Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[moa999]

The WA ambulance chart is very surprising.
Particularly in a year where flu cases are way down.

 

[Lynda2475]

Rumour Of border closure to UK and Sth Africa but once again just kicking the can down the road as it will be across the world within weeks. Im wondering if this new threat was what brought on the vaccine timetable.

UK strain already in Singapore, USA and Europe likely elsewhere too. Dont think Feds can refuse to allow Aussies to return despite what Vic and WA want, implement stricter controls sure, leave aussies stranded abroad with no legal way home is against UN rules.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

UK strain already in Singapore, USA and Europe likely elsewhere too. Dont think Feds can refuse to allow Aussies to return despite what Vic and WA want, implement stricter controls sure, leave aussies stranded abroad with no legal way home is against UN rules.

Do you actually know what Victoria wants?

I ask because what you keep posting does not reflect at all what Chen , Andrews and Foley the Vic Health Minister have stated?





Mr Andrews said there needed to be a comprehensive strategy to manage the risk from overseas travellers.

"You’ll never make this risk-free, but there needs to be a strategy that deals with the multiple risk points with multiple policy solutions," he said.

"There needs to be steps taken at every point to ensure as best we can that this super infectious strain of this virus does not get into the Victorian community and therefore into the Australian community."



PS: And yes 5 cases of the new strain already in Melbourne, as well as in virtually all Australian States.

 

[N860CR]

Honestly, does it really matter which “strain” is appearing. We’re incarcerating these people when they arrive in the country (in hotels, not hospitals - despite their big scary new strain) so regardless of whether they have the original strain, the new one from Africa or the one that makes you jump on the bed and sing Whitney Houston; they’ll all be in quarantine.

The states are obviously concerned that their quarantine procedures aren’t up to it. This isn’t surprising, the fact that we’re nearly a year in and still using the same procedure just shows we haven’t learnt a great deal.

 

[Lynda2475]

You stated: There are only two active clusters - Northern Beaches (includes Croydon and Wollongong) So if not linked then why claim they are the one cluster?

Croydon and Wollongong are linked to each other by the restaurant where cases dined at tbe same time. Not knowing patient zero for first NB case back on 11th Dec doeent negate the links between NB, Croydon and Wollongong. Further you will notice the mystery cases do not mention InnerWest LGA (which contains Croydon) because it has been linked via CBD to NB.

Do you actually know what Victoria wants?

The rumour was posted by Puska not me.

That said, as i posted this morning the Vic deputy premiere (didnt catch her name, Blonde woman, possible is deputy health minister) interviewed on ABC news on Tues night specifically mentioned Vic wanting to table suspending UK arrivals due to new strain, the sound bite was repeated multiple times. I never once quoted Prof Chen.

The fixation on strains and origin of arriving passengers is unhealthy and a distraction. Either our processes are capable of keeping covid out of the community or they need improving, strain is completely irrelevant.

 

[drron]

How Victoria is preventing Covid spread.This was the Reception for a flight from CBR this morning at Gate 22 MEL.
..

.

That plane was then her flight to MCY and it was due to leave 15 minutes after these pics were taken.she was told to go away.

Now to all those people in QLD who think the Government there is doing everything possible to keep them safe from Covid well the only people to meet her flight from MEL were friends and relatives of other passengers.Just like the good old days.

 

[Lynda2475]

ABC is reporting new priorities for vaccine roll-out from ScoMo's presser today, differs slightly from the link i posted earlier this week, good to see the revisions now see adults ahead of minors, and that middle aged are not behind younger adults.

Phase 1a - up to 1.4m doses
* Quarantine and border workers (70,000)
* Frontline health care worker sub-groups for prioritisation (100,000)
* Aged care and disability care staff (318,000)
* Aged care and disability care residents (190,000)

Phase 1b - up to 14.8m doses
* Elderly adults aged 80 years and over (1,045,000)
* Elderly adults aged 70-79 years (1,858,000)
* Other health care workers (953,000)
* Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people > 55 (87,000)
* Younger adults with an underlying medical condition, including those with a disability (2,000,000)
* Critical and high risk workers including defence, police, fire, emergency services and meat processing (196,000)

Phase 2a - up to 15.8m doses
* Adults aged 60 to 69 years (2,650,000)
* Adults aged 50-59 years (3,080,000)
* Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people 18-54 (387,000)
* Other critical and high risk workers (453,000)

Phase 2b - up to 16m doses
* Balance of adult population (6,643,000)
* Catch up any unvaccinated Australians from previous phases

Phase 3 - up to 13.6m doses
* < 18 if recommended (5,670,000)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The Vic deputy premiere (didnt catch her name, Blonde woman) interviewed on ABC news on Tues night specifically mentioned Vic wanting to table suspending UK arrivals due to new strain, the sound bite was repeated multiple times.

The fixation on strains and origin of arriving passengers is unhealthy and a distraction. Either our processes are capable of keeping covid out of the community or they need improving, strain is completely irrelevant.

Perhaps I said these things on another AFF thread:

- the PM asked AHPPC to look at (or was it the CMO to consult AHPPC on) the end to end process from arrival at the airport of exiting country, so a pre-test is clearly before arrival at the airport. Also the NSW CHO a few days ago was quite clearly against a pre-test.
- even if a pre-test was considered, how long would it take to get the genomics?
- as it has now spread to other countries, what if another country testing capability is not able to provide genomics?
- to this point in time 14 days quarantine is the scientific method of 'fully' treating the risk.

Right now my guess is that they might move to more regular testing of quarantine staff and possibly extending quarantine to 21 days (I note HK moved to 21 days - so perhaps there might be evidence that the UK strain takes significantly longer to be infectious) but need to pay 14 days

It will be interesting to see what is proposed by AHPPC and what National Cabinet agrees or not.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

interviewed on ABC news on Tues night specifically mentioned Vic wanting to table suspending UK arrivals due to new strain, the sound bite was repeated multiple times.. I never once quoted Prof Chen.

Pity as Prof Chen is the person that actually tabled Victoria's position federally. He has been quoted extensively and also spoke in detail.

Dan Andrews also spoke in detail again on it this morning. Basically repeated what Chen said on Tuesday.




Being sound bites on the news, they would not have course been selective in which sound bites they played? And after a sound bite is it better to keep going with that or to read more fully of what might actually be occurring?

Pity that the sound bites did not evidently include the information that Vic were seeking a national strategy on it and that a raft of possible measures could be implemented. Chen had also stated that he wanted approval to do some detailed modelling on it (As in to assess the outcome of various alternative measures).

 

[Lynda2475]

Also the NSW CHO a few days ago was quite clearly against a pre-test.

Dr Chant wasnt against a pre-test per se but raised concerns that a test is point in time status and doesnt mean a passenger wont develop covid on the flight or shortly after arrival.

At this mornings presser she further clarified that NSW health cant mandate tests in other countries. Vulnerable Aussies may not be able to access a test, unless airlines/airport provide rapid tests at airport. Even with testing or vaccination pre-flight, Dr Chant still sees 14 days of quarantine and testing on arrival and again before release as necessary, and wants a robust system irrespective of strain a traveller may have been exposed to.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Dr Chant wasnt against a pre-test per se but raised concerns that a test is point in time status and doesnt mean a passenger wont develop covid on the flight or shortly after arrival.

At this mornings presser she further clarified that NSW health cant mandate tests in other countries. Vulnerable Aussies may not be able to access a test, unless airlines/airport provide rapid tests at airport. Even with testing or vaccination pre-flight, Dr Chant still sees 14 days of quarantine and testing on arrival and again before release as necessary, and wants a robust system irrespective of strain a traveller may have been exposed to.

You might be right, but the steady stream of concerns or cons sounds like clearly against a pre-test to me.

 

[oz_mark]

Perhaps I said these things on another AFF thread:

- the PM asked AHPPC to look at (or was it the CMO to consult AHPPC on) the end to end process from arrival at the airport of exiting country, so a pre-test is clearly before arrival at the airport. Also the NSW CHO a few days ago was quite clearly against a pre-test.
- even if a pre-test was considered, how long would it take to get the genomics?
- as it has now spread to other countries, what if another country testing capability is not able to provide genomics?
- to this point in time 14 days quarantine is the scientific method of 'fully' treating the risk.

Right now my guess is that they might move to more regular testing of quarantine staff and possibly extending quarantine to 21 days (I note HK moved to 21 days - so perhaps there might be evidence that the UK strain takes significantly longer to be infectious) but need to pay 14 days

It will be interesting to see what is proposed by AHPPC and what National Cabinet agrees or not.

Just because National Cabinet agrees on something, doesn't mean the states will stick to it. We've seen plenty of evidence of that.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just because National Cabinet agrees on something, doesn't mean the states will stick to it. We've seen plenty of evidence of that.

That is true..........unfortunately.

 

[Lynda2475]

National Cabinet is tomorrow and unless the rules have changed it is the Premieres and Scomo and not Prof Chen who will be in attendance and will agree (but more likely not given the whole hotspot precedent) any changes to policy for overseas arrivals.

If Vic Deputy Premier wasnt on message maybe that is why Andrew's is coming back from leave early.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I do wonder whether Victoria's interest in this end to end process review of returning Aussies and the UK strain is seeking stricter measures on international crew testing/quarantine that no other State seems to be keen to implement.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Either our processes are capable of keeping covid out of the community or they need improving, strain is completely irrelevant.

Well after the recent international leakages in Qld today, possibly WA this week, NSW with several over the last month or so, as well as the various leakages that have occurred in Australia and New Zealand I think it is clear that our processes are not capable of keeping Covid 19 out of the community.

Sooner or later new breaches will occur.

Hopefully less as systems are improved, but the experts seem to be of the opinion that as the new "UK and South African" Strains are more transmissible that that there is a need to enhance the current measures (which by the way is what Victoria is calling for).



As to the strain being irrelevant. The various experts that I have read on it do not seem to believe that it is irrelevant. They may of course disagree on what measures are required.

Tony Blakely, an epidemiology professor at the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, said if Australia did not close its border to high-risk countries, authorities had to consider putting more measures in place to reduce the chances of it leaking into the community.

"We know that the virus will occasionally sneak through quarantine, but this one is even more likely to sneak through because it's that much more transmissible," he told ABC Radio yesterday afternoon.

"So not only is it a threat if it gets in, but it's more likely to get in than previous versions of the virus on a traveller."

Expert calls for immediate vaccination of Australian border workers to stop mutant strain

A leading epidemiologist is calling for Australian border workers to be "immediately and urgently" vaccinated against COVID-19, to help prevent the highly infectious strain from the UK spreading into the community.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Flashback]

Rumour Of border closure to UK and Sth Africa but once again just kicking the can down the road as it will be across the world within weeks. Im wondering if this new threat was what brought on the vaccine timetable.

Given it was detected in 60+ countries many weeks ago I think that ship has sailed... The strain goes as far back as being detected in September so no surprise there.

 

[33kft]

This isn’t surprising, the fact that we’re nearly a year in and still using the same procedure just shows we haven’t learnt a great deal.

All levels of government are poor at managing all sorts of situations, I think the surprise would be if they were suddenly competent. When is any level of Australian government internationally notable for their handling of anything - economy, law and order, international relations, environment, social issues, need I continue? We'll drag ourselves through it the way we do anything else, with great mediocrity and plenty of pain.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

National Cabinet is tomorrow and unless the rules have changed it is the Premieres and Scomo and not Prof Chen who will be in attendance and will agree (but more likely not given the whole hotspot precedent) any changes to policy for overseas arrivals.

If Vic Deputy Premier wasnt on message maybe that is why Andrew's is coming back from leave early.

I heard Jacinta speak in her presser. What she said in those is not what you have reported. Maybe the TV news were very selective in their sound bite?



Prof Chen participates in a different group, one that will have been most influential on what is decided tomorrow. But I assume you know this?

However maybe not since as you seem to have a low regard for his expertise and knowledge in this area.

AHPPC

Who’s at the virtual table?​

There are 25 people on the committee: 20 government officials and five invited experts, supported by an unknown number of public servants. A full list of committee members is listed at the bottom of this article.

The committee is chaired by Murphy, who is supported by four deputy chief medical officers: Paul Kelly, Nick Coatsworth, Michael Kidd and Jenny Firman.

Along with eight chief health officers from the states and territories, there are also medical representatives from the Australian Defence Force, the New Zealand Ministry of Health, Communicable Diseases Network Australia, Public Health Laboratories Network, Darwin’s National Critical Care and Trauma Response Centre, and the chief nursing and midwifery officer.

The five invited experts are:

Allan Cheng, a professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at Monash University and director of the Infection Prevention and Healthcare Epidemiology Unit at Alfred Health.

Jodie McVernon, director of epidemiology at Melbourne University’s Doherty Institute, who is an expert at clinical vaccine trials, epidemiologic studies and mathematical modelling of infectious diseases.

James McCaw, a professor in mathematical biology and infectious diseases epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne.

Lyn Gilbert, an infectious disease physician, clinical microbiologist and senior researcher at the Marie Bashir Institute for Emerging Infections and Biosecurity, and at Sydney Health Ethics at the University of Sydney.

Martyn Kirk, an epidemiologist at the Australian National University with experience in state, territory and federal health departments.

​

Cheng was invited to the AHPPC on January 20 by chief medical officer Brendan Murphy.

Cheng was also, when the Second Wave was out of control in Victoria, brought in with others to be a Deputy Chief Health Officer in Victoria. Personally I believe that Cheng was a key person in Victoria turning things around.


So personally I believe that Prof Chen is someone worth listening to and take note of his views on Covid 19 and vaccines.

Who advises the man who advises the nation on COVID-19?

By this point in the coronavirus crisis, everyone knows chief medical officer Brendan Murphy. But what do we know about the team behind him, saving Australia from catastrophe?

www.crikey.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I do wonder whether Victoria's interest in this end to end process review of returning Aussies and the UK strain is seeking stricter measures on international crew testing/quarantine that no other State seems to be keen to implement.

I am not sure I follow that as Vic has already adopted stricter measures for international crew testing/quarantine and based on what has been said will continue with them even if no other state chooses to adopt them this Friday.

Yes they have indicated that they would like other states to do this as well in their own states, but that will be up to each state what international crew measures are adopted.

The end to end process would be for additional measures on top, and may may not mean additional requirements depending on what is agreed or not at Friday's meetings

. ie pre-flight tests may or may not be adopted for countries deemed to be high risk, or even from any country.


NZ recently brought in.

​

Additional Testing Requirements for New Zealanders returning from High Risk Countries (including the United Kingdom)​

The New Zealand Government has announced travellers from the United Kingdom bound for New Zealand will be required to get a negative test result for COVID-19 within 72 hours of departing.

From 11:59 pm on 15 January 2021 New Zealand time, all travellers arriving from the United Kingdom to New Zealand, will need to provide evidence of a negative PCR COVID-19 test taken within 72 hours prior to departure, except for a very limited number of people who may be exempt.

The test adds to the measures for travellers from higher risk countries which came into force on 1 January (day zero/day one testing and stay in their MIQ room requirement until a negative test). All travellers will still need to go into 14 days managed isolation upon arrival in New Zealand and undertake the usual COVID-19 testing.​

As some Kiwis return home via Australia some commonality in requirements between Australia and NZ may be beneficial.