Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[MooTime]

You must be thinking of the UK.

Will be interesting to see how it pans out there (we should know within a month or two). We can then make decisions on the basis of some fact.

Yes, but obviously pro-rate based on population as UK I think had 27,000 new cases the other day.
But yes interesting to see where there numbers head with their increasing vac rates.

I know Israel has upto 500 a day now after being at zero & they have ~50% vac rate with pfizer.

 

[Pushka]

You must be thinking of the UK.

Will be interesting to see how it pans out there (we should know within a month or two). We can then make decisions on the basis of some fact.

Keeping everything crossed that the UK experience is a good learning one as long as Morrison doesn't go into his rhetoric that we have to see what happens locally first.

 

[jakeseven7]

True, if this Delta was a real belter of fleeting spreading, wouldn't the numbers be in the 1000's now.
How did us in Vic close it down if it was so fleeting?

ah nonsense this fleeting, couldn't the old alpha strain remain live & spread via surfaces at one point? I emeber an add on TV showing how easy it is to spread from your hand onto surfaces etc (infra red type images)... have the vaccine uptake seen a big uptake in Syd over last 2 weeks? As it did in Melbourne during recent outbreak?

Maybe, just thinking alternate view, we have to just get used to now hundreds if not 1000's of cases...I mean we as a country gave it a decent old crack of covid zero, but it just seems too hard long term. Majority of ppl just can't be bothered with constant lockdowns, only to go back in lockdown at some later point again & again. Nothing changes. Business suffering, travel industry stanglehold ah I don't know.

Let's join other parts of the world & bubble away with semi low cases, just seems we have ground hog day/month.

Yes actually they’ve found out that chance of surface transmission is microscopically low. Yet my hands are still recovering from pouring alcohol on them all the time

 

[antycbr]

Yes actually they’ve found out that chance of surface transmission is microscopically low. Yet my hands are still recovering from pouring alcohol on them all the time

You need better aim.

 

[Lynda2475]

Yes actually they’ve found out that chance of surface transmission is microscopically low. Yet my hands are still recovering from pouring alcohol on them all the time

But cold and flu spread from surfaces easily so at least you are helping in that regard. I haven't left the house without hand sanitizer since Feb 2020, it cant hurt.

 

[justinbrett]

The problem with covid, when the chances are catching it is so low, you can say any mitigation strategy works, as its hard to prove otherwise.

This goes equally to things like 3 day lockdowns as it does to being OCD about hand sanitizer. They might work, but they might be a waste of time.

Correlation is not causation or something like that.

 

[Lynda2475]

No, they really don't need to get a 'real' coffee'.

Disagree, having 15+ unmasked people to your home for an illegal party then lying about who was there is completely different than picking up a no contact take-away coffee from a window whilst masked during your daily solo exercise walk (especially since you order and pay for it online, then pick up cup from a window, no face to face contact with a person).

If you take away the ability for people to go for a walk to get exercise and fresh air (especially when they are living in LGAs with zero cases) there will be a revolt, and ultimately less compliance.

Even during Melbourne's lockdowns you could go for a walk and buy a take-away coffee. Its the little things that keep people sane and willing to comply with restrictions.

 

[moa999]

I wonder also if all this talk about Delta being mild has people less worried?

Where is that talk?

 

[moa999]

You must be thinking of the UK.

Will be interesting to see how it pans out there (we should know within a month or two). We can then make decisions on the basis of some fact.

Infections are already blowing up (27k yesterday - almost more than Australia has had all pandemic)

Hospitalisations ticking up, but there is a lag effect.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the UK NHS in dire straights by this time next week, and pressure on Boris to back down from his Freedom Day

 

[justinbrett]

Infections are already blowing up (27k yesterday - almost more than Australia has had all pandemic)

Hospitalisations ticking up, but there is a lag effect.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the UK NHS in dire straights by this time next week, and pressure on Boris to back down from his Freedom Day

Don't believe the media hype

 

[moa999]

Don't believe the media hype

Hospitalisations have hit 400+.
After trending as low as 100.

Deaths are a further lag (and possibly reduced by vaccine and better treatment).
But if you run out of capacity in the hospital system, deaths trend up again.

 

[justinbrett]

Hospitalisations have hit 400+.
After trending as low as 100.

Deaths are a further lag (and possibly reduced by vaccine and better treatment).
But if you run out of capacity in the hospital system, deaths trend up again.

UK has around 1500 in hospital
Australia has 97 in hospital with a population of roughly 1/3 population (so lets say the equivalent would be 300 in the UK)


Difference is we're averaging 20-30 cases a day, UK is averaging 20,000-30,000.

That's a remarkable effort to only have 5x the hospitalisation rate with 1000x the cases.

 

[N860CR]

Hospitalisations have hit 400+.
After trending as low as 100.

Deaths are a further lag (and possibly reduced by vaccine and better treatment).
But if you run out of capacity in the hospital system, deaths trend up again.

Ok so vaccinations don’t work? What’s the plan then? We carry on like this forever?

 

[justinbrett]

Ok so vaccinations don’t work? What’s the plan then? We carry on like this forever?

The UK is a shining example of how well the vaccinations work (and they're not even finished rolling it out). A bit of covid zero mentality leaking outside of Australasia I think.

 

[Lynda2475]

Australia has 97 in hospital

And to get to the number that "need" to be in hospital you have to deduct some (if not all) of the Qld component, since they send all positives to hospital even if asymptomatic.

 

[justinbrett]

And to get to the number that "need" to be in hospital you have to deduct some (if not all) of the Qld component, since they send all positives to hospital even if asymptomatic.

Certainly not all, they have 1 in ICU

 

[Lynda2475]

Certainly not all, they have 1 in ICU

Fair call haven't paid too much attention to details there of late.

But they have 49 in hospital which is more than NSW has, so given lower case load they shouldn't have that many

 

[jase05]

Updated chart. Shows it is at a knife edge. If today is a statistical outlier, great. However if not, then the projection is going to be too optomistic.

The lockdown has been going on long enough to start to see its effects. My view is that it doesn’t seem to be suppressive enough. Sydney is going to need a tightening, and no, an extra week is not enough.

 

[justinbrett]

View attachment 252304

Updated chart. Shows it is at a knife edge. If today is a statistical outlier, great. However if not, then the projection is going to be too optomistic.

The lockdown has been going on long enough to start to see its effects. My view is that it doesn’t seem to be suppressive enough. Sydney is going to need a tightening, and no, an extra week is not enough.

You can't pick and choose to focus on a particular day, you have to take the trend, you can clearly see two big dips in the last couple of days as well. Today was the Monday swaps, which probably held out from the weekend.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Yes, but obviously pro-rate based on population as UK I think had 27,000 new cases the other day.
But yes interesting to see where there numbers head with their increasing vac rates.

I know Israel has upto 500 a day now after being at zero & they have ~50% vac rate with pfizer.

Israel said that about half the people contracting Covid now were vaccinated but that hospitalisation was down 90% in that group and that was the important statistic. I think at some point this is what we have to live with. We will catch Covid but won’t get seriously ill . That’s the hope anyway.