Well, having given Melbournian a heads up about some runway works on 16 in Melbourne....guess who got caught out...by exactly the issue I predicted.
The A380 can't land on 27 as a matter of course. If the runway is wet, or there is any downwind, it won't be possible at all. It's marginal unless there is a substantial westerly wind, and normally you'd never land on it unless the wind exceeded the crosswind limits for landing on 34/16. The numbers today all came up orange on the application...so no go.
Runway 16 has a CAT III ILS installation, which allows landings in fog. But, at the moment, the 16 ILS is out of service, and the runway threshold is displaced by 360 metres, whilst the lighting system is being replaced with LEDs. The problem is that that means that there is no precision approach available for heavy aircraft (in particular the A380) whilst this work is going on. The alternative approaches to 16 are all non precision, and drop you off at about 500 feet above the ground...which is normally quite adequate, even with the displaced threshold.
This morning we saw patchy low cloud down to 200 feet, with the cloud base below the alternate criteria. So, that basically meant that you needed a full alternate (i.e. one that you carry all the way to the ground), plus it also meant that there was a substantial chance of any individual approach (to 16) not being visual that the minima, and having to go around. Sometimes carriage of Avalon as the alternate might fix the legalities of this, but today that was also below the criteria.
We watched this all night, and at about 150 miles from Sydney decided that it was not going to miraculously improve, and ducked in for a splash and dash (or as close as we could get to it). Arrived about 90 minutes later, and on the approach on to 34 became visual about 100 feet above the minima. Of course, the day didn't look too bad to those on the ground, so we heard the standard grumbles. If I could have continued safely I would have done so, but it simply was not prudent. This was the 38th time I've done the sector, and the first diversion.