Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[bcworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1422361757763342339

 

[lovetravellingoz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1422361757763342339

So 82 infectious in the community. And upto a possible 47 more.


Deaths now rise to 71

Hospitalisations also now rise to 250.



43 of the 53 in ICU have not been vaccinated.

 

[Must...Fly!]

we will have a bizarre situation where everyone in the rest of Australia can visit NZ but be locked out of NSW

No more bizarre than WA's current border settings.

Only NT, TAS, NZ can enter without quarantine.

ACT can enter without approval (but must register via G2G).

All other jurisdictions must receive special approval before travelling.

COVID-19 coronavirus

Find information and advice on the COVID-19 coronavirus for the community and businesses in Western Australia.

www.wa.gov.au

 

[nutwood]

Unfortunately I think this is what exactly will happen. The other states and territories lol like sticking together and NSW will be a leper colony until next year. No way any states will open up to them for months and some border restrictions are actually being strengthened as we have seen in recent days. I’d imagine when the NZ travel bubble potentially restarts that NSW are not part of it either and we will have a bizarre situation where everyone in the rest of Australia can visit NZ but be locked out of NSW

I have to agree that this how it appears to be viewed by the other States but is it actually feasible? WA is quite self contained, due to history and the tyranny of distance, but I would have thought NSW was integral to the operation of the country?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I have to agree that this how it appears to be viewed by the other States but is it actually feasible? WA is quite self contained, due to history and the tyranny of distance, but I would have thought NSW was integral to the operation of the country?

Is it? And could that function be taken by say Melbourne who has a comparable infrastructure? Sydney has tourism, but let's face it, the Chinese market is probably going to be non-existent going forward anyway.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Is it? And could that function be taken by say Melbourne who has a comparable infrastructure? Sydney has tourism, but let's face it, the Chinese market is probably going to be non-existent going forward anyway.

So we should investigate changing the way our country moves every and all essential items (not just food and medicine - but infrastructure components, and anything else you can think of) for how long...for ever?

COVID is coming back to Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Darwin, Perth, Canberra, Hobart, Launceston, Bendigo, Ballarat, Albury, Wagga, Townsville, Cairns, Alice Springs, Kalgoorlie, Mildura, Mt Isa, Geraldton, Albany, and I could go on and on and on. You get the idea. Anyone who doesn't recognise this reality is simply delusional. And frankly, if anyone in our governments believe it's possible to keep it out forever, then we are all in for a LOT of pain.

 

[jase05]

So we should investigate changing the way our country moves every and all essential items (not just food and medicine - but infrastructure components, and anything else you can think of) for how long...for ever?

COVID is coming back to Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Darwin, Perth, Canberra, Hobart, Launceston, Bendigo, Ballarat, Albury, Wagga, Townsville, Cairns, Alice Springs, Kalgoorlie, Mildura, Mt Isa, Geraldton, Albany, and I could go on and on and on. You get the idea. Anyone who doesn't recognise this reality is simply delusional. And frankly, if anyone in our governments believe it's possible to keep it out forever, then we are all in for a LOT of pain.

Not forever but until vax rates are high enough Australia wide which looks like the end of the year at best

 

[bcworld]

Anyone who doesn't recognise this reality is simply delusional. And frankly, if anyone in our governments believe it's possible to keep it out forever, then we are all in for a LOT of pain.

I don't believe anyone is suggesting keeping it out forever. I think it's very clear that we are in a position where vaccination will SOON allow alternative approaches to be taken. However we've had an approach that has operated for, what, 16 months now, that can continue until that point. I'm not sure if what you're saying is just abandon vaccination targets and go now?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

By Jessica Riga, ABC

Victorian COVID update​

4 new locally acquired COVID cases, but here's a bit more information from Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton.

• There are no new exposure sites
• Two of the four local cases are linked to Young and Jacksons
• One is a workplace contact of the Moonee Valley cluster, the other is a household contact from the Coolaroo cluster
• This brings the outbreak total to 220 cases
• 10 cases now in hospital, 3 in intensive care, with 1 on ventilator
• Over 90 per cent of close contacts in the outbreak have been cleared
• 3000 people remain to be cleared

 

[nutwood]

Is it? And could that function be taken by say Melbourne who has a comparable infrastructure? Sydney has tourism, but let's face it, the Chinese market is probably going to be non-existent going forward anyway.

Interesting point but I suspect a bit simplistic, there's a bit more to Sydney than tourism. We are talking the whole of NSW, including all the border regions.

 

[Milboo]

I'm flummoxed by this. Is the suggestion that Australia surges forward and just abandons NSW? How can the country operate if every visit to NSW results in fourteen days hotel quarantine?
Perhaps NSW could become a "virtual State", never visited physically?

Guess it also means that NSW should stop the heavy lifting for overseas arrivals and the federal government can distribute passengers/ flights equally between all capital cities.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I don't believe anyone is suggesting keeping it out forever. I think it's very clear that we are in a position where vaccination will SOON allow alternative approaches to be taken. However we've had an approach that has operated for, what, 16 months now, that can continue until that point. I'm not sure if what you're saying is just abandon vaccination targets and go now?

No, it's not what I am saying. But what I am saying is that a staged lifting of restrictions should not be dismissed as not taking COVID-19 seriously, as was suggested by the this post.

Striving for zero before lifting restrictions when we know for an absolute fact that zero is not a long term goal is economic suicide. And the health goals are questionable too (relative to zero COVID) as we have safe and effective vaccines to protect from the worst outcomes of COVID-19.

 

[jb747]

If lockdowns are even part of the published national or state strategy going forward, even localised ones, then it's pretty obvious that tourism in to Australia from overseas is completely dead. Who the hell would choose to come here for a holiday.

I think tourism within Australia will also be dead. Already on its death bed.

Unfortunately I think this is what exactly will happen. The other states and territories lol like sticking together and NSW will be a leper colony until next year. No way any states will open up to them for months and some border restrictions are actually being strengthened as we have seen in recent days. I’d imagine when the NZ travel bubble potentially restarts that NSW are not part of it either and we will have a bizarre situation where everyone in the rest of Australia can visit NZ but be locked out of NSW

Given that Queensland, Victoria, and SA all have long land borders with NSW, it strikes me as nothing beyond wishful thinking to believe that if it runs riot in NSW that it would remain bottled up there. ACT seems to have proven that there's something in their air that keeps it at bay though.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So it would seem that NSW is to now take a different path. Current outbreak to not be eliminated, but to be initially limited and then as vaccination rates eventually rise restrictions to be eased in stages. Living with Covid (Which we will all need to do eventually, but the real question is what % of the population needs to be fully vaccinated to do so?).

How quickly will largely depend on the willingness of the community at large with AZ.

50% vaccination seems to be an initial target. But what the easings at that level would be is anyone's guess.

Berejiklian wants NSW to reach 6 million vaccines by end of August​

"In New South Wales at the moment, we have 3.9 million jabs of vaccinations that have been provided, and thank you to everybody taking up the vaccine.​

​

"We know that 10 million jabs gives us 80% of the adult population vaccinated. By the end of August, I'd like to see New South Wales record 6 million jabs. 6 million jabs is roughly half the population with at least one or two doses.​

​

"That gives us additional options as to what life looks like on 29 August."​

Though personally if that is based on the UK I would be a little apprehensive as in the UK about 20% have also have had Covid (ie that boosts the heard immunity effect). So easing restrictions too quickly could see Delta rip through those who are not vaccinated.

And if it is only 50% with at least only one dose I would be even more apprehensive.


I very much doubt if any other state would move to living with covid at such a rate and so that is likely to lead to NSW living in a NSW Bubble for perhaps many months before it can merge back with the rest of Australia. Particular issues are going to be faced by all the border communities. Plus the ACT will be a bubble within the NSW bubble.

If the NSW community does embrace AZ at the required level then it will get to a higher fully vaccinated rate much quicker than the rest of Australia. So how much AZ gets into arms in NSW over say the next fortnight is going to be very informative and vital for this strategy. If too many wait for Pfizer it will undermine the strategy.

While the large ongoing outbreak is in itself a problem, it also may well be the incentive to achieve a much earlier significant fully vaccinated rate.

 

[bcworld]

50% vaccination seems to be an initial target. But what the easings at that level would be is anyone's guess.

Saying '50, 60, 70%' is her new thing.

When pressed on accepting rising hospitalisations and deaths she suddenly changed to '70, 80%'.

I think 50% is a carrot for which there will be very little reward.

 

[33kft]

If this is the approach going forward, wouldn't it make more sense to lower the vaccine asymmetry so that at very least the state can stay open to itself? Pulling in regional doses to metro leaves regional NSW in the same position as other states now, significantly less coverage than metro Sydney and without any real defence should Sydney choose to open up in any meaningful way except to itself.

This is a long term strategy, there will be no opening until at least November given the peak of first shots won't even arrive until September, and there's at least one month in-between shots regardless of manufacturer. I'd be more inclined to leave metro as it is as it's clear there won't be any reopening soon, get good vaccination in regional areas that aren't yet heavily infected, allow border towns to go back to relative normality, secure metro / regional routes and limit the spread to areas with lower capability to offer health services.

People seem to believe there is something about the current system that is keeping the regional areas covid-free. If it's any more than luck and circumstance I can't see it? It only takes one metro spreader with legitimate business in regional towns to set it off.

 

[Must...Fly!]

WA probably couldn't deal with an outbreak of COVID-19 with 70% or even 80% vaccinated such is the state of the public hospital system.

Ambulance Perth - Ambulance Activity and Response Times - St John Ambulance

St John Ambulance is committed to providing high quality ambulance service for Western Australian's. Learn more of our ambulance activity in WA online.

stjohnwa.com.au

 

[Lynda2475]

So it would seem that NSW is to now take a different path. Current outbreak to not be eliminated, but to be initially limited and then as vaccination rates eventually rise restrictions to be eased in stages.

This is not new, has always been the plan. Easing of some of the curent restrictions has never been dependent on zero cases.

Post automatically merged: Aug 3, 2021

there will be no opening until at least November given the peak of first shots won't even arrive until September, and there's at least one month in-between shots regardless of manufacturer.

Only 21 days for Pfizer (that is less than a month).

 

[bcworld]

So listening to the PM press conference currently going on and the data presentation.

Effectively it is being said that 50 and 60% vaccination rate can only be used to control (delta) outbreaks alongside stringent measures (which were described as being Vic stage 4 style restrictions).

 

[Lynda2475]

So listening to the PM press conference currently going on and the data presentation.

Effectively it is being said that 50 and 60% vaccination rate can only be used to control (delta) outbreaks alongside stringent measures (which were described as being Vic stage 4 style restrictions).

Well also recommending that roll-out change to vaccinate more younger people (although that needs much more Pfizer). The older cohorts (50+) have had long enough, we shoudlnt be waiting for their rates to increase in order to start on the 20-39s.

VAccinating more younger people asap will give a bigger benefit over all.