My take is no on the minimum seat guarantee. As someone noted above thread, having a min. seat guarantee, will mean that once the min. guarantee quota is released, QF does not release any more and say we have fulfilled our obligation of min. seat guarantee. Now the other side of this is, given there is no publicly available data on how many CR seats are released per service, we do not know if QF is releasing ANY CR seats on a given flight. There is no way for Joe Public to know this and introducing min. seat guarantee is not going to change that (and is not intended to change the situation as well).
The way CR seat releases work (according to my limited understanding is), as of now, there are a few CR seats released per route and depending on the FF's status - they get to see them at various points in time during the year. I'm assuming a P1/WP would get first dibs (as they get to see the seats first when logged in) then a SG, then a PS and so on. There are some seats that *everyone* (who may not even a QFF) can see. I have not included CL in my understanding statement above, because, I have always thought that CLs are a different level of customers (not necessarily flyers) to QF and may or may not be the regular passenger type flyer that relies on CR seats.
The major issue that I see is, not just seeing/getting 1 seat - it is getting 'N' seats. Say 4 seats for a family or 2 seats for a couple etc. As someone who flew almost all trips on points in 2024, (I burned around 500k QF points)I did not have a major issue in getting the CR seats I wanted. I travel solo, so it is always 1 seat in Y (or some times J, if Y seats are not available to convert) for me. Also, I was WP until Dec last year, so I could either find seats on the website (first dibs for P1/WP according to my understanding) or call CC and request a CR seat release. 7/10 times the CR seat released worked in my favour. It is worth noting that the international destinations I fly to are most SIN, KUL, CMB, MAA, BLR, DEL. Not high demand routes (such as US/UK/EU) from a AU pax perspective.
Changing the current system to make a min. seat guarantee may also introduce 'panic bookings' - pax will book now when seats are available and later decide if you really want to make that trip or not. Cancelling/changing the trip at/to a later date (hence paying a penalty) is also beneficial to QF as they can charge penalty (as points). Now what we don't know (or we will ever know) is if the cancelled/changed CR seats are put back into the CR pool for someone else to book.
I don't think I'm seeing many benefits in having a min. seat guarantee that will change the current CR booking situation, I ACK that the majority of the pax are unable to book CR seats and have heaps of points (via CC signups, utilities etc), however, introducing min. seat guarantee is not going to make those pax's situation any better than what it is right now.
I don't know what the right solution is, but current system doesn't work and the min. seat guarantee system may not work either. But introducing to testing it out will only make it more challenging to secure CR seats. For instance, QF introduced CP seats as a trial basis. Few months down the line we saw a messaging from QF that our FFs are LOVING the CP program and their ability to purchase seats for them and their loved ones to their dream destination blah blah blah and we are looking forward to rolling it out to many destinations etc. I can't honestly find one FF (that I know of) is happy with the CP seats.
So my hunch is min. seat guarantee might become the next CP.