markis10
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The assumptions are:
- that spending in December is only 1/12 of yearly spending
- that the accounts are all personal accounts, and that the number of accounts are spread evenly over the number of people who are eligible to hold one.
- That only 1/3rd of persons eligible by age hold accounts. Where is your data that only 5 million individuals hold cards? The RBA doesn't have the abililty to collect that kind of data AFAIK - they only have aggregate account statistics without unique identifying features - and it's certainly not in the census.
And ultimately, saying 'the average card spend is' is different to 'the average card-holder spends x' which is *completely* different to saying 'the average Australian spends x on credit cards'.
Thanks for clarifying your thoughts on the assumptions made, my calcs were fairly quick and dont separate business from personal as its all the accounts in Australia which number 12.7M as of Jan 2010. The December figure is high, however it averages $750 a month over the year for every person if you take a rolling month average.
The card holder numbers can be drawn from the census data in terms of household debt levels and household makeup, I dont think 5m is that far off the mark.
Its quite possible that the particular bank manager works for a bank that does not have low limit cards, like the NAB Unit Student scheme, so in fact he may see an average spend in his sample that does not match the general population, but relating credit card spend to average weekly earnings is also flawed.
To be quite frank, the fact that every man woman and child spends $750 on a credit card every month on a rolling 12 month average indicates the mean spend per cardholder must be high, whatever the real figure is there is no doubt its big business for the stake holders.