Article: Latest Changes May Not Fix Qantas’ Reward Availability Problem

But these anecdotes aren't supported by data. The number of points redeemed annually has increased by 10% in the last year and 27% since 2019. The number of members has increased similarly.
Is this points redeemed on flights, or simply points redeemed? I note in your analysis you've pointed out that points redeemed per member has remained pretty stable since 2019, which makes perfect sense - your stats are right.

But if members are not able to redeem for Classic Rewards, they'll end up spending their points on other products (points+pay, C+, or non-flight products). From this, I don't get how the statistic of "points redeemed per member is similar" can be used refute the premise that there isn't enough Classic Reward availability. The fact that there are more points redeemed in the program overall also doesn't really refute that, for the same reasons. I'm sure there's many people who have points sitting in the account, who want to use them for flights - but they couldn't find availability, so they burned them on a non-Classic Reward redemption. It wouldn't change any of the stats you mention, but it still doesn't mean they found Classic Reward availability.

I just don't think there is enough conclusive evidence, number based or otherwise, to go beyond the anecdotal. Mainly because Qantas won't ever release a proper breakdown. As someone who stares at the Qantas website for multiple hours at least three days a week, I'd personally say I'm seeing less availability than before. Of course, this is purely anecdotal and not backed up by statistics.

Is it impossible to find availability? Definitely not, and I make the program work for me. But I'm also definitely not representative of the average traveller and it would be ridiculous for me to say that it works for everyone as a result.
 
I've just realised how outrageously different the new CR+ forced upon program will be for my scenario and how I use my QFF points.

Before with CR: SYD to DFW return Business was 253,000 + $800 in taxes. 506k and $1,600 for my wife and I total.

New age: CR+ is 2,500,00 total for two passangers and $2,800 in taxes. Literally 5x more expensive now. 😐

Even premium economy in CR+ is ~950,000 points! So double, for a lower class.

Quite unbelievable.
 
I've just realised how outrageously different the new CR+ forced upon program will be for my scenario and how I use my QFF points.

Before with CR: SYD to DFW return Business was 253,000 + $800 in taxes. 506k and $1,600 for my wife and I total.

New age: CR+ is 2,500,00 total for two passangers and $2,800 in taxes. Literally 5x more expensive now. 😐

Even premium economy in CR+ is ~950,000 points! So double, for a lower class.

Quite unbelievable.
Except CR+ will vary with the cash price at the time. In some scenarios, the CR+ points are less than a CR during a Sale.

BUT AFAIK, no such situation has manifested for flights to the US. So far, only sale fares to NZ (probably because TT CRs in J are disproportionately expensive)….
 
Article From AFR: Three ways to win with Qantas’ frequent flyer overhaul.
Qantas frequent flyers will need to spend more points to travel than they used to – the main takeaway from the airline’s overhaul of its loyalty program, announced last week.

Of course, any program built on loyalty does well to offset the sour with the sweet. And this latest shake-up comes with a few wins to make the losses more palatable.

o_O One could see this in the rearview mirror miles away, but I am still surprised. Points are just a little more worthless.2025-01-31_04-12-12.jpg2025-01-31_04-11-57.jpg

1 No More Tier caps: a Platinum member flying in a business class seat from Sydney to Los Angeles will now earn 25,594 points in the sky, up from 21,375.
2. Finnair, Air France, KLM and Iberia will expand to offer premium economy reward tickets for the first time. Members will also say aloha to Classic Reward seats on the Hawaiian airline.
3. Classic Reward seats are released 353 days in advance to Gold frequent flyer members, 323 days out to Silver members and 297 days ahead to Bronze members at midnight GMT (11 am AEDT). - best for those in Gold.
 
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Is this points redeemed on flights, or simply points redeemed? I note in your analysis you've pointed out that points redeemed per member has remained pretty stable since 2019, which makes perfect sense - your stats are right.

But if members are not able to redeem for Classic Rewards, they'll end up spending their points on other products (points+pay, C+, or non-flight products). From this, I don't get how the statistic of "points redeemed per member is similar" can be used refute the premise that there isn't enough Classic Reward availability. The fact that there are more points redeemed in the program overall also doesn't really refute that, for the same reasons. I'm sure there's many people who have points sitting in the account, who want to use them for flights - but they couldn't find availability, so they burned them on a non-Classic Reward redemption. It wouldn't change any of the stats you mention, but it still doesn't mean they found Classic Reward availability.

I just don't think there is enough conclusive evidence, number based or otherwise, to go beyond the anecdotal. Mainly because Qantas won't ever release a proper breakdown. As someone who stares at the Qantas website for multiple hours at least three days a week, I'd personally say I'm seeing less availability than before. Of course, this is purely anecdotal and not backed up by statistics.

Is it impossible to find availability? Definitely not, and I make the program work for me. But I'm also definitely not representative of the average traveller and it would be ridiculous for me to say that it works for everyone as a result.
What difference does it make? You can earn points on non-QF activities, whether those be partner airlines or non-airline partners, so if we only look at a narrow range of redemptions should you then consider that against a narrow range of earnings? If points are fungible in earning they are fungible in spending!

In terms of what flights or rewards people are redeeming on one need to consider the opportunity cost. Some other posters argue that they're redeeming on parter airlines. A big difference between an airline offering a reward on their own metal is that they control the opportunity cost whereas they don't on a partner. People also forget that they don't control partner inventory but also that they must compensate partners when customers redeem on partners (and vice versa).

I'm not sharing that data to refute your point but simply argue that a redemptions have skyrocketed because earnings have skyrocketed because membership has skyrocketed! While we might not be getting what we were, a large number of people are being attracted to the program thereby concentrating it. Without more flights there can't be more rewards offered, hence the price increasing. The point that I'm arguing is that the inherent success via growth of QFF is outstripping supply. That's not sustainable, so prices will increase. That's the headline: too many points chasing too few goods!
 
The price increasing is simply inflation. Most points are not earned through flying, they are sold to third parties at a supposed rate of 1.1 cents per point. They are redeemed at a rate of 0.6 cents per point*. As the value of flights goes up in dollar terms, the number of points required to redeem for them must also increase.

* this value is obvious from redemptions for gift cards. I presume QF charge their loyalty department for flights. CRs would perhaps be priced at ID90 rate as distressed stock, and C+ might be charged at half retail price.
 
This is true; the airline's official operational success figures are based on these statistics.
The problem is that the statistics are mostly created in such a way that they result in high bonuses for their authors.
However, simple reality shows clearly that for some time now, getting a reward seat in premium class on an international flight has become almost impossible. This has not been the case before.
So what are we to believe in? In printed statistics figures, or in the reality we all encounter first-hand every day?
You only need to read what other program members post in the current thread.
Even the title alone leaves no doubt:
"Latest Changes May Not Fix Qantas’ Reward Availability Problem"
There is a problem. A big one.
Most active QFF loyalty program members see this clearly because they experience it directly.
How will you answer their allegations?
They must be wrong because the official statistics say otherwise?
Your experience may be such, yet 1.2 million more members signed up in the last year and earned 27 billion more miles. They've obviously found reasons to do that, which may include 16 billion more miles redeemed.

This during a period when QF's reputation has been pretty cough. The reality is that not everyone wins and those that don't are more likely to feel aggrieved about it. Every few months we hear reasons why people are going to flee en masse, yet the data show that the net impact is not that. Even worse is that the growth of the program is outstripping its ability to supply (which is bad for customers).
 
The price increasing is simply inflation. Most points are not earned through flying, they are sold to third parties at a supposed rate of 1.1 cents per point. They are redeemed at a rate of 0.6 cents per point*. As the value of flights goes up in dollar terms, the number of points required to redeem for them must also increase.

* this value is obvious from redemptions for gift cards. I presume QF charge their loyalty department for flights. CRs would perhaps be priced at ID90 rate as distressed stock, and C+ might be charged at half retail price.
More than half would be a big over estimation, but the general argument is spot-on.

Average cost per point is about 1.27 cents in FY24. We can estimate this from revenue divided by points earned ($2.573 billion divided by 202 billion). But cost per point varies significantly based on quantity and advanced purchase. It's quite common for major partners (e.g. banks) to buy upfront for significant discounts. Example, in FY23 QF reported free cash flow from loyalty at $1 billion despite EBIT being half that. Suspect this included advance payment from NAB and ANZ. This is also something that isn't often appreciated: airlines can use loyalty programs as cheap financing (Delta have exploited this!).

In terms of redemption, QF's goal is for internal to be profit neutral, not at the ticket level but that earnings and redemptions should broadly cover each other. They won't be priced at ID90 since ID90 is estimated off full fare. The challenge is that there is an opportunity cost since many redemptions (not C+) is inventory available to partners, but that helps price.

In total, loyalty has a 20% margin, meaning that the average cost of redemptions is 1.02 cents. Internal is 0% (conceptually), so one can make some guesses on the rest. If external (including partner airlines) is 50%, then that margin is 40% meaning average cost of redemption is 0.76 cents (not far off from your educated guess, although it's conceivable that the gift cards are very high margin).
 
You're talking about CR (lack of) availability as the catalyst for your points chasers to leave.

There is a large demand for premium cabin, international redemptions, originating out of Australia and it's not met by capacity

when it comes to QFF points we should now be factoring in the lack of premium seat reward availability

Interestingly, the airline has never before distributed such a massive volume of FF points to existing and prospective members so aggressively, while at the same time severely reducing the number of reward seats on its flights.
All the quotes here refer to the lack of available CR in J/F as a huge point of discontent. I wholeheartedly agree.
But QF maintains that those seats are still there AND there's now CR+. Yippee - we can all use our points!!

What the discontent is really about is that those J/F CR redemptions aren't available <now>, i.e. at the exact timing of searching.
The real beef is the random batch releasing.

Go searching tomorrow (or the next day, or the next day and month and so on) and those seats might suddenly appear.

It makes trip planning nigh on impossible if wanting CR availability. And while we wait for the next CR release which may never come (or will it? Try looking tomorrow), CR+ is visible.

I mentioned this in another thread discussing this same issue...I'm sticking with the QFF program. Cross-thread link here:
 
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All the quotes here refer to the lack of available CR in J/F as a huge point of discontent. I wholeheartedly agree.
But QF maintains that those seats are still there AND there's now CR+. Yippee - we can all use our points!!

What the discontent is really about is that those J/F CR redemptions aren't available <now>, i.e. at the exact timing of going searching.
The real beef is the random batch releasing.

Go searching tomorrow (or the next day, or the next day and month and so on) and those seats might suddenly appear.

It makes trip planning nigh on impossible if wanting CR availability. And while we wait for the next CR release which may never come (or will it? Try looking tomorrow), CR+ is visible.

I mentioned this in another thread discussing this same issue...I'm sticking with the QFF program. Cross-thread link here:
I agree, the random nature of CR releases makes it harder to plan well ahead.

But I have never booked at 353days as I found that way too far ahead, both in my working career, and even now in semi-retirement.

My overall take out of the recent comments above is that there will be different drivers for different QFFers, and I think a major defection from QFF is not in the offing. What the turnover rate is at the moment is probably impossible to assess, but the continuing increases in members/points earned does not suggest imminent demise.

A DSC offer as we emerged from the pandemic got me to WP, and this year I will slip back to SG, so seeking the release of seats in my planning window will cease. I will then totally re-assess where I go, but don't feel particularly aggrieved about the changes. I will of course look at CRs when planning, usually about 180 days out but there are other options around positioning flights etc.
 
Is this points redeemed on flights, or simply points redeemed? I note in your analysis you've pointed out that points redeemed per member has remained pretty stable since 2019, which makes perfect sense - your stats are right.

But if members are not able to redeem for Classic Rewards, they'll end up spending their points on other products (points+pay, C+, or non-flight products). From this, I don't get how the statistic of "points redeemed per member is similar" can be used refute the premise that there isn't enough Classic Reward availability. The fact that there are more points redeemed in the program overall also doesn't really refute that, for the same reasons. I'm sure there's many people who have points sitting in the account, who want to use them for flights - but they couldn't find availability, so they burned them on a non-Classic Reward redemption. It wouldn't change any of the stats you mention, but it still doesn't mean they found Classic Reward availability.

I just don't think there is enough conclusive evidence, number based or otherwise, to go beyond the anecdotal. Mainly because Qantas won't ever release a proper breakdown. As someone who stares at the Qantas website for multiple hours at least three days a week, I'd personally say I'm seeing less availability than before. Of course, this is purely anecdotal and not backed up by statistics.

Is it impossible to find availability? Definitely not, and I make the program work for me. But I'm also definitely not representative of the average traveller and it would be ridiculous for me to say that it works for everyone as a result.
Definitely agree with this, I think the data presented by evanb actually re-inforces the fact that Qantas has already reduced the number of Classic Rewards flights available as people start using their points on Classic+. The jump in the number of points required for a Classic+ redemption compared to a classic reward yet an equal number of points redeemed per member points towards less seats being redeemed at a higher average price.

Sure, there might be demand through more members for Qantas to increase pricing but that doesn't mean there isn't going to be a decent erosion of membership loyalty over the coming years as the number of opportunities to make high-value flight redemptions reduce and the cost to make redemptions increase.

Personally, I echo a lot of other sentiments on here around a noticeable drop in reward availability especially in premium cabins over the past 3 months. Even routes which have always been known as providing good J availability out of Australia (e.g. CGK, MNL) have really dried up to an odd smattering of dates released in an unpredictable way.

Looking at Oct, Nov for this year the availability for reward flights on more popular routes is to be honest dismal. It used to be very possible to get J rewards looking at non-peak dates 10 months out now the multi-city provides very few J rewards and so often they are Jetstar business when you click into them.

Sure, the die-hard of us departing Australia will look to get flights to Asia to then connect onto partner reward availability. But beside the complexity and novelty of this, if we're being forced to do this does focusing on Qantas points really make sense?
 
What difference does it make? You can earn points on non-QF activities, whether those be partner airlines or non-airline partners, so if we only look at a narrow range of redemptions should you then consider that against a narrow range of earnings? If points are fungible in earning they are fungible in spending!

In terms of what flights or rewards people are redeeming on one need to consider the opportunity cost. Some other posters argue that they're redeeming on parter airlines. A big difference between an airline offering a reward on their own metal is that they control the opportunity cost whereas they don't on a partner. People also forget that they don't control partner inventory but also that they must compensate partners when customers redeem on partners (and vice versa).

I'm not sharing that data to refute your point but simply argue that a redemptions have skyrocketed because earnings have skyrocketed because membership has skyrocketed! While we might not be getting what we were, a large number of people are being attracted to the program thereby concentrating it. Without more flights there can't be more rewards offered, hence the price increasing. The point that I'm arguing is that the inherent success via growth of QFF is outstripping supply. That's not sustainable, so prices will increase. That's the headline: too many points chasing too few goods!
The argument that QF hasn't increased capacity therefore there's no more reward seats makes no sense, because the airline controls exactly what supply goes to market - there is no actual block on Qantas releasing more Classic Reward seats, except their profit targets and rev management. They could simply increase the proportion of reward seats per flight they release.

From Australia: total number of passengers carried by Qantas 2023 | Statista, Qantas carried 45.73 million passengers in 2023 - if, in the absolute best-case scenario, they both released and sold their oft-repeated 5 million Classic Reward seats (which isn't realistic as it's including QF, JQ and partners), that's just over 11% of seats sold. Considering reward seats either sell out before final cash fares or the plane goes out without selling some seats (causing last-minute rewards to become available, which are effectively distressed inventory), what's stopping them from increasing this percentage to say, 15%? The numbers are a bit bogus, because the 5 million is on all Qantas partner airlines and Qantas, and also, it'd be a bit dumb to say every single reward seat made availabile was redeemed through QFF. But the point stands - capacity isn't a restriction on reward seats unless there's a fixed percentage of seats that are made reward seats. TLDR: Supply issue can be fixed, but it's not in Qantas' revenue management teams' short-term interest.

As a solution, it could be that Qantas guarantees at least 5% of seats in each cabin is made as a reward seat - how many flights average a load factor of 95%?

For an A380, thats 1 F, 3 J (rounded down), 3 PE, 17 Y. For a 787 that's just 2 J, 1 PE and 8 Y. How many times are flights going to go out with less than that sold as full fare - not including upgrades. In peak periods - possibly? QF2 tomorrow (1 Feb) has F2, J9, W5, and Y9. Apart from Y (which we don't know as it's beyond 9), all figures fit - on a weekend flight from London - Sydney to get back for the 2nd week of school...

The issue isn't capacity. Qantas can choose to release more - and it chooses not to.

Also, we're talking about Qantas having a Classic Reward availability problem. I do agree that inflation is a factor, and demand for the program has increased - the increase in points costs makes a lot of sense, and realistically is very minor. But earning points on non-QF activities for flights is kind of the point sold to members - is it an issue of the people signing up, the advertising, or something else? Not sure there. But the good mostly being advertised to QFF members is flights, so in my mind it's reasonable that the average member is able to get those goods. And they often can't at this time - not at the costs advertised.
 
But the good mostly being advertised to QFF members is flights, so in my mind it's reasonable that the average member is able to get those goods. And they often can't at this time - not at the costs advertised.

The average member can get flights. There are pages and pages and pages of available flights. Most may be domestic flights, and they may not be the flights that most people want, but there are plenty of flights available at the advertised prices.
 
The argument that QF hasn't increased capacity therefore there's no more reward seats makes no sense, because the airline controls exactly what supply goes to market - there is no actual block on Qantas releasing more Classic Reward seats, except their profit targets and rev management. They could simply increase the proportion of reward seats per flight they release.

From Australia: total number of passengers carried by Qantas 2023 | Statista, Qantas carried 45.73 million passengers in 2023 - if, in the absolute best-case scenario, they both released and sold their oft-repeated 5 million Classic Reward seats (which isn't realistic as it's including QF, JQ and partners), that's just over 11% of seats sold. Considering reward seats either sell out before final cash fares or the plane goes out without selling some seats (causing last-minute rewards to become available, which are effectively distressed inventory), what's stopping them from increasing this percentage to say, 15%? The numbers are a bit bogus, because the 5 million is on all Qantas partner airlines and Qantas, and also, it'd be a bit dumb to say every single reward seat made availabile was redeemed through QFF. But the point stands - capacity isn't a restriction on reward seats unless there's a fixed percentage of seats that are made reward seats. TLDR: Supply issue can be fixed, but it's not in Qantas' revenue management teams' short-term interest.

As a solution, it could be that Qantas guarantees at least 5% of seats in each cabin is made as a reward seat - how many flights average a load factor of 95%?

For an A380, thats 1 F, 3 J (rounded down), 3 PE, 17 Y. For a 787 that's just 2 J, 1 PE and 8 Y. How many times are flights going to go out with less than that sold as full fare - not including upgrades. In peak periods - possibly? QF2 tomorrow (1 Feb) has F2, J9, W5, and Y9. Apart from Y (which we don't know as it's beyond 9), all figures fit - on a weekend flight from London - Sydney to get back for the 2nd week of school...

The issue isn't capacity. Qantas can choose to release more - and it chooses not to.

Also, we're talking about Qantas having a Classic Reward availability problem. I do agree that inflation is a factor, and demand for the program has increased - the increase in points costs makes a lot of sense, and realistically is very minor. But earning points on non-QF activities for flights is kind of the point sold to members - is it an issue of the people signing up, the advertising, or something else? Not sure there. But the good mostly being advertised to QFF members is flights, so in my mind it's reasonable that the average member is able to get those goods. And they often can't at this time - not at the costs advertised.
It was 51.8 million in 2024. Something you're missing is that classic rewards isn't just reward seats but also includes upgrades. A big chunk of those classic rewards are redeemed as upgrades many of which are only confirmed in the last 24 hours.

Yes, capacity is an issue. If they simply make more reward seats available in advance it means less revenue. They run with a systemwide load factor of 83%. That's an average, so every flight that goes out full one goes out 66%. Challenge is that it's not easy to predict this given challenges with IROPS. At the same time, many long haul flights operate with payload restrictions, often the result of on the day conditions, so when your flight is only gong out 90% full it doesn't mean they could fill the rest.

But still, it's too many miles chasing too few goods. How to deal with that is the question. If you want more rewards and more cheap rewards then expect other factors will change, like reduction earnings dramatically (that's what we've seen in the US with more aggressive push towards spend based systems).
 
Looking at Oct, Nov for this year the availability for reward flights on more popular routes is to be honest dismal. It used to be very possible to get J rewards looking at non-peak dates 10 months out now the multi-city provides very few J rewards and so often they are Jetstar business when you click into them.

This x100!

In October there's very little if any, direct MEL to SIN CR seats even on QF economy.

Either you're forced to go with JQ (who wants that?!), transit via SYD, or opt for CR+.

Rewind a year ago, and you'd probably get 4 x CR economy seats on QF direct.
 
This x100!

In October there's very little if any, direct MEL to SIN CR seats even on QF economy.

Either you're forced to go with JQ (who wants that?!), transit via SYD, or opt for CR+.

Rewind a year ago, and you'd probably get 4 x CR economy seats on QF direct.
Yep, completely agree with you on this - one of the routes that I keep an eye on and it is really frustrating how poor the availability is on this.


It was 51.8 million in 2024. Something you're missing is that classic rewards isn't just reward seats but also includes upgrades. A big chunk of those classic rewards are redeemed as upgrades many of which are only confirmed in the last 24 hours.

Yes, capacity is an issue. If they simply make more reward seats available in advance it means less revenue. They run with a systemwide load factor of 83%. That's an average, so every flight that goes out full one goes out 66%. Challenge is that it's not easy to predict this given challenges with IROPS. At the same time, many long haul flights operate with payload restrictions, often the result of on the day conditions, so when your flight is only gong out 90% full it doesn't mean they could fill the rest.

But still, it's too many miles chasing too few goods. How to deal with that is the question. If you want more rewards and more cheap rewards then expect other factors will change, like reduction earnings dramatically (that's what we've seen in the US with more aggressive push towards spend based systems).
I can definitely understand that Qantas is trying to maximise their revenue by modulating the availability of reward seats. I fully expect that to be the case over peak periods such as Christmas, Easter and school holidays. I think we could all expect that QF1 to be very close to 100% LF in the first week of July, or the week before Christmas. I wouldn't expect to be getting premium reward seats in these situations, but if you have the case as raised above where there are routes in non-peak outbound times (Oct, Nov) with zero CR availability then Qantas revenue is either magically expecting 95% LF (which historic BITRE says isn't going to happen) or they are simply getting excessively greedy.

I think the cracks in that short term philosophy of over balancing QF profits with QFF availability will start to show as CR+ takes over and classic rewards become increasingly reduced and people start realising that the program has drifted too far into QF's favour.

For the 'points obsessed' of us (realistically anyone reading these threads), I think most of us are going to naturally prefer a rewards program that provides a constant and predictable stream of premium reward seats at a set date into the future (whether that be T-7, T-14, 330, 355, 365, etc.). This isn't going to suit everyone, of course (as others have mentioned) maybe it's more like 180 days or 90 days that we want reward availability. Having the chance of an upgrade 24 hours before is a nice concept but nothing to bank on, and from what I've experienced and read Qantas is hardly dishing out every spare seat on last minute reward upgrades.

For the non-points obsessed they're going to be starting to wondering why it's taking even longer to save enough points to fly economy with a CR+ redemption, or if they do happen to get a CR redemption why the taxes are getting so much higher.

To your last point of the customers want more rewards and more cheap rewards - of course. The problem in this case is that Qantas is offering less rewards and more expensive rewards. There's a balance to be struck of course between those two factors and one I am sure Qantas has many people analysing to figure out which one lands in Qantas' favour but keeps customers just happy enough to put up with Qantas. And perhaps Qantas' whole strategy in all of this is making 2c+/pt redemptions so difficult to achieve that people start spending their points on CR+ or toasters - reducing the average redemption value for the customer and increasing the overall profit margin on points for Qantas. A win for big corporate and a loss for the customer.
 

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