Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

You're only looking at the risk of dying. Not the risk of large numbers of people - some for long periods of time - suffering due to covid even when surviving it. The teacher might not die, but they could be off work for a month. And students could have two or three of their teachers each off for a month. That might not be less disruptive than home schooling.

And you are only looking at the physical toll and not the emotional stress - and the word stress is a total understatement - of a far greater number of people who don't get covid but suffer from it.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Does anyone have info on any modeling about what restrictions could be lifted in NSW before we have 70/80% double vaccinated and what the effect on the R eff would be ?

What would the hospitalization/ ICU/ Ventilated rates be dependent on what restrictions are lifted at levels less than the Doherty modeling which showed 50K in hospital and 11,500 ICU admissions nationwide if Delta spreads at 50% Vaccination coverage?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Yes. There is not a whole lot of evidence to suggest that “long covid” is any worse than recovery time from any number of fairly mild viruses.

I was floored with glandular fever about 5 years ago. Was off work (without pay) for a month. Should probably have gone to hospital, truth be told - but stupid male in their 20s, 'tis nothing but a flesh wound.

It took me around 18 months to start feeling remotely like myself again in terms of work output and mental alertness. I am not trying to belittle long covid but I remember my Doctor at the time telling me something like that for each day you go back to work before you should, you will likely add at least a week to your long term recovery. I listened to a degree, but I just couldn't sit at home and do nothing any more, and that cost me as well.

I do believe there is merit to the argument that, as you say, long COVID is not significantly different to most viral illnesses in terms of recovery. It does however impact a lot more people, at otherwise productive stages of their life. Media seem to be pretending that long term recovery is something new when it comes to viruses that hit your immune system for six.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Does anyone have info on any modeling about what restrictions could be lifted in NSW before we have 70/80% double vaccinated and what the effect on the R eff would be ?

What would the hospitalization/ ICU/ Ventilated rates be dependent on what restrictions are lifted at levels less than the Doherty modeling which showed 50K in hospital and 11,500 ICU admissions nationwide if Delta spreads at 50% Vaccination coverage?

No modelling but I think NSW authorities might now be considering doing things like increase household visitors single or double dosed, maybe open schools 1 or 2 days per week rotations, maybe allow more retail to open.

I did see another poster put up some modelling on one of these threads .....

 

[Seat0B]

And this is how to lose the willing compliance of your citizens. They have spent more than 19 hours waiting for a test over 2 days and still have not been tested.

 

[Must...Fly!]

And this is how to lose the willing compliance of your citizens. They have spent more than 19 hours waiting for a test over 2 days and still have not been tested.

View attachment 255431

To be honest, I wouldn't have gone back a second time unless I had symptoms.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Does anyone have info on any modeling about what restrictions could be lifted in NSW before we have 70/80% double vaccinated and what the effect on the R eff would be ?

What would the hospitalization/ ICU/ Ventilated rates be dependent on what restrictions are lifted at levels less than the Doherty modeling which showed 50K in hospital and 11,500 ICU admissions nationwide if Delta spreads at 50% Vaccination coverage?

moa999 (post 25866) posted this link to some modelling...

Progression of the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

Plot of cases and estimated R_eff for the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

chrisbillington.net

 

[N860CR]

And this is how to lose the willing compliance of your citizens. They have spent more than 19 hours waiting for a test over 2 days and still have not been tested.

For interests sake, are they vaccinated ?

 

[trevella]

But what is being advocated is the complete abolishment of all restrictions so that we can 'live freely'. Sweden tried that and abandoned it. Taiwan and Singapore had that to some degree

“Complete abolishment” “to some degree”?

Um, OK…

The argument is that if we have complete freedom all businesses will be open and thriving.

It would be nice if you would stop mischaracterizing the “argument”. Nice, but it’s obviously never going to happen.

 

[jakeseven7]

No modelling but I think NSW authorities might now be considering doing things like increase household visitors single or double dosed, maybe open schools 1 or 2 days per week rotations, maybe allow more retail to open.

I did see another poster put up some modelling on one of these threads .....

Outdoor dining etc like Canada I heard was in consideration. And more perks for people who are double vaccinated.

 

[Seat0B]

Didn't want to say this but I'll be honest. This struck a chord with me as it's exactly what I'm going through this week, relationship of 4 years all but over. Would like nothing more than to be at home with family and friends, but alas it is not possible - and that's a great shame. And to add, the travel and other various restrictions have necessitated putting a few big things on hold, which have significantly contributed to the breakdown of the relationship

Sending you empathetic understanding @Must...Fly!
Seat Son in a similar position but in Dubai. His partner of 4 years left him, took their cat, to pursue a new relationship. He was oblivious and planning to propose to her. They survived lockdown in a tiny apartment that was only ever intended as a place to sleep. Both lawyers. Her work as an employment lawyer very quiet. His in dispute litigation very very busy. She, as a Brit, able to go home to family and have family visit them in Dubai for most of the pandemic. Him, well everyone here knows about his travels in the wide world but inability to get home. You can only imagine how it feels to know he told his sister that he just needs some time home with us all, but especially his father and me to rebalance and centre himself - the one thing we can’t give him. A 30 min phone call to Dubai costs $280. The UAE govt blocks FaceTime, What’s Ap, Messenger etc. A 6-7 hr time difference. He had a VPN that helps a bit, but it means he has to call us, never the other way round.

so truly, my sympathy and support for your predicament

edit: she took their cat, not their car- my fat fingers or autocorrect,

 

[Seat0B]

I’m sorry. And I hope you’re doing ok. I went through the same during the worst of a previous lockdown and it’s hard. Being alone with 10 years of memories to process isn’t healthy. Actually one of the hardest things I’ve ever been through to be honest. But you’ll come out a lot stronger.

And my empathetic support to you too @N860CR Time does help healing, but the whole situation is coughola.

 

[jakeseven7]

Ok because it’s been a bit of a heavy week here is a bit of a (sad?) laugh at NSW trying to explain an authorised worker…

 

[Seat0B]

To be honest, I wouldn't have gone back a second time unless I had symptoms.

To be honest, I agree. But these are highly community minded compliant people who were told to get tested due to being at a coffee shop at the same time as Bouncer Guy. For them to say ‘enough’ is a very big deal. And from the news, I know many other Canberrans have had the same experience and probably reached the same conclusion. Probably sooner than my family members did, TBH.

And the next thing is that ACT Health, the lollies, police, social media etc will all be castigating ‘people who should have got tested’ if something goes awry.
The whole thing is just beyond ridiculous.

 

[SydneySwan]

I was floored with glandular fever about 5 years ago. Was off work (without pay) for a month. Should probably have gone to hospital, truth be told - but stupid male in their 20s, 'tis nothing but a flesh wound.

It took me around 18 months to start feeling remotely like myself again in terms of work output and mental alertness. I am not trying to belittle long covid but I remember my Doctor at the time telling me something like that for each day you go back to work before you should, you will likely add at least a week to your long term recovery. I listened to a degree, but I just couldn't sit at home and do nothing any more, and that cost me as well.

That really resonated with me! I had glandular fever in my 20s and spent a month off work. It was 1983 and friends and work thought I was skiving. Consequently returned to work too early and then had to have more time off. Not the best time of my life.

 

[Seat0B]

For interests sake, are they vaccinated ?

Yes Both in their 60s. One has both AZ and one is due for second AZ in 3 weeks.

probably time to start factoring that in before wasting literally 2 full days of people’s time. Both employed in private sector do not sure if they get paid leave for 2 days to sit in a line to not be tested.
Grrrrrrr

 

[Seat0B]

Ok because it’s been a bit of a heavy week here is a bit of a (sad?) laugh at NSW trying to explain an authorised worker…

Needed that, thanks!

 

[moa999]

Think it just underlines how difficult it is to come up with a list, and even then the list creates arguments.

And how similar on the whole the Vic and NSW settings are.

 

[Pete98765432]

Isnt the index case for the ACT outbreak a Canberra resident, who travelled to a hotspot and back?

For what it's worth, this guy has outed himself and denies having been outside of the ACT in the last three months.
'I don't want anyone to die because of me': COVID-19 'patient zero' speaks out | The RiotACT

 

[Ric]

That really resonated with me! I had glandular fever in my 20s and spent a month off work. It was 1983 and friends and work thought I was skiving. Consequently returned to work too early and then had to have more time off. Not the best time of my life.

I had glandular fever about 30 yrs ago and is still suffering the consequences for it!