Air China considering CX acquisition (potential oneworld exit to *A?)

[muppet]

And if they succumb to pressure, it is all because of money. So be it. HK is Chinese now and they can do want they want to integrate it into their society. And what is a standard Chinese city? Rightly or wrongly that is the CCP's prerogative. You may not think it is kosher and that is your opinion and I respect that.

Not just opinion, also Chinese Law that has been set aside by ignoring the Sino-British Joint Declaration.

 

[exmc]

If CX leaves Oneworld this will be disastrous for the alliance. China Southern is a terrible airline in service onboard and on ground (I speak with lots of experience). Plus a diminished route network compared to CX because the Mainland slots are divided among the big 3 - CZ, CA and MU. Only upside to CZ are the prices for long haul and that they fly to Moscow as an European destination...

CX loss of expat pilots really stems from a drastic cut in expat packages for overseas pilots than because of the political situation in Hong Kong. The cut of allowances especially the housing allowance was really the dealbreaker especially in HK with sky high property prices. From CX perspective, they will say they are more aligned with the cost base of Singapore after cutting pilot packages by 40%. Their long term strategy would probably to train more local HK pilots (who are trained in Australia!) but they lack senior pilots which is a killer.

 

[tomlee1986]

If CX leaves Oneworld this will be disastrous for the alliance. China Southern is a terrible airline in service onboard and on ground (I speak with lots of experience). Plus a diminished route network compared to CX because the Mainland slots are divided among the big 3 - CZ, CA and MU. Only upside to CZ are the prices for long haul and that they fly to Moscow as an European destination...

CX loss of expat pilots really stems from a drastic cut in expat packages for overseas pilots than because of the political situation in Hong Kong. The cut of allowances especially the housing allowance was really the dealbreaker especially in HK with sky high property prices. From CX perspective, they will say they are more aligned with the cost base of Singapore after cutting pilot packages by 40%. Their long term strategy would probably to train more local HK pilots (who are trained in Australia!) but they lack senior pilots which is a killer.

i agree that it has to do with the cut on the expat packages as well. The training of the local pilots is a good thing, but this is not going to solve the issue for 3 years according to local pilot union in hk. how to regain the recently retired pilots is the key to solve this crisis in the short term, but this wont be easy!

 

[exmc]

i agree that it has to do with the cut on the expat packages as well. The training of the local pilots is a good thing, but this is not going to solve the issue for 3 years according to local pilot union in hk. how to regain the recently retired pilots is the key to solve this crisis in the short term, but this wont be easy!

Yep, they're screwed unless the ramp up their compensation packages by a lot. CX is only really constrained by pilots and cabin crew now on their growth with some very good demand figures across the board with many routes having not restarted yet (i.e ADL).

 

[tomlee1986]

Yep, they're screwed unless the ramp up their compensation packages by a lot. CX is only really constrained by pilots and cabin crew now on their growth with some very good demand figures across the board with many routes having not restarted yet (i.e ADL).

ADL demand is there but i dont know how many to sustain a regular service to it. Not sure if they can ramp up the Perth frequency or via East coast services

 

[drron]

If CX leaves Oneworld this will be disastrous for the alliance. China Southern is a terrible airline in service onboard and on ground (I speak with lots of experience). Plus a diminished route network compared to CX because the Mainland slots are divided among the big 3 - CZ, CA and MU. Only upside to CZ are the prices for long haul and that they fly to Moscow as an European destination...

CX loss of expat pilots really stems from a drastic cut in expat packages for overseas pilots than because of the political situation in Hong Kong. The cut of allowances especially the housing allowance was really the dealbreaker especially in HK with sky high property prices. From CX perspective, they will say they are more aligned with the cost base of Singapore after cutting pilot packages by 40%. Their long term strategy would probably to train more local HK pilots (who are trained in Australia!) but they lack senior pilots which is a killer.

The senior expat pilots I know left more than 10 years ago because they could see the writing on the Wall. Standards had already slipped and a remuneration package had nothing to do with their decision.

 

[tomlee1986]

The senior expat pilots I know left more than 10 years ago because they could see the writing on the Wall. Standards had already slipped and a remuneration package had nothing to do with their decision.

Now is 2024 - 10 years ago is 2014, and long BEFORE HK had gone down hill, These pilots are already quitting? I like to know out of curiosity what prompted them to say writing is on the wall?

 

[jase05]

Now is 2024 - 10 years ago is 2014, and long BEFORE HK had gone down hill, These pilots are already quitting? I like to know out of curiosity what prompted them to say writing is on the wall?

I think most people knew the direction HK was heading years ago. Friends that lived there and businesses we dealt with all packed up and moved over a decade ago.

 

[drron]

Now is 2024 - 10 years ago is 2014, and long BEFORE HK had gone down hill, These pilots are already quitting? I like to know out of curiosity what prompted them to say writing is on the wall?

Exactly as Jase05 relates. They both said CX management was being pushed by the Chinese government. Safety was taking a back seat.

You need to look up what happened at CX in July 2001. 49 pilots half of them Captains received a notice at home that they were fired. no warning given. Widely seen by others at CX to be the Chinese pushing for it. One of the 2 I talk to actually accepted voluntary redundancy at the end of 2002.
There is a book written by one of the 49ers.

The 49ers: The True Story

The remarkable story of the Cathay Pacific pilots who t…

www.goodreads.com

 

[exmc]

Exactly as Jase05 relates. They both said CX management was being pushed by the Chinese government. Safety was taking a back seat.

You need to look up what happened at CX in July 2001. 49 pilots half of them Captains received a notice at home that they were fired. no warning given. Widely seen by others at CX to be the Chinese pushing for it. One of the 2 I talk to actually accepted voluntary redundancy at the end of 2002.
There is a book written by one of the 49ers.

The 49ers: The True Story

The remarkable story of the Cathay Pacific pilots who t…

www.goodreads.com

I suspect this blame it on the Chinese government is exactly the sort of thing that Swire would want us to believe. It isn't hard to come to the conclusion that Swire wanted the labour disagreements to come to a head and then resorting to the disgraceful illegal actions that they took. Noting that in 2001, CX was a non-event for China with Air China investment coming much later.

The real problem at CX is really the Swire system of management, its opaque to many but those in the know will understand that a lot of problems have been bred out of it.

 

[drron]

Sorry but you are wrong. The Chinese bought into CX first in 1992.

China buys share in Cathay Pacific - UPI Archives

China's government airline and its tourism organization have purchased a 10 percent share in Hong Kong's flag carrier, Cathay Pacific, from the Hong Kong and...

www.upi.com

They increased it in 1996. Plus 2 other Chinese firms brought in then and Swire's interest reduced from 52% to 44%
The pilot who left in 2002 was one of the most senior Captains left and he was in no doubt it was the decision of the Chinese Government. He also thought the quality of the CX service was going downhill even before the 2001 debacle.

 

[tomlee1986]

@drron @exmc not exactly off topic here but CX just released their 2023 annual results yesterday! https://www.cathaypacific.com/conte...ements/en/2023_cx_results_announcement_en.pdf

 

[docjames]

From a ”One China” point of view, taking over complete control (+/- rebranding…..) of a very identifiable HK business makes complete sense.

Where that leads in terms of *A, OW etc is less material to the owners, but obviously of consideration for customers. Decisions may not be made on a capitalist model - rebranding would carry some “non-commercial” considerations for potential new owners.

 

[OATEK]

Today's article in the OZ suggests that confidence in HK is fragile given the new laws:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/hong-kong-passes-new-national-security-law/news-story/a336ff4e580b9e0e64f6efe4d632642b

While the HK officials try their hardest to convince foreign business interests that the laws should not affect them or their staff, there has been a major shift away to places like SIN. So "One China" and a complete takeover of CX will just confirm to many who previously travelled to or transited via HKG that there are better and safer alternatives. This IMO puts CX on a further downward trajectory.

 

[tomlee1986]

Today's article in the OZ suggests that confidence in HK is fragile given the new laws:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/hong-kong-passes-new-national-security-law/news-story/a336ff4e580b9e0e64f6efe4d632642b

While the HK officials try their hardest to convince foreign business interests that the laws should not affect them or their staff, there has been a major shift away to places like SIN. So "One China" and a complete takeover of CX will just confirm to many who previously travelled to or transited via HKG that there are better and safer alternatives. This IMO puts CX on a further downward trajectory.

it is completely gone after article 23 passed to law... even less people will want to go to HKG NOW!

 

[Buggbear]

Not just opinion, also Chinese Law that has been set aside by ignoring the Sino-British Joint Declaration.

What do you know about the Sino-British Joint Declaration? Please educate me. I don't know what it is and what is it that has been ignored?

Too much "I heard", "he said" with no concrete proof but all contributed as "facts" for argument or discussion.

Back it up with some substance or you are in danger of speaking true to your moniker.

 

[drron]

What do you know about the Sino-British Joint Declaration? Please educate me. I don't know what it is and what is it that has been ignored?

Too much "I heard", "he said" with no concrete proof but all contributed as "facts" for argument or discussion.

Back it up with some substance or you are in danger of speaking true to your moniker.

Easy to find out. When Britain handed Hong Kong it was agreed to keep most of the Status Quo for 50 years. That is until 2047. The Chinese changed that within 20 years tearing up the agreement. Trusting the word of the Chinese Government is an exercise in stupidity.

Sino-British Joint Declaration - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Buggbear]

Easy to find out. When Britain handed Hong Kong it was agreed to keep most of the Status Quo for 50 years. That is until 2047. The Chinese changed that within 20 years tearing up the agreement. Trusting the word of the Chinese Government is an exercise in stupidity.

Sino-British Joint Declaration - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Easy to find out? You are really gullible. Anyone can edit wikipedia. Anyway assuming wiki is 100% correct, I have no intention to waste my time to read something that is written in such way that NO ONE, including Legislation professionals, can understand.
Everything is put in grey areas subject to interpretation to whoever is reading.
What is specifically written in the 50 years agreement that has been broken? As you indicated "most of the Status Quo for 50 years". Do you know every points in the agreement? Don't be so simplistic. Whatever was agreed on was what could be beneficial to either party with so many clauses that I don't think you would be even close to understanding. Not even close to your league mate.
AND don't get me going on your so called insider knowledge of CX. My friend Putin is online.

 

[tdimdad]

Easy to find out? You are really gullible. Anyone can edit wikipedia. Anyway assuming wiki is 100% correct, I have no intention to waste my time to read something that is written in such way that NO ONE, including Legislation professionals, can understand.
Everything is put in grey areas subject to interpretation to whoever is reading.
What is specifically written in the 50 years agreement that has been broken? As you indicated "most of the Status Quo for 50 years". Do you know every points in the agreement? Don't be so simplistic. Whatever was agreed on was what could be beneficial to either party with so many clauses that I don't think you would be even close to understanding. Not even close to your league mate.
AND don't get me going on your so called insider knowledge of CX. My friend Putin is online.

Did you even check that Wikipedia article, please? You might be interested in arguing the references #56 onward where the real meat of the article is. If you do successfully counter-argue those, you would do a service by potentially enhancing the brainspace of those who want to try understand the matter.

 

[muppet]

What do you know about the Sino-British Joint Declaration? Please educate me. I don't know what it is and what is it that has been ignored?

Too much "I heard", "he said" with no concrete proof but all contributed as "facts" for argument or discussion.

Back it up with some substance or you are in danger of speaking true to your moniker.

Well maybe if you had a look you would know, the big one for most would be this:



It would be hard to deny that China is no longer honouring that commitment with respect to the Special Administrative Region.

The full declaration lodged with the UN is here: https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume 1399/v1399.pdf

Page 68 has what China agreed to.