AFF Member Stock Discussion

[burmans]

Mods: this is an economic not political post
Two questions:
1. What do people think the Dow Jones will tomorrow which is the last day before the inaguration of Trump.
2. What do people think wiill happen post inaguration?

Yes it is a crystal ball but genuinely interested in what people think might happen

There is an old adage with stocks of buy the rumour, sell the news. I’d regard a lot of what Trump has said as rumours, who knows what actually happen but IMO it’s unlikely that he will do (and/or be able to do) everything he has ‘promised’ so the news may not meet the extended expectations.

 

[Freq Flier 2013]

There is an old adage with stocks of buy the rumour, sell the news. I’d regard a lot of what Trump has said as rumours, who knows what actually happen but IMO it’s unlikely that he will do (and/or be able to do) everything he has ‘promised’ so the news may not meet the extended expectations.

One would think that the mass deportation of illegal workers will mean that labour costs will go up in USA (like Australia during COVID) resulting in higher inflation.
But on the other hand with USA no min wages in some sectors it might not mean anything??

 

[burmans]

Well the head of the Federal Reserve has said he expects Trump policies to keep inflation high(er) and hence interest rates won’t drop much from here. I see no reason to disbelieve him.

 

[MARTINE]

There is an old adage with stocks of buy the rumour, sell the news. I’d regard a lot of what Trump has said as rumours, who knows what actually happen but IMO it’s unlikely that he will do (and/or be able to do) everything he has ‘promised’ so the news may not meet the extended expectations.

I think his economic decisions will be made in the certainty that his besties (Musk etc) will get the best outcomes ie richer

 

[TheRealTMA]

LOL.

 

[cove]

The US market is taking quite a hit tonight.

 

[Pushka]

The US market is taking quite a hit tonight.

Nvidia and the birth of a chipless AI system in China.

 

[serfty]

Nvidia and the birth of a chipless AI system in China.

Not so much "chipless", but this DeepSeek apparently is more cost-effective in its use of expensive Nvidia chips that it had been assumed were generally necessary for decent AI.

 

[tgh]

The A1 hype reads to me as a new tulip variety ……

 

[Pushka]

Not so much "chipless", but this DeepSeek apparently is more cost-effective in its use of expensive Nvidia chips that it had been assumed were generally necessary for decent AI.

Maybe they used ChatGPT to invent it! .

USA had banned the release of the Nvidia chip to China. Where there's a will there's a way.

ChatGPT response:
Yes, DeepSeek utilizes Nvidia chips in its AI models. Notably, their V3 model was developed using just over 2,000 Nvidia chips, a stark contrast to the tens of thousands typically required by other AI models. This efficiency has raised questions about the necessity of extensive investments in high-end AI infrastructure.

I was waiting for ChatGPT to explode on me or ban me

 

[Mr_Orange]

The US market is taking quite a hit tonight.

Currently -56 points between open and close on the S&P500 futures, so it's not disastrous. After 9 up days in a row though....

 

[Kerrodt]

DeepSeek has apparently been hardwired trained to parrot the CCP line on matters like Taiwan and Tiananmen Square. This is not good at all. Why would anyone trust DeepSeek at all if this is how it is starting out?

Of course - any chip and/or AI model can have any sort of bias hardwired into it.....something to ponder really.

 

[SydneySwan]

Currently -56 points between open and close on the S&P500 futures, so it's not disastrous. After 9 up days in a row though....

ASX flat or slightly positive now. Australia's economy is built on real intelligence rather than the 'artificial' stuff.

 

[Mr_Orange]

DeepSeek has apparently been hardwired trained to parrot the CCP line on matters like Taiwan and Tiananmen Square. This is not good at all. Why would anyone trust DeepSeek at all if this is how it is starting out?

Of course - any chip and/or AI model can have any sort of bias hardwired into it.....something to ponder really.

Given that the western AI systems are trained on the main stream media and what gets parroted on social media, I would expect a bias in those too.

 

[tgh]

Repurposing history is currently in fashion and its not just China ; everyone is doing it

 

[Kerrodt]

Given that the western AI systems are trained on the main stream media and what gets parroted on social media, I would expect a bias in those too.

I agree.....anyone who builds these models could have them telling us that they sky is green, the moon is made of cheese (probably a creamy Camembert) and that pigs really really do fly. And once we get to the ridiculous point where we actually start relying on these things for anything meaningful then we are all in trouble.

(As an aside, I grew up in a very small country town in Central Queensland - a place 99% of the population have never heard of. Out of curiosity I recently asked ChatGPT to write me a poem about this town. And it did. A nice little poem that had some facts right, but also telling me that this little town was renowned for gold mining - which it never has been. That sold me on the issues with AI models and how trustful and reliable they aren't.)

 

[cove]

Today we sold lots of CBA shares.

 

[tgh]

I attempted to sell some at the 161 peak over xmas but the b_broker was on holidays !!!..we have left a sell order in the system @161

 

[cove]

Have kept 2,000 CBA shares. Now we have to invest a chunk into something good.

 

[burmans]

Given that the western AI systems are trained on the main stream media and what gets parroted on social media, I would expect a bias in those too.

No question there is, it’s actually pretty well documented!