Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

NSW Health were very concerned last few days testing rates have been low and probably lots of asymptomatic cases walking around yet to front up

I wouldn't say low still averaging 23k a day - the Tuesday numbers are always lower (because relates to Sunday testing when less venues open). In last 7 days (7-13th Aug) 161,942 test done. Apart form Vic, no other state gets anywhere near 20k tests a day.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I feel better about today's NSW numbers, because if you take out the overseas arrivals, its down to 7, and whilst 3 unknown is concerning they may yet still be able to be linked once some more tracing is done.

Auckland has 13 new community cases today, almost double Sydney.

Though the context there is that NZ did not know they had any cases (for 102 days) and so no one would have been acting in ways to prevent transmission, whereas in NSW cases are occurring in an environment where everyone knows that the virus is active.


The NSW sample size is small at present and what makes up the cases each day bounces around a lot. Plus whether a day is up or down may in itself mean little, though always wants a lower number. & days gets a better feel.


Trend data

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Not sure the testing criteria, but a testing blitz sought in regional Vic.

On your question:
“We encourage anybody in Bendigo, Ballarat or Geelong and anyone across regional Victoria, if you’ve got even the mildest of symptoms, please come forward and get tested,” Andrews said.


My comment:

The testing blitz in hotspot suburbs in Melbourne which was opened up to anyone could be tested (ie did not have to have a symptom to be tested) only detected 6 cases despite the tens of thousands of extra people tested. So after that Sutton stated in one of his briefings that they would not pursue testing of asymptomatic people as they could bet better value by testing the symptomatic and close contacts (who may be asymptomatic). With the current backlog still causing delays in test results adding more asymptomatic testing would further increase delays of test results of those more likely to be positive.

 

[Lynda2475]

The graph from SMH.com.au gives me comfort, unknown source cases are worrying but NSW obviously doing a better job or track and trace and publishing where cases have been etc:

 

[Gremlin]

I think its obvious there are breaches left, right and centre in all states of CovidSafe operating requirements.

They should increase the fine amount to something serious.

I'd booked to go to a restaurant the other day. When I got there it was clear that they were in breach of CovidSafe requirements. I said to the manager I wasn't going to eat there as a result and pointed out a number of things, including how close the tables were. He shrugged and told me that if he followed the CovidSafe requirements his capacity would have to be reduced and he wouldn't be doing enough covers to keep his business open. He said the alternative was a risk of a fine and that he couldn't win either way. I left, but I felt some degree of empathy for him.

Post automatically merged: Aug 13, 2020

The two are not equivalent. The sampling rate needs to be factored into your risk assessment.

Yes. Completely agree. Those two practices look like what's occurring in a couple of different states, both claiming "top level" compliance.

 

[jakeseven7]

I wouldn't say low still averaging 23k a day - the Tuesday numbers are always lower (because relates to Sunday testing when less venues open). In last 7 days (7-13th Aug) 161,942 test done. Apart form Vic, no other state gets anywhere near 20k tests a day.

NSW Health were the ones worrying about the testing levels, not me, I’m not an epidemiologist

 

[jakeseven7]

I'd booked to go to a restaurant the other day. When I got there it was clear that they were in breach of CovidSafe requirements. I said to the manager I wasn't going to eat there as a result and pointed out a number of things, including how close the tables were. He shrugged and told me that if he followed the CovidSafe requirements his capacity would have to be reduced and he wouldn't be doing enough covers to keep his business open. He said the alternative was a risk of a fine and that he couldn't win either way. I left, but I felt some degree of empathy for him.

I agree, it's happening everywhere..... NSW is just in the spotlight for bad behaviour because they have bubbling community transmission but have decided to let it run (for now, I suspect they will be forced into stronger action very soon)

Oh dear.....

------

Sydney school accused of completely ignoring virus safety before cluster


The Sydney school linked to a fast growing COVID-19 cluster has been accused of flouting COVID-19 safety practices before news of the outbreak emerged.

The Tangara School for Girls in Cherrybrook has now been linked to 19 coronavirus cases.

A parent of one of the students claimed to 2GB’s Ben Fordham that the school had been going against health advice and holding extracurricular activities and events.

“According to this parent, the school has not been practicing COVID-Safe measures. They say the primary school has been doing weekly choir with no social distancing, they’ve continued compulsory mass, students are still taking communion by the hand and teachers are able to take it by the tongue,” Fordham said.

The parent also claimed there was no social distancing in place at assemblies and a primary school food stall run by the high school students was held last Wednesday.

Coronavirus NSW live updates

Home Affairs Minister, Peter Dutton, has hit out at the "childish" way the situation between the Queensland and NSW border is being handled.

www.news.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

If they want people to wear masks stop mucking around and just make it compulsory... Who cares how 'strong' the messaging/begging is....

Surely they have been able to stockpile enough for essential workers by now?

Why the delay?

--------------


More mandatory mask warnings for NSW as government begs for compliance

NSW residents have been issued another warning that masks could become mandatory if people don't follow the current health advice.

Transport Minister, Andrew Constance, said everyone needs to wear masks to prevent the state from going into a "Melbourne-style lockdown".

"We need everyone to practise good physical distancing, great hygiene. If you have a runny nose or a sniffle, go and get tested. We want to put all the measures in place alongside masks," he told reporters on Thursday.

"It’s really important we start to see more people wear them. The Premier, in terms of her very strong messaging, and, you know, this is the type of leadership this state needs, let’s get the masks on.

Coronavirus NSW live updates

Home Affairs Minister, Peter Dutton, has hit out at the "childish" way the situation between the Queensland and NSW border is being handled.

www.news.com.au

 

[Gremlin]

If they want people to wear masks stop mucking around and just make it compulsory... Who cares how 'strong' the messaging/begging is....

Why the delay?

Because Gladys is playing politics. If case numbers settles themselves down then she can claim that her suppression strategy works. If she has to enforce further restrictions, then it'd be like admitting that her baby is ugly. But if she only 'strongly suggests' those actions, she hasn't enforced the restrictions so it's not an issue with the strategy, rather one of community compliance and engagement.

 

[Gremlin]

I know this has been a touchy subject elsewhere in the forum. I'm not going to talk specifics as a result, but there's been some pretty harrowing commentary today at the aged care royal commission. Now's not the time for politicisation. There's a very, very serious issue that needs to be owned and addressed otherwise more people will die unnecessarily.

I'm so glad my loved ones are not in that environment right now. I can only empathise with those whose loved ones are unacceptably at greater risk than they should be...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Today's Vic DHHS Report:


Media release
13 August 2020


Victoria has recorded 278 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 15,863.

The overall total has increased by 217 due to 61 cases being reclassified – largely due to duplication.

Within Victoria, 64 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 214 are under investigation.

There have been eight new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday: One woman in her 50's, two men in their 70's, two women and two men in their 80's and one man his 90's.

Four of the eight new deaths are linked to known outbreaks in aged care facilities. To date, 275 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

In Victoria at the current time:

• 3068 cases may indicate community transmission
• 7866 cases are currently active in Victoria
• 664 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 37 in intensive care
• 7493 people have recovered from the virus
• More than 1,895,566 tests have been processed – an increase of approximately 20,951 since yesterday

Of the total cases:

• 14,556 cases are from metropolitan Melbourne, while 957 are from regional Victoria
• Total cases include 7636 men and 8156 women
• Total number of healthcare workers: 2073, active cases: 1140
• There are 2018 active cases relating to aged care facilities

Active aged care outbreaks with the highest coughulative case numbers are as follows:

• 201 cases have been linked to Epping Gardens Aged Care in Epping
• 184 cases have been linked to St Basil’s Homes for the Aged in Fawkner
• 153 cases have been linked to Estia Aged Care Facility in Ardeer
• 131 cases have been linked to Kirkbrae Presbyterian Homes in Kilsyth
• 119 cases have been linked to BaptCare Wyndham Lodge Community in Werribee
• 108 cases have been linked to Outlook Gardens Aged Care Facility in Dandenong North
• 99 cases have been linked to Estia Aged Care Facility in Heidelberg
• 89 cases have been linked to Arcare Aged Care Facility in Craigieburn
• 87 cases have been linked to Twin Parks Aged Care in Reservoir
• 82 cases have been linked to Glendale Aged Care Facility in Werribee

In Victoria there are currently 84 active cases in residential disability accommodation.

• Total Resident cases: 20; Total Staff cases: 64
• Active cases in NDIS homes: 59 (17 residents)
• Active cases in ‘transfer’ homes (State regulated/funded*): 24 (3 residents)
• Active cases in state government delivered and funded homes: 1

Cases currently linked to key outbreaks are as follows:

• 202 cases have been linked to Bertocchi Smallgoods in Thomastown
• 82 cases have been linked to Australian Lamb Company in Colac
• 61 cases have been linked to the Woolworths Distribution Centre in Mulgrave
• 59 cases have been linked to the Linfox warehouse in Truganina
• 45 cases have been linked to Golden Farms Poultry in Breakwater
• 29 cases have been linked to Ausfresh in Broadmeadows

* The Victorian Government last year transferred 547 disability residential homes and staff to five non-government providers which represents approximately 43 per cent of the accommodation market. Residents in these homes are NDIS clients, and these residential services are currently funded as part of Victoria’s annual $2.5 billion contribution to the NDIS. These homes are scheduled to be transferred to the NDIS by the end of the year.

The total number of individuals receiving disability accommodation/respite services in Victoria is approximately 6,500

 

[Pushka]

The aged care homes situation is a difficult one for me. Mum, when she went into one, had a DNR and "no extraordinary measures to be used to restore life" put into place. She died over three years ago after a stroke and at the time being her nearest relative (older brother was away); I had to confirm with the home that she was not to be taken to hospital, and given I was there within an hour of the stroke, she could have been given the clot buster drug and saved her life. Obviously she died about 10 days later still in the home. An awful passing in the last three days.

I know that she would have refused being taken to hospital if she was alive now. She would refuse to leave the place she enjoyed (even though I didnt) and the people whom had cared for her. Even if it meant she would not survive. She was 86 and still in full control intellectually.

So who has the right in this situation to assume that they know best for each individual?

 

[get me outta here]

A group of Canberrans who were stuck at the NSW-Victoria border for nearly a week has made it back to the territory.

They were greeted by police at a so-called roadside reception centre in Hall (at the ACT border), who took their details and gave them a care package with food they could take into their 14-day quarantine.

All people who arrived had donned masks and were not allowed out of their cars.

There were 25 people expected to pass through the reception centre across 17 cars, ACT Police Detective Superintendent Mick Calatzis said. Ms Cahill Lambert told police she was dismayed at the process.

"I said to the police officers, I [was] very embarrassed about how many resources have been put into this when it should have just been a simple process," she said.

 

[Lynda2475]

This article is an interesting read: Super-spreaders could be key to controlling COVID-19

As it is behind the firewall the key points are:

• Mounting evidence suggests the vast majority of COVID-19 cases may be spread by as little as 10 per cent or fewer of those infected.
• the much-watched "R number" – the reproduction number, which represents how many people each sick person passes the virus on to on average – is a less effective measure of the epidemic, as a small group of people are doing a disproportionate amount of spreading.
• In NSW, the Victorian man who brought COVID-19 back to the state in July had one of the highest infection levels scientists in the state have seen. The man infected at least 34 people after visiting the Crossroads Hotel in Sydney’s south-west.
• "This virus moves in clusters," said Professor Catherine Bennett, Deakin University’s chair of epidemiology.
• With Victoria's lockdown stopping people meeting socially, “the greatest risk for super-spreading is amongst those workplaces that are still open, and among people who are flouting the restrictions,”

 

[get me outta here]

Not being political, but the amount of tax payers money put into this failed sector should be explained. For example this :
“ Health Minister Greg Hunt said there had been six versions of the aged care plan since March 13 and $850 million pumped into training, protective equipment and infection control”.

I know this has been a touchy subject elsewhere in the forum. I'm not going to talk specifics as a result, but there's been some pretty harrowing commentary today at the aged care royal commission. Now's not the time for politicisation. There's a very, very serious issue that needs to be owned and addressed otherwise more people will die unnecessarily.

I'm so glad my loved ones are not in that environment right now. I can only empathise with those whose loved ones are unacceptably at greater risk than they should be...

 

[Lynda2475]

There were 25 people expected to pass through the reception centre across 17 cars

So not the hundreds in the press beat-up?

 

[get me outta here]

It seems so. The Canberrans do have till Sunday to ‘get through’.

HOWEVER,
“ Canberrans have been cleared to leave but the people whose final destination is in New South Wales remain in limbo.

Tasmanians in transit

Ruth Steel and her husband Philip had been living in Tasmania for three years after 18 years calling New South Wales home.

He's a scientist but the coronavirus meant that universities and research institutes in Tasmania were not recruiting, quite the contrary, so the couple decided to move lock, stock and barrel back to New South Wales.

She said they got the overnight ferry and drove ashore in Melbourne at 6.30 on Friday. They had the correct permit to re-enter NSW from Victoria.

So they drove straight to the border, with no diversions to anywhere near a COVID-19 hot-spot.

"We drove off the ship and straight to the border."

There was a police check just north of Melbourne but Ms Steel said all their papers were in order.

They drove on but 20 minutes before reaching the border in Wodonga, her husband got an email saying their entry permit had been cancelled.

They went to the check-point and the police told them they were were still awaiting advice so the couple should go away for an hour and return.

"The police intimated there was an issue."

When they returned they were told the permit had been cancelled.

So they were stuck - and are still stuck”.

So not the hundreds in the press beat-up?

 

[Gremlin]

So not the hundreds in the press beat-up?

My understanding is there are a few hundred, but they are travelling in "shifts" over the course of four days.

 

[Flying mermaid]

So not the hundreds in the press beat-up?

More people will come. It wasn’t a beat up. The number of ACT people was always 100 never hundreds Also some poor people abandoned their cars and possessions with friends and flew back, because they had to be in Canberra e.g. a doctor. If it could be resolved in 6 days it could have been resolved in 1 or 2. A disgraceful bureaucratic exercise.

Edit - 42 people have registered their intention to drive back.

Post automatically merged: Aug 13, 2020

My understanding is there are a few hundred, but they are travelling in "shifts" over the course of four days.

The number for ACT was always 100 - there are others from NSW who have been caught in the snap cancelling of permits.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So with Qld, SA having a few days of zero new cases, are we ok to call them successes in squashing community transmission without going into a lockdown? Putting them in the same category as ACT.

Fingers crossed.