest rates might reduce margins for all the banks, but for Judo might improve/lessen arrears... that's the cake.

Might do well, personally not buying as there is no way I can know the quality of their loans or validity of their provisions.

 

[Kerrodt]

That's interesting.
-Net Interest Margin about 1% higher than big 4, but quality of their loan book in order to get that higher margin??
-But, Loans in arrears about 1% higher (although not sure if that's comparing apples with apples),
-Lowering interest rates might reduce margins for all the banks, but for Judo might improve/lessen arrears... that's the cake.

Might do well, personally not buying as there is no way I can know the quality of their loans or validity of their provisions.

On your first two points I don’t think you’re comparing apples with apples.

Judo is a business bank only lender. No retail/consumer so no home loans. No corporate/big end of town lending.

Retail lending in the big 4 banks is predominantly home loans at much lower NIM and arrears% than a business banking division.

Corporate lending is also on pretty thin NIM compared to a business bank lending book.

Therefore, I’d expect Judo to have a higher NIM% when compared to the big 4 at a top line level.

 

[I love to travel]

Mods: this is an economic not political post
Two questions:
1. What do people think the Dow Jones will tomorrow which is the last day before the inaguration of Trump.
2. What do people think wiill happen post inaguration?

Yes it is a crystal ball but genuinely interested in what people think might happen

 

[Quickstatus]

What do people think of BKW? If the non cash property revaluation taken out they would have made a profit.

 

[cove]

BKW are facing a gas crisis /shortage/ price problem but we have them and don’t want to sell. This is a long term business being messed around by whoever is in charge of getting gas to market.

 

[Quickstatus]

BKW are facing a gas crisis /shortage/ price problem

Cheaper to Import from US

Can the energy regulator AEMO shut down the kilns?

 

[tgh]

Masonry is really a historic building product that will reduce to a niche product over time
Building with bricks is labour intensive and consumes a lot of energy in production.
Compared to…Pipelines carry gas and will continue to do so, Freeways carry cars and will continue to do so, grocers will continue to feed people..

 

[cove]

At the moment we have Australians trying to stop gas projects around Australia.
Suggest you go to BKW AGM to find out what the newish CEO is doing to make the company successful. Don’t know if importing would work with the $AUD in the doldrums.

 

[SydneySwan]

Mods: this is an economic not political post
Two questions:
1. What do people think the Dow Jones will tomorrow which is the last day before the inaguration of Trump.
2. What do people think wiill happen post inaguration?

So you want an economic forecast based on a political change?

I have no idea what the Dow will do tonight.

Post Jan 20, if Trump imposes the tariffs he has promised then I expect world stock markets to head gradually downwards, led by the Chinese markets and then the US markets which with their leadership role will drag the rest of the first world markets down as well. I expect there is a good chance a severe bout of inflation could follow and world trade will contract.

 

[I love to travel]

So you want an economic forecast based on a political change?

I have no idea what the Dow will do tonight.

Post Jan 20, if Trump imposes the tariffs he has promised then I expect world stock markets to head gradually downwards, led by the Chinese markets and then the US markets which with their leadership role will drag the rest of the first world markets down as well. I expect there is a good chance a severe bout of inflation could follow and world trade will contract.

This is my inkling as well..maybe some buying opportunities coming up

 

[Quickstatus]

Yes Ive read the newish CEO's AGM comments

Building with bricks is labour intensive and consumes a lot of energy in production.

There are new cladding systems using thin bricks that BKW is involved in

 

[tgh]

IMO...The present price of the dow has already considered all likely ramifications of political change .
History says that the new president makes a lot of noise to titillate the pigeons but is very pragmatic when the chips are down.
I expect the market to roll on….

 

[prozac]

So you want an economic forecast based on a political change?

I have no idea what the Dow will do tonight.

Post Jan 20, if Trump imposes the tariffs he has promised then I expect world stock markets to head gradually downwards, led by the Chinese markets and then the US markets which with their leadership role will drag the rest of the first world markets down as well. I expect there is a good chance a severe bout of inflation could follow and world trade will contract.

Trump says alot of contentious stuff to set the tone for negotiation. It is a tool and not necessarily fact, and it works. Look it's got a reaction from you @SydneySwan and so it achieved the desired result. Just like the statement he will buy Greenland has already elicited a meeting with the Greenland PM who says Greenland is not for sale, but now they are talking and perhaps it will lead to some other political agreement.
Tariffs are not a foregone conclusion.

 

[MARTINE]

The dogs keep barking whilst the caravan moves on..

 

[SydneySwan]

Trump says alot of contentious stuff to set the tone for negotiation. It is a tool and not necessarily fact, and it works. Look it's got a reaction from you @SydneySwan and so it achieved the desired result.

Post Jan 20, if Trump imposes the tariffs he has promised then I expect world stock markets to head gradually downwards, led by the Chinese markets and then the US markets which with their leadership role will drag the rest of the first world markets down as well. I expect there is a good chance a severe bout of inflation could follow and world trade will contract.

@prozac I was responding to @I love to travel not Trump. Of all the multitude of random promises Trump made during his election campaign, the one that is most likely to impact stock markets is the potential imposition of tariffs. I prefaced my statement with 'if'. I have no idea if he will impose these tariffs but if he does I stand by my comments.